In bb hit 1 pair+FD on turn

[Sprayed]

I have no reads here because I don’t remember how everyone was playing last night. From what I recall everyone seemed standard. The limp UTG didn’t seem too threatening but he had an M of 6 and shouldn’t be limping here with a marginal hand. However I don’t have any reads to base this on.

The interesting thing was sb making a 1k bet on the turn. What the hell is that? A set or 2 pair? Obviously, he doesn’t want anyone to call. I have second pair on the flop and then hit a flush draw on the turn with my pair. If I add all pairs and all broadway I get these numbers:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.969% 55.97% 00.00% 4679 0.00 { Ac4c }
Hand 1: 44.031% 44.03% 00.00% 3681 0.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Is this too broad? Do I need to factor in the other two? If I do it drops my equity down to 30%. If it’s just a set or two pair I’m not getting the equity to get my chips in.

There’s 1000 in the pot on the turn. Sb bets 1k making it 2000. I need to call 1000 to win 2000 which is 2-1. If I push over his raise he needs to call 3480 to win 5288 which is close to 2-1. His 1k bet tells me that he’s probably calling if I push unless he smells weakness and is just betting the pot to take it down. Is this the time that I take the edge and push?

PokerStars Game #8120450029: Tournament #41437434, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/01/25 - 19:53:29 (ET)
Table '41437434 7' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: T2B3 (6030 in chips)
Seat 3: vuzim34 (2745 in chips)
Seat 4: GoPigGo (3505 in chips)
Seat 5: TESS AA (6290 in chips)
Seat 6: Sprayed (3713 in chips)
Seat 7: stanibass (3176 in chips)
Seat 8: markko153 (17444 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: OneHornBulll (8015 in chips)
T2B3: posts the ante 25
vuzim34: posts the ante 25
GoPigGo: posts the ante 25
TESS AA: posts the ante 25
Sprayed: posts the ante 25
stanibass: posts the ante 25
markko153: posts the ante 25
OneHornBulll: posts the ante 25
TESS AA: posts small blind 100
Sprayed: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [Ac 4c]
stanibass: calls 200
markko153: folds
OneHornBulll: folds
T2B3: calls 200
vuzim34: folds
GoPigGo: folds
TESS AA: calls 100
Sprayed: checks
*** FLOP *** [4h Tc 2h]
TESS AA: checks
markko153 has returned
Sprayed: checks
stanibass: checks
T2B3: checks
*** TURN *** [4h Tc 2h] [9c]
TESS AA: bets 1000
Sprayed: ?

[Slash]

I would push this.... It looks like a weak ass steal too me. I love pickin people off when they do stupid shit!!!! Also the PO are way too good, if you get a call ahh well you have 17 outs. If he folds its a nice pick-up.

[jimmy44]

I would fold this!

Why:
- If he has top pair (which is what I put him on 70-80% of the time, unless he had done this bets lately), you'll have an equity of around 34%;
- You'll still have an M of around 11.5 if you fold, which is still plenty of chips (I would make this play if I had an M of around 6 or lower);
- It's too early in the tourney (i.e. level 7). In the money I might do this play with the M.

[Slash]

I would fold this!

Why:
- If he has top pair (which is what I put him on 70-80% of the time, unless he had done this bets lately), you'll have an equity of around 34%;
- You'll still have an M of around 11.5 if you fold, which is still plenty of chips (I would make this play if I had an M of around 6 or lower);
- It's too early in the tourney (i.e. level 7). In the money I might do this play with the M.

I see this play all the time at low buyin tourneys. Plus with the blinds raising too 200-400 within 15 minuts that will drop his M too about 5 if he folds.