Folding an overpair on the flop

[Fortune 500]

Stage #617079291 Tourney ID 60940 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $30 - 2007-01-23 16:34:33 (ET)
Table: 11257830 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - HOLDEMDUMBIE ($180 in chips)
Seat 2 - JOFFSMOM ($1710 in chips)
Seat 3 - PENQUILL ($1280 in chips)
Seat 4 - BUNKERMASTER ($1610 in chips)
Seat 5 - PROUDLION ($1470 in chips)
Seat 6 - BARLAMAX ($1850 in chips)
Seat 7 - FORTUNE500 ($2450 in chips)
Seat 8 - AARTJUH ($1520 in chips)
Seat 9 - BESLIC ($1430 in chips)
AARTJUH - Posts small blind $15
BESLIC - Posts big blind $30
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to FORTUNE500 [Js Jc]
HOLDEMDUMBIE - Folds
JOFFSMOM - Folds
PENQUILL - Calls $30
BUNKERMASTER - Folds
PROUDLION - Folds
BARLAMAX - Calls $30
FORTUNE500 - Raises $150 to $150 - I think my raise is fine here. strong hand and the button
AARTJUH - Raises $285 to $300
BESLIC - Folds
PENQUILL - Folds
BARLAMAX - Calls $270
FORTUNE500 - Calls $150. Calls fine here in position, yes?
*** FLOP *** [6h 3h 5d]
AARTJUH - Bets $420
BARLAMAX - Calls $420
FORTUNE500 - Folds Right play? i dunno.

[hitorque]

i'm no expert by any means, and i'm not that good with the numbers, but it seems that there is some serious strength out there based upon the limited information we have here. it's early in the tournament so unless you had some other information about the villains i would lean toward folding on the flop and waiting for another opportunity, as hard as it is to lose the jacks and the chips. if i had sharkscoped the people and found out that they were both on super tilt and had roi's of -45%, then i might think twice.

i'm not good enough to answer the question about calling preflop. i suppose you could push but it would be much better of course with one opponent. maybe the push gets you down to one opponent. the whole decision depends on your style...

[Da GOAT]

hmm id prob shove PF. Barlamax can kiss my ass so i dont care about him in the hand (small PP prob) so he is dead money too me.

minraise from aggressor is prob enough to convince me he aint a good player.

as played on flop id shove or fold. i lean towards shoving, PFR'er c/b plus Barlamax prob has a overpair too or draw to a flush.

[mike4066]

I think your way wrong here Dagoat (although the min-raise is fish as hell)

Pushing here risks too many chips preflop.
Blinds are 15/30, you have 2k left behind why would you want to try and go broke with JJ here?
What do you think the villian has raising from the BB?
AA, KK, QQ - your dominated
AK, AQ KQ?- your a coinflip
smaller pairs? TT , 99 , 88, 77

You have no need to race this early in the SnG.

As for the play on the flop, the guy has shown strenght, by
#1 re-raising preflop
#2 putting in a 3/4 pot bet on the flop

Sure it could be a continuation bet but you have alot of chips left. This isn't Ring, you can't reload and sometimes it is about chip conservation.

When I'm thinking through things, I try and let this one go against an unknown.

[mike4066]

As for calling the raise preflop, once I call this raise I'm thinking about set value/implied odds and looking for weakness that I cna exploit.

You missed the set, and he's not showing weakness, i have a tough time thinking i'm good, and I hate myself even more If I go broke with JJ when I have alot of chips left.

[Da GOAT]

when your calling his RR PF for 150?? how are you thinking about playing the hand, if purely for set value (which your not getting on PFR but with other opp added in its ok?? if opp c/b's, 1 fold, whats your move??

lol many questions??

mike, this is a grey area hand,many lines may suit. We have near 1000 more chips than PFR and i dont see other opp calling a shove either. blinds are small correct but pot is big now and represents a nice payoff. pot say 1000, opp has 1200 left.

we get well paid for flipping, if opp has been tight soi far then i like shoving less of course.

[taipan168]

Preflop: I think this is fine. The first raise is good, on the button I play the same after two limpers. After the min re-raise there is 930 in the pot and it is 150 to call - add in the possibility of winning just one of opps' stacks and you've got correct implied odds to play for a set.

On the flop, I would normally consider an overpair on that flop a very strong hand which I'd have a hard time folding, but:
- Against a preflop re-raiser, unless I have a read that he's a donk I would give him credit for TT+, AK here.
- The other opp limp/called a raise and re-raise, and now just flat calls on the flop, this could well be a small pocket pair that has just made a set.
- If I read the HH right, this is a $30 buyin and at this level I tend to give opps a bit more credit than at a $5-$10 buyin.

Don't have time to do the analysis now but intuitively I think the fold is OK.

[gingerwizard]

we get well paid for flipping, if opp has been tight soi far then i like shoving less of course.

Depends on what you mean by well paid. I don't think $EV increase is that much with so many left in.

[Fortune 500]

- If I read the HH right, this is a $30 buyin and at this level I tend to give opps a bit more credit than at a $5-$10 buyin.

This is only a 5... which gives my hand strength, but also adds to the possibility of some donk minraising a monster OOP.

[GatorJH]

This is only a 5... which gives my hand strength, but also adds to the possibility of some donk minraising a monster OOP.

I have seen that so much lately (at the $16 level) that it is scary.

[uscheese]

hmm id prob shove PF. Barlamax can kiss my ass so i dont care about him in the hand (small PP prob) so he is dead money too me.

This kind of says it all.

[Da GOAT]

hmm id prob shove PF. Barlamax can kiss my ass so i dont care about him in the hand (small PP prob) so he is dead money too me.

This kind of says it all.

lol ah yes, when you post at midnight you say these things. its says 30 in the HH, i shove PF in a $5 here.

Ginger, by paid i mean 2:1 vs 1:1 payoff, clearly there should be no fear of flipping since you get paid much better than 50/50.

[gingerwizard]

hmm id prob shove PF. Barlamax can kiss my ass so i dont care about him in the hand (small PP prob) so he is dead money too me.

This kind of says it all.

lol ah yes, when you post at midnight you say these things. its says 30 in the HH, i shove PF in a $5 here.

Ginger, by paid i mean 2:1 vs 1:1 payoff, clearly there should be no fear of flipping since you get paid much better than 50/50.

Well if you mean payoff in chips then fine. But in $$???? Does this move have +$EV is the question, even if we assume a flip. It is rhetorrical but I may do the ICM later tonight to see.