Good draw, call or fold?

[Sprayed]

Probably a loose call here considering I have an M of ~7. However, I was trying to mix things up a little and I wasn’t seeing a lot of raising after limpers from anyone. This is, I believe, 3 tables away from the FT hence on the bubble.

BIGRAS1 has been a little quiet and his limp was probably a monster considering that he has 10bb UTG. I hit a fairly good flop (FD + gut shot SD+ two overs, but I’m discounting these as outs) so 12 outs. Since he shoves flop I would assume that he has either AK or QQ+ (more likely KK+). There’s 8963 in the pot and it costs me 5513 to call. That’s close to 2-1. I would be left with 2948 and would be almost crippled.

Using stove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.135% 51.13% 00.00% 17212 0.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 48.865% 48.87% 00.00% 16448 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

This is a flip, but I’m getting better than 33% to make this call. Call or fold?



PokerStars Game #8073924100: Tournament #41213431, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/01/22 - 19:37:37 (ET)
Table '41213431 14' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: joy_keltner (3282 in chips)
Seat 2: AAV3DD3R (7915 in chips)
Seat 3: Wardeforde (7806 in chips)
Seat 4: mr.be (8975 in chips)
Seat 5: BIGRAS1 (6163 in chips)
Seat 6: Sprayed (9111 in chips)
Seat 7: Raiders Rule (20535 in chips)
Seat 8: LaCHulita (17817 in chips)
Seat 9: Bagheera 1 (15904 in chips)
joy_keltner: posts the ante 50
AAV3DD3R: posts the ante 50
Wardeforde: posts the ante 50
mr.be: posts the ante 50
BIGRAS1: posts the ante 50
Sprayed: posts the ante 50
Raiders Rule: posts the ante 50
LaCHulita: posts the ante 50
Bagheera 1: posts the ante 50
Wardeforde: posts small blind 300
mr.be: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [Tc Jc]
BIGRAS1: calls 600
Sprayed: calls 600
Raiders Rule: folds
LaCHulita: folds
Bagheera 1: folds
joy_keltner: folds
AAV3DD3R: folds
Wardeforde: calls 300
mr.be: checks
*** FLOP *** [7c 9s 4c]
Wardeforde: checks
mr.be: bets 600
BIGRAS1: raises 4913 to 5513 and is all-in
Sprayed: ?

[dev]

I don't think your pokerstove range is accurate here. Does he push over a raise with AKo?

So, I figure it's more like 99, 77, 44, AcKc, QQ+

Hand 0: 	40.711%  	40.71% 	00.00% 	         11285 	        0.00   { JcTc }
Hand 1: 	59.289%  	59.29% 	00.00% 	         16435 	        0.00   { QQ+, 99, 77, 44, AcKc }

If you're not worried about the BB, this is a borderline call, but if you're thinking that he led minimum with some kind of hand, it's an even better call. The SB or BB can give you better odds, and if we're lucky and niether of them are on the flush draw, we're in good shape.

As it stands, with bubble aproaching and all, I think I lay this without some kind of a read on the BB. With a read, I'd look at the payout structure and all and decide from there.

[Sprayed]

I would think that villain would push all other hands outside of the range that I gave since he is short. Most would push AKo/s. However, I have seen some limp here UTG with AKo/s that's why I included it in his range.

The bb did worry me considering he would still need to act after me. However, he made a weak bet on the flop so he's either weak or setting us up to shove on his monster.

It is my opinion that you need to be aggressive and take chances on the bubble so that you can set yourself up for a good payday instead of just making it ITM.

[dev]

I would think that villain would push all other hands outside of the range that I gave since he is short. Most would push AKo/s. However, I have seen some limp here UTG with AKo/s that's why I included it in his range.

Holy tiltmonster batman! I think one would have to be out of his mind to push here with no piece/no draw. He's only into the pot for 650, and he's still got an M of ~5 if he folds.

The bb did worry me considering he would still need to act after me. However, he made a weak bet on the flop so he's either weak or setting us up to shove on his monster.

My point about the bb is that he gives you better odds. If he has a monster that's a good thing. I need him to get involved here to feel good about calling.

It is my opinion that you need to be aggressive and take chances on the bubble so that you can set yourself up for a good payday instead of just making it ITM.

No argument there.

[Sprayed]

I would think that villain would push all other hands outside of the range that I gave since he is short. Most would push AKo/s. However, I have seen some limp here UTG with AKo/s that's why I included it in his range.

Holy tiltmonster batman! I think one would have to be out of his mind to push here with no piece/no draw. He's only into the pot for 650, and he's still got an M of ~5 if he folds.

I understand what you are saying, however, his whole intention was to push over a raise preflop. If no one raised pre, then he would push the flop regardless. He's at a stage where he needs to gambol since his stack is small. He has 6k before limping and the bb is 600. This means either he's retarded or he has a monster. If he is just limping with a marginal hand and then folds, he will go through the blinds which causes his stack to go to 4500.

So, this has to be a good hand. I highly doubt that it's AK, but I have to consider it since I have seen this before and I know that it's a play that some will make. Regardless, if it's QQ+ I think I still have the odds to call.

[Slash]

I would think that villain would push all other hands outside of the range that I gave since he is short. Most would push AKo/s. However, I have seen some limp here UTG with AKo/s that's why I included it in his range.

Holy tiltmonster batman! I think one would have to be out of his mind to push here with no piece/no draw. He's only into the pot for 650, and he's still got an M of ~5 if he folds.

I understand what you are saying, however, his whole intention was to push over a raise preflop. If no one raised pre, then he would push the flop regardless. He's at a stage where he needs to gambol since his stack is small. He has 6k before limping and the bb is 600. This means either he's retarded or he has a monster. If he is just limping with a marginal hand and then folds, he will go through the blinds which causes his stack to go to 4500.

So, this has to be a good hand. I highly doubt that it's AK, but I have to consider it since I have seen this before and I know that it's a play that some will make. Regardless, if it's QQ+ I think I still have the odds to call.

I agree with sprayed. I would call though he might have A-K i really dont think so with blinds so high i think he pushes pre-flop with A-K... I put him on a high PP or set, but you have 12 outs so about 1/3 chance of hitting (i dont think pairing the jack or 10 will help) and almost 2:1 on pot odds. EZ CALL

[johnny_fish]

Preflop sucks.

Push flop.

[Sprayed]

Preflop sucks.

Push flop.

Looking back on it, I agree.

[chardrian]

It's about as easy of a call as you can get on that flop.

Preflop... neither you nor UTG really have the stacks to be cute here.

[Sprayed]

It's about as easy of a call as you can get on that flop.

Preflop... neither you nor UTG really have the stacks to be cute here.

I know. I was playing two tables of 6 max NL cash while I was playing this tourney. I saw the JTc and the UTG limped so I called without looking at all the variables. Once I was in the situation it was hard to get out.

[Sprayed]

For the results oriented folks, I folded like a cheap suit.