How's this Arb on the superbowl?

[Harry]

Indianapolis -7.0/Ov 48.5 (to win) +300 $20.00
Indianapolis -7.0/Un 48.5 (to win) +260 $22.22
Chicago +7.0 vs Indianapolis -109 $63.64


Did I do this correctly? Is this +EV?

[ensign_lee]

ok. possible scenarios:

Indy wins by 7: all bets tie
Indy wins by more than 7, game goes over: +60, -22.22, -63.64 = loss
Indy wins by more than 7, game goes under: -20, +57.77, -63.64 = loss
Indy fails to cover: -20, -22.22, +59.39 = gain

So you only make money if Chicago covers.

[elipsesjeff]

Are my calculations right?

If Bears cover, he wins $16, if Indy covers he loses like $25. So, this is like saying he is getting Bears +7 for -150?

Otherwise, that bet blows.

[Harry]

Wow I really f*cked that up. I was thinking the two parlays would average into one bet for colts -7 at good odds, and then I'd hedge that with the bears +7. I must have screwed up the math or something....

I have $22 left in my balance at Matchbook... anyway I can hedge some of this out to make it less -EV?

Edit: I just threw my last 22 on Bears ML.... gambooooooool!