Final Table 99 UTG

[Sprayed]

FT and this is the first hand of the 1000/2000 100 ante level. All seem to be playing fairly well and are somewhat tight. EZBonez made a play at me earlier in the tourney that I picked off. He seems to know what he is doing but is a little tricky. I would think that he would have to have a fairly big hand to shove on an UTG. I have shown big hands throughout this tourney but I have become somewhat aggressive towards the end in order to take advantage of the bubble.

He can have a pretty big range considering he has an M of ~5. But, since I’m raising UTG I would give him 66+, AQ+ (adding 66 might be a little too broad). I have to call 13150 to win a 27050 pot. So that’s 2-1 and I need a 33% chance to win. If I run the numbers of my 99 against the range mentioned in stove I get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.262% 46.44% 00.82% 386494680 6807468.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 52.738% 51.92% 00.82% 432070128 6807468.00 { 66+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So call right?

PokerStars Game #8074936683: Tournament #41213431, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2007/01/22 - 20:38:49 (ET)
Table '41213431 12' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: EZBonez (18250 in chips)
Seat 2: Sprayed (48775 in chips)
Seat 3: BIGRAS1 (64857 in chips)
Seat 4: okbuster49 (18277 in chips)
Seat 5: Monk1 (30539 in chips)
Seat 6: RatPackCpt (47796 in chips)
Seat 7: MJKT00L (4679 in chips)
Seat 8: nyankees1325 (7230 in chips)
Seat 9: tssteve (29597 in chips)
EZBonez: posts the ante 100
Sprayed: posts the ante 100
BIGRAS1: posts the ante 100
okbuster49: posts the ante 100
Monk1: posts the ante 100
RatPackCpt: posts the ante 100
MJKT00L: posts the ante 100
nyankees1325: posts the ante 100
tssteve: posts the ante 100
tssteve: posts small blind 1000
EZBonez: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [9h 9d]
Sprayed: raises 3000 to 5000
BIGRAS1: folds
okbuster49: folds
Monk1: folds
RatPackCpt: folds
MJKT00L: folds
nyankees1325: folds
tssteve: folds
EZBonez: raises 13150 to 18150 and is all-in
Sprayed: ?

[THaC]

So we're getting almost 2:1 here right? I call this, mostly because you have a decent chipstack and can afford to make this call to potentially bust a player. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think with 9 bbs he's shoving more than TT+ - you'll see a lower pair here enough (along with overs)

[zenbitz]

I think it's an insta call, although it would be interesting to see your equity if you drop the low pairs (sort of worst case scenario). Probably makes it about even.

[Sprayed]

I think it's an insta call, although it would be interesting to see your equity if you drop the low pairs (sort of worst case scenario). Probably makes it about even.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.330% 40.43% 00.90% 286576428 6406680.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 58.670% 57.77% 00.90% 409504068 6406680.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Zidane18]

FT and this is the first hand of the 1000/2000 100 ante level. All seem to be playing fairly well and are somewhat tight. EZBonez made a play at me earlier in the tourney that I picked off. He seems to know what he is doing but is a little tricky. I would think that he would have to have a fairly big hand to shove on an UTG. I have shown big hands throughout this tourney but I have become somewhat aggressive towards the end in order to take advantage of the bubble.

He can have a pretty big range considering he has an M of ~5. But, since I’m raising UTG I would give him 66+, AQ+ (adding 66 might be a little too broad). I have to call 13150 to win a 27050 pot. So that’s 2-1 and I need a 33% chance to win. If I run the numbers of my 99 against the range mentioned in stove I get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.262% 46.44% 00.82% 386494680 6807468.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 52.738% 51.92% 00.82% 432070128 6807468.00 { 66+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So call right?

PokerStars Game #8074936683: Tournament #41213431, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2007/01/22 - 20:38:49 (ET)
Table '41213431 12' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: EZBonez (18250 in chips)
Seat 2: Sprayed (48775 in chips)
Seat 3: BIGRAS1 (64857 in chips)
Seat 4: okbuster49 (18277 in chips)
Seat 5: Monk1 (30539 in chips)
Seat 6: RatPackCpt (47796 in chips)
Seat 7: MJKT00L (4679 in chips)
Seat 8: nyankees1325 (7230 in chips)
Seat 9: tssteve (29597 in chips)
EZBonez: posts the ante 100
Sprayed: posts the ante 100
BIGRAS1: posts the ante 100
okbuster49: posts the ante 100
Monk1: posts the ante 100
RatPackCpt: posts the ante 100
MJKT00L: posts the ante 100
nyankees1325: posts the ante 100
tssteve: posts the ante 100
tssteve: posts small blind 1000
EZBonez: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [9h 9d]
Sprayed: raises 3000 to 5000
BIGRAS1: folds
okbuster49: folds
Monk1: folds
RatPackCpt: folds
MJKT00L: folds
nyankees1325: folds
tssteve: folds
EZBonez: raises 13150 to 18150 and is all-in
Sprayed: ?

I fold preflop i think. DOnt like getting forced to make the type of decision u have been forced to make here. Early in FT with your sized stack i like to play very tight and wait for it to become 5 handed before making any real moves. of course i will still steal with KQ on the button or whatever, but i dont like the 99 UTG raise here.

After u have raised, i think i fold to the reraise. u have only lost 5000. No way he can push all in with anything but two overcards or a bigger pair.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I play the exact same and call.

[Phantaroth]

i think i play it the same... I'd consider limping though, as usually you wanna iso here, but the blinds are big enough that a UTG limper might scare off most action anyway...

[cobere]

Definitely a call. I'd say he is probably pretty strong to make this move since in addition to the factors already mentioned, there's two shorter stacks at the table that he could wait out and move up. Instead, he's making a move now.

But even if you really tighten his range up, you still are getting the right pot odds to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.245% 32.11% 01.14% 168228804 5963178.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 66.755% 65.62% 01.14% 343809864 5963178.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Like THaC said, you can afford to lose this pot. And if you win, you've got a slight chip lead over BIGRAS. Play to win.

[johnny_fish]

Yes, call. nh.

[chardrian]

Call.

[Sprayed]

So this hand and my other hand are examples of this:

Well, that's just it. You have to take all risks with positive expectation. Playing for survival doesn't work with top heavy payout structures.

So if you can get a flip with 41% equity and 40% pot odds, be happy to get all your chips in.

Sure. I'll take any risk as long as equity > pot odds.

[bode]

so, what did he show?

[Sprayed]

KK, but mind you I wasn't asking because I lost (not RO). I was asking to ensure that my calculations were correct and that I had the right mindset. I went on to finish 5th.

[Zidane18]

KK, but mind you I wasn't asking because I lost (not RO). I was asking to ensure that my calculations were correct and that I had the right mindset. I went on to finish 5th.

y even play the hand?

[Sprayed]

Because, I have a stack and 99 is a decent hand. You have to play to win.

[Zidane18]

Because, I have a stack and 99 is a decent hand. You have to play to win.

but its 9 handed and u r utg and u dont want to jepordise ur stack.

start of final table is all about playing like a rock IMO and 99 UTG is not enough. it is a small pair

[Sprayed]

99 becomes a lot stronger as the blinds go up. I wouldn't think that it would be necessarily wrong to fold, but a raise is ok too. I should have explained more clearly that we are not just starting the FT, only the blinds went up and it's the start of the fourth hour I believe.

[Zidane18]

99 becomes a lot stronger as the blinds go up. I wouldn't think that it would be necessarily wrong to fold, but a raise is ok too. I should have explained more clearly that we are not just starting the FT, only the blinds went up and it's the start of the fourth hour I believe.

I just dont think u r giving enough credence to the fact u r utg with ur raise. wud u raise AJ in this spot? I wud say they r similar strenght hands

[Zidane18]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

[Sprayed]

wud u raise AJ in this spot? I wud say they r similar strenght hands

yes

[chardrian]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

But that's the thing, you do have a reason to get involved. Blinds and antes add up to 4k in this hand. That's over 10% of 6 out of the 9 players remaining and is close to 10% of the stack of everyone else remaining.

Also remember that other players at this point should be thinking like Zidane and your utg raise is that more valuable (you get guys like zidane to dump hands like TT and AJ).

Although I won't say a fold is horrible there, I am raising in this situation everytime.

[Zidane18]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

But that's the thing, you do have a reason to get involved. Blinds and antes add up to 4k in this hand. That's over 10% of 6 out of the 9 players remaining and is close to 10% of the stack of everyone else remaining.

Also remember that other players at this point should be thinking like Zidane and your utg raise is that more valuable (you get guys like zidane to dump hands like TT and AJ).

Although I won't say a fold is horrible there, I am raising in this situation everytime.

true but not if the raise is gonna pot commit you to a tough spot or a race when u lose a ton of chips.

Imagine this, u get called in MP by another big stacker. get a flop of all unders. can u fold when he has jacks? or what if the flop comes 10 8 2, he can out play u with position and u lose a ton of chips. Or u get reraised by a short stack (as in this example) and u feel pot commited to a pot u r way behind in.

there r alot of reasons to fold

[Sprayed]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

But that's the thing, you do have a reason to get involved. Blinds and antes add up to 4k in this hand. That's over 10% of 6 out of the 9 players remaining and is close to 10% of the stack of everyone else remaining.

Also remember that other players at this point should be thinking like Zidane and your utg raise is that more valuable (you get guys like zidane to dump hands like TT and AJ).

Although I won't say a fold is horrible there, I am raising in this situation everytime.

true but not if the raise is gonna pot commit you to a tough spot or a race when u lose a ton of chips.

Imagine this, u get called in MP by another big stacker. get a flop of all unders. can u fold when he has jacks? or what if the flop comes 10 8 2, he can out play u with position and u lose a ton of chips. Or u get reraised by a short stack (as in this example) and u feel pot commited to a pot u r way behind in.

there r alot of reasons to fold

Did you read and understand this:

Well, that's just it. You have to take all risks with positive expectation. Playing for survival doesn't work with top heavy payout structures.

So if you can get a flip with 41% equity and 40% pot odds, be happy to get all your chips in.

Sure. I'll take any risk as long as equity > pot odds.

You are playing to win and the only way you do this is by accumulating chips. As chard has said countless times, if you get your chips in 2-1 and you have better than a 33% chance to win, you go for it. If it's 3-1 (25%) you are ok to call almost with any hand. You get these numbers by putting opponents on hands based off of their actions which is determined by several variables.

In my hand, I wouldn't be necessarily crushed if I lost and I felt if I did I could come back and I almost did by finishing 5th. What is being said is that if you sit back and just play monsters, then at these levels you will blind away not be threat to the table. Aggression is king.

[Zidane18]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

But that's the thing, you do have a reason to get involved. Blinds and antes add up to 4k in this hand. That's over 10% of 6 out of the 9 players remaining and is close to 10% of the stack of everyone else remaining.

Also remember that other players at this point should be thinking like Zidane and your utg raise is that more valuable (you get guys like zidane to dump hands like TT and AJ).

Although I won't say a fold is horrible there, I am raising in this situation everytime.

true but not if the raise is gonna pot commit you to a tough spot or a race when u lose a ton of chips.

Imagine this, u get called in MP by another big stacker. get a flop of all unders. can u fold when he has jacks? or what if the flop comes 10 8 2, he can out play u with position and u lose a ton of chips. Or u get reraised by a short stack (as in this example) and u feel pot commited to a pot u r way behind in.

there r alot of reasons to fold

Did you read and understand this:

Well, that's just it. You have to take all risks with positive expectation. Playing for survival doesn't work with top heavy payout structures.

So if you can get a flip with 41% equity and 40% pot odds, be happy to get all your chips in.

Sure. I'll take any risk as long as equity > pot odds.

You are playing to win and the only way you do this is by accumulating chips. As chard has said countless times, if you get your chips in 2-1 and you have better than a 33% chance to win, you go for it. If it's 3-1 (25%) you are ok to call almost with any hand. You get these numbers by putting opponents on hands based off of their actions which is determined by several variables.

In my hand, I wouldn't be necessarily crushed if I lost and I felt if I did I could come back and I almost did by finishing 5th. What is being said is that if you sit back and just play monsters, then at these levels you will blind away not be threat to the table. Aggression is king.

Agression and position. In my opinion u disregarded the latter.

[Zidane18]

and 9 handed on the FT when u have a decent stack and no reason to get involved is not the time to mak marginal raises OOP. Its a style thing guess, but i only raise with JJ+, ak and AQs here

But that's the thing, you do have a reason to get involved. Blinds and antes add up to 4k in this hand. That's over 10% of 6 out of the 9 players remaining and is close to 10% of the stack of everyone else remaining.

Also remember that other players at this point should be thinking like Zidane and your utg raise is that more valuable (you get guys like zidane to dump hands like TT and AJ).

Although I won't say a fold is horrible there, I am raising in this situation everytime.

there will be plenty of oppurtunties to steal the blinds with any two from the cut off or button for alot less risk.

[chardrian]

The raise is only going to pot commit you to players who are in push/fold mode. 99 stands up just fine against push/fold hands.

A beginner mistake is to overvalue all pairs. But 99 is not all pairs, it is a very good starting hand. So I would agree with your assessment that you should fold hands like 22-66 (without any other reads). 77-99 are tricky, I agree, but 99 is a good hand.

I guess I feel that you are advocating that players should dump +EV hands late to ensure that they climb up the pay ladder. I think that style will ensure that you get 5th place more often than you might get 8th, but it also hinders you substantially from winning (or at least getting to the top 3).

[Zidane18]

wud u raise AJ in this spot? I wud say they r similar strenght hands

yes

I am not suggesting raising here with 99 is a huge mistake - of course it isnt. but i think it is the wrong move (marginally). Occasionally i will also make this raise, but not when i am playing my 'A' gasme

Raising AJ here wud be awful tho, and i wud call it a big mistake. again, maybe you all disagree!

[chardrian]

I like AJ less than 99, but as long as you have the right conditions for the raise, I don't mind an AJ raise here either.

[Zidane18]

I like AJ less than 99, but as long as you have the right conditions for the raise, I don't mind an AJ raise here either.

guess it all comes bak 2 how much u tighten up utg and when a FT is 9 handed. The situation of this hand (being UTG and full ring at the FT) makes me play only very very top hands

[johnny_fish]

I agree with Chard; I'd raise AQ/99 always here, AJ/88/77 is tricky. I raise all pairs with deeper stacks.

Zidane: Your arguments are valid but don't weigh up against the arguments for raising.