Bad luck at Playtech. Gone bust at Golden Palace and Bet 365

[pokerroomace]

I cashed in $100 at Golden Palace. Got my 300% bonus. Had $400 to play with. Wagered $2310 and went bust at $10 a bet. Playing Blackjack and following the chart provided by casinobonuspages.com.

That was yesterday. Today I cashed in $200 to Golden Palace. Got my 100% bonus. Wagered $1580 and went bust at $8 a bet. Again I was following the chart the whole time provided by casinobonuspages. I went bust from $400 in about half an hour.

Is this unusual? I have only whored 4 casinos now. At Starluck and Intercasino I made profits - but at Playtech the house always has a better hand than me. It's like they have a 40% edge on me. Not even Phil Ivey could take money off me that quick at poker.

Is this just variance?

[jyms]

I will tell you before anybody else, since I usually respond with a gentle tone. Did you not read up on the playing style. At $10 or $8 a bet Busto is gaurenteed. You need to bet $1 at a time, to keep variance from kicking you in the head.

So yes It's variance, it's lucky you made it thru the others.

[AHiltz]

Are you aware that GP is a sticky and can't be cashed out? Are you aware of the change in stategy for these? If not, reply and I'll shed some light, otherwise I'll save some keystrokes.

[jyms]

yea, most casino bonuses aren't what they used to be. You need to do some extensive homework on T&C's. I've all but given up on most. Becasue of the play styles needed for stickys, and the 100% wagers. The $1 manual betting with $4800 WR+++ and autoplay sites in the $22000WR. I can make alot more these days whoring poker sites, than sitting at some BJ table with 3 handed $1 bets for 16+ hours.

[swiggidy]

Your approach makes my stomach queasy.

[jyms]

Your approach makes my stomach queasy.

Who, What?

[seoul_child1]

I will tell you before anybody else, since I usually respond with a gentle tone. What are you stupid? It's variance kicking you in the head.

Hahahaha... this made me laugh during lunch break...

[pokerroomace]

does anyone here know what they are talking about?
at the other casinos i was making smaller bets. also, the bigger the bets the more positive ev it is since you bust quicker. it saves you time and money. casino online is cashable:
"The total amount deposited (deposit + bonus) MUST be wagered TWENTY (20) times BEFORE making any cash-in. (For example, if you play two hands of Poker and wager 5 credits on each, this represents a total of 10 credits wagered. If you win one of these hands and lose the other, your credit balance will remain the same; the amount wagered (10 credits) counts toward fulfilling your promotional obligation)."

i don't think any of you guys have any idea what you are talking about. and i understand that it could be variance but i wanted to see if anyone else busted so quickly.

i don't mind variance kicking me in the head if it can also kick them in the head retard.

thanks for all your worthless replies

[jyms]

do I know what they are talking about?

FYP

at the other casinos i was making smaller bets. also, the bigger the bets the more positive ev it is since you bust quicker. it saves you time NOT money.

?????

"The total amount deposited (deposit + bonus) MUST be wagered TWENTY (20) times BEFORE making any cash-in. (For example, if you play two hands of Poker and wager 5 credits on each, this represents a total of 10 credits wagered. If you win one of these hands and lose the other, your credit balance will remain the same; the amount wagered (10 credits) counts toward fulfilling your promotional obligation)."

This is understood, you need to wager, $400 x 20 = $8000. For you to not bust betting $10 at a time is near impossible, do you have any Idea why.

thanks for all your worthless replies

I think you're being sarcastic, i don't think you mean thank you.

[nomofoshobro]

if time = money and you are minus $300 dollars for your time, how do you justify that?

i will let someone else explain variance to you.

[jyms]

Maybe I was wrong, where did you get told, or read, how to do this with casinos. What info were you relying on to bonuswhore these sites. Maybe you don't know any better, maybe I don't. point me to your information you used to do this.

[swiggidy]

1) my first post was directed @ OP
2) OP still ignored AHiltz post which was helpful and extremely important
3) OP obv does not understand variance
4) OP don't be an ass

Yes, you are correct that each hand has a higher eV when you are making a larger bet. This should be intuitive because you are playing less hands to win the same amount of bonus money. But following this logic doesn't it make sense that you should bet all the money on the first hand, and if you win bet it all on the second hand? Then your bonus eV for each hand is +$10 or something. $10 >>>> 10c

Why don't you do this? Variance. The standard deviation (square root of variance) tells us the range of monies won/lost. So if you expect to loose $200 10% of the time with $1 bets, then you can expect to loose approx $200 * sqrt(10) = $632 10% of the time with $10 bets.

If you have to wager $4800, their is a 1% chance you loose $200, and a 23% chance you will loose your $100 bonus with $1 wagers. If you wager $10 per hand there is a 41% chance you loose your $100 bonus, but now there is a 25% chance you loose $200, and a 6% chance you loose $400 (if you played until you cleared).

I've been planning a BJ BR post. Obv the $4800 is barely +eV. The 50% point is -$48 so clearing the bonus gives an eV of +$52. In the good old days of 1000 WR this was a +$80 eV situation. {not as big of a difference with the right numbers}

(there is an offset in here because the edge in blackjack is -.5%, so my numbers are slightly different than if you' assumed a 50/50 game)

{edit: Fixed some numbers, compare them to the quote below to see the difference between 49% house edge and 49.5% house edge}

[Scrimmage]

OP:

Yes this is normal with higher variance (read: bigger) bets. You are speeding up your WR coverage and increasing the chance you will bust.

Jyms:

By increasing your bet size you can theoretically increase your hourly rate. I think this is what OP is getting at. Of course you are drastically increasing your variance, so your mileage may vary. I agree with you in that other than a few sites I'd rather work on my poker via poker bonus whoring. There are still a fair number of profitable casino bonuses out there if you read the T&Cs carefully though.

[pokerroomace]

1) my first post was directed @ OP
2) OP still ignored AHiltz post which was helpful and extremely important
3) OP obv does not understand variance
4) OP don't be an ass

Yes, you are correct that each hand has a higher eV when you are making a larger bet. This should be intuitive because you are playing less hands to win the same amount of bonus money. But following this logic doesn't it make sense that you should bet all the money on the first hand, and if you win bet it all on the second hand? Then your bonus eV for each hand is +$10 or something. $10 >>>> 10c

Why don't you do this? Variance. The standard deviation (square root of variance) tells us the range of monies won/lost. So if you expect to loose $200 10% of the time with $1 bets, then you can expect to loose approx $200 * sqrt(10) = $632 10% of the time with $10 bets.

If you have to wager $4800, their is a 7% chance you loose $200, and a 48% chance you will loose your $100 bonus. If you wager $10 per hand there is a 49% chance you loose your $100 bonus, but now there is a 32% chance you loose $200, and a 10% chance you loose $400 (if you played until you cleared).

I've been planning a BJ BR post. Obv the $4800 is barely +eV. The 50% point is -$96 so clearing the bonus gives an eV of plus $4. In the good old days of 1000 WR this was a +$80eV situation.

{there is an offset in here because the edge in blackjack is -.5%, so my numbers are slightly different than if you' assumed a 50/50 game}

ok. what are the chances that i bust with $10 bets with a $400br and an $8k WR?
what are the chances i bust with $5 bets?

i read ahitz post and i then posted a quote from golden palace. the quote stated that the bonus was cashable? no?
(either way i've lost it now so it doesn't make a difference to me now.)

by making $10 bets the chances that i would win more money increased as much as the chances that i would lose more. correct?

[jyms]

hiltsz said GP, Golden Palace. You quoted Casino Online?? iIs that the same thing. Is that the actual casino's T&C?

[swiggidy]

Here's a sample graph (it's a big pic)

http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/991...ibutionxg5.png

{haha, that was quick TJ}
data lines are the amount of one bet

x-axis -> amount of money won or lost.

This does not include any bonus money. If you notice they intersect at -$48 dollars. This is because with a .495% chance of winning you have a 99% return (or 1% loss). So it doesn't matter how much each bet is as long as the total amount wagered is constant (as is typical in bonus clearing). It's also the 50% point (i.e. 1/2 the time you'll do better, 1/2 the time you'll do worse).

So, pick a point on the x-axis (say -100), follow it up to your desired bet amount (say green for a $2 bet). Find the "y-value" of that point (~.37 in my example).

So for my example we have a .37 => 37% chance of loosing $100 or more.

ok. what are the chances that i bust with $10 bets with a $400br and an $8k WR? what are the chances i bust with $5 bets?

7% and 13% respectively. The expected value of wagering $8000 at blackjack with a .495% edge is -$80

[jyms]

You may need to explain that graph swig.

[zook]

swiggidy rulez

[pokerroomace]

Here's a sample graph (it's a big pic)

http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/991...ibutionxg5.png

{haha, that was quick TJ}
data lines are the amount of one bet

x-axis -> amount of money won or lost.

This does not include any bonus money. If you notice they intersect at -$48 dollars. This is because with a .495% chance of winning you have a 99% return (or 1% loss). So it doesn't matter how much each bet is as long as the total amount wagered is constant (as is typical in bonus clearing). It's also the 50% point (i.e. 1/2 the time you'll do better, 1/2 the time you'll do worse).

So, pick a point on the x-axis (say -100), follow it up to your desired bet amount (say green for a $2 bet). Find the "y-value" of that point (~.37 in my example).

So for my example we have a .37 => 37% chance of loosing $100 or more.

ok. what are the chances that i bust with $10 bets with a $400br and an $8k WR? what are the chances i bust with $5 bets?

7% and 13% respectively. The expected value of wagering $8000 at blackjack with a .495% edge is -$80

i don't really understand the graph either. are you saying that i had a 13% chance of busting playing $10 bets? that means the chances of busting with $8 bets is about 11% and the chances of busting at both is like 1%. if that's the case then i just got really unlucky.
i don't think this is what you mean though. what are you saying?

btw, i didn't quote casino online. i quoted golden palace. and yes - it is the same as online casino. GP and OC are basically identical. just different colurs and different names. you can only sign up to 1 though.

by making $10 bets was i -$EV? in the long run would i have made a profit (ie. i sign up to GP 1 million times playing the same strategy. profit/loss?)

Your approach makes my stomach queasy

How is this? Where did I go wrong? It's still +EV right? I just got unlucky.

if time = money and you are minus $300 dollars for your time, how do you justify that?

i will let someone else explain variance to you.

again, i don't understand. do you guys know something i don't?

[swiggidy]

The graph is for $4.8K, you asked about $8k and a $400 roll. I don't know what the eV is because I don't know what the (clearable) bonus is. Add the bonus to -$80 and that's expected value.

Call me skeptical, but there is <1% chance you loose $400 placing 231x$10 bets. There is 35% you loose the initial $100. There is a 0.1% chance you loose $400 wagering $1300 @ $8 a pop, but a 22% chance you loose $100.

No you are not -eV by betting $10. In the long run with an infinite bankroll and unlimited bonuses the best thing to do would be bet the max possible on every hand. The reason I don't like your plan is because you didn't seem to understand the ramifications of variance. There are a limited number of bonuses and variance could very well make you go busto before you see this +eV. This idea is the same as taking chances in an MTT, bankroll management, etc.

The opposite of this is also true. There is a 20% chance that you deposit, play 800x$10 hands and finish over $150 in profit.

I'll eventually make a more encompassing thread, for now either bet $1, maybe $2 a hand, or be comfortable going busto

[I Like Pie]

Here is a link to a BJ return calculator: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

Playtech casino seems to be pretty streaky to me. I ran well at Golden Palace for a $550 profit but at New York casino I got raped and lost it all very quicky, things didn't go well for me at BetFred Casino either.

Large bets are much better if your bankroll can handle it. Your hourly rate will be high and it's more +EV, you just have to deal with larger swings.

[Halv]

You need to bet $1 at a time, to keep variance from kicking you in the head.

i don't mind variance kicking me in the head if it can also kick them in the head baby

TJ got pwned (and also edited for rudeness ) .

The trouble with the "bet all on every hand" approach is that you will likely not have either a head or a foot left when it's your turn to kick back at them, because bankrolls aren't infinite. Be prepared to bust 3 out of 4 casinos and you should be fine betting 15$-ish a pop. Prepared as in "have the bankroll to bust, say, 10-15 casinos without a big score".

How's that BR guide coming along swig? I guess I wasn't too helpful after all.. Maths .

[pokerroomace]

The graph is for $4.8K, you asked about $8k and a $400 roll. I don't know what the eV is because I don't know what the (clearable) bonus is. Add the bonus to -$80 and that's expected value.

Call me skeptical, but there is <1% chance you loose $400 placing 231x$10 bets. There is 35% you loose the initial $100. There is a 0.1% chance you loose $400 wagering $1300 @ $8 a pop, but a 22% chance you loose $100.

No you are not -eV by betting $10. In the long run with an infinite bankroll and unlimited bonuses the best thing to do would be bet the max possible on every hand. The reason I don't like your plan is because you didn't seem to understand the ramifications of variance. There are a limited number of bonuses and variance could very well make you go busto before you see this +eV. This idea is the same as taking chances in an MTT, bankroll management, etc.

The opposite of this is also true. There is a 20% chance that you deposit, play 800x$10 hands and finish over $150 in profit.

I'll eventually make a more encompassing thread, for now either bet $1, maybe $2 a hand, or be comfortable going busto

i am comfortable going bust. as long as it's good in the long run.

i had less than 1% chance of going bust? does this mean the casino screwed me over or i got very unlucky?

[Miffed22001]

this thread is dumb
No wonder you went bust betting $10 per shot.

Its called variance, i didnt bother reading teh rest of the thread.

[jyms]

You need to bet $1 at a time, to keep variance from kicking you in the head.

i don't mind variance kicking me in the head if it can also kick them in the head baby

TJ got pwned (and also edited for rudeness ) .

I don't know about that. I'm pretty sure when it comes to trading kicks in the head, house wins. They have the Infinite bankroll everyone is talking about, in relation to any of ours. Absolutely he can come out on top, but at what cost? And how long can you wait for your "kick" If the house "kicks" 4 times, 5 times, can you still "kick" back.

[pokerroomace]

i understand it is variance!

Here is a link to a BJ return calculator: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

Playtech casino seems to be pretty streaky to me. I ran well at Golden Palace for a $550 profit but at New York casino I got raped and lost it all very quicky, things didn't go well for me at BetFred Casino either.

Large bets are much better if your bankroll can handle it. Your hourly rate will be high and it's more +EV, you just have to deal with larger swings.

thank you for the one of the only decent replies. thanks to swiggidy too and 1 or 2 others.
i'm leaving this topic now. the bonus calculator answered all my questions

[swiggidy]

Call me skeptical, but there is <1% chance you loose $400 placing 231x$10 bets. There is 35% you loose the initial $100. There is a 0.1% chance you loose $400 wagering $1300 @ $8 a pop, but a 22% chance you loose $100.

i had less than 1% chance of going bust? does this mean the casino screwed me over or i got very unlucky?

You had less than
.01 * .001 = 0.00001 => 0.001 % or
1:100,000
change of loosing $400, twice, via the methods listed above. So I think there's something else.

Playing more than one hand at a time increases variance. Using any system above straight bets increases variance.

If you just want to hear it... "OMG you are extremely unlucky, keep doing exactly what you have been and you will be fine (as long as you have the bankroll)"

I agree with Miffed, this thread is dumb

[pokerroomace]

Call me skeptical, but there is <1% chance you loose $400 placing 231x$10 bets. There is 35% you loose the initial $100. There is a 0.1% chance you loose $400 wagering $1300 @ $8 a pop, but a 22% chance you loose $100.

i had less than 1% chance of going bust? does this mean the casino screwed me over or i got very unlucky?

You had less than
.01 * .001 = 0.00001 => 0.001 % or
1:100,000
change of loosing $400, twice, via the methods listed above. So I think there's something else.

Playing more than one hand at a time increases variance. Using any system above straight bets increases variance.

If you just want to hear it... "OMG you are extremely unlucky, keep doing exactly what you have been and you will be fine (as long as you have the bankroll)"

I agree with Miffed, this thread is dumb

swiggidy - i don't understand what you're saying. the chances that i'd bust at both casinos before i could cash out was not 1 in 100,000. and if it is - then yes! i did very unlucky. so unlucky that i wouldn't call it luck. but i would say that the casinos cheated.

[bigspenda73]

go play 400NL

[Halv]

go play 400NL

WTF?

Swig, is the <0.1% number accurate or are you levelling? It just seems that the number of "busted flatbetting 5$"-posts on various forums is too high for this to be true. Then again there's probably some sample bias (ie folks only post when they bust) involved.

[pokerroomace]

go play 400NL

haha. you read my post in high stakes forum? i stopped playing it now. back to 50nl

[swiggidy]

Swig, is the <0.1% number accurate or are you levelling? It just seems that the number of "busted flatbetting 5$"-posts on various forums is too high for this to be true. Then again there's probably some sample bias (ie folks only post when they bust) involved.

It's accurate (unless my maths are wrong, but I spent a lot of time going over the formulas I set up, which is now plug in numbers get answer). <0.1 % is the chance of loosing $400 after wagering $1500 with $8 bets. Hero looses by wagering ~450 times, so he has to loose 2 of 3, 150 times in a row.

I'm not saying you never loose $400 with a $8 bet, that is in the 20% range, I'm saying you would almost never go busto with a $8 bet after 500 hands.

I think OP is leaving something out. Either it's not .5% HA, or he's playing multiple hands at a time, or he didn't loose $400 (like only the $100), or something else is skewed (I'm not trying to attack OP, I'm just very skeptical).

Lets use the calculator. Wager 1500 - Bet Size 8
1 hand at a time: 2std => -$243 as lower
3 hand at a time: 2std => -$326 as lower

There is a 2.5% chance you finish below 2std. 1 hand at a time getting -$400 is almost impossible, 3 handed it's unlikely, but possible.

[pokerroomace]

Swig, is the <0.1% number accurate or are you levelling? It just seems that the number of "busted flatbetting 5$"-posts on various forums is too high for this to be true. Then again there's probably some sample bias (ie folks only post when they bust) involved.

It's accurate (unless my maths are wrong, but I spent a lot of time going over the formulas I set up, which is now plug in numbers get answer). <0.1 % is the chance of loosing $400 after wagering $1500 with $8 bets. Hero looses by wagering ~450 times, so he has to loose 2 of 3, 150 times in a row.

I'm not saying you never loose $400 with a $8 bet, that is in the 20% range, I'm saying you would almost never go busto with a $8 bet after 500 hands.

I think OP is leaving something out. Either it's not .5% HA, or he's playing multiple hands at a time, or he didn't loose $400 (like only the $100), or something else is skewed (I'm not trying to attack OP, I'm just very skeptical).

Lets use the calculator. Wager 1500 - Bet Size 8
1 hand at a time: 2std => -$243 as lower
3 hand at a time: 2std => -$326 as lower

There is a 2.5% chance you finish below 2std. 1 hand at a time getting -$400 is almost impossible, 3 handed it's unlikely, but possible.

At Bet 365. I was playing Blackjack. Single-handed. I was playing $8 a bet and went bust after wagering only $1580. I followed the chart the whole time. (I might have deviated from the chart once or twice while I was playing, but even these mistakes probably only lost me $2 or less)

I think that the casino has approx. 0.5% edge at Blackjack at Bet 365. I'm not 100% sure about this figure though.

What I want to know is this:
What are the chances I bust before I have wagered $4800 when I have $400 to play with and I'm making $8 bets (when the casino has a 0.5% edge)?
And what are the chances I bust before I have wagered $8000 when I have $400 to play with and I'm making $10 bets (when the casino has a 0.5% edge)?
Playing perfect strategy the whole time in both cases.

Your numbers don't make any sense at all swiggidy. If there is less than a 1% chance I bust before I can cash out while making $8 bets - then variance will almost never kill me. You're numbers are wrong or you're not answering MY question. I expect the chance of me busting to be something like 50%. Then it would make sense that variance has hurt me.

Why should I make $2 bets when I have less than 1% chance of busting while making $8 bets? You're contradicting yourself!