super four bet squezze

[IowaSkinsFan]

people behind are tight taggs, reraiser is unknown.
PokerStars Game #8455705391: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/02/15 - 15:41:32 (ET)
Table 'Dione V' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: DropkickMK ($90.15 in chips)
Seat 2: ahmngrn30 ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 3: I pRaXiS I ($120.75 in chips)
Seat 4: xosamsamox ($44.75 in chips)
Seat 5: redgrape ($167.95 in chips)
Seat 6: MadSkillz609 ($94.95 in chips)
ahmngrn30: posts small blind $0.50
I pRaXiS I: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [As 5s]
xosamsamox: folds
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
MadSkillz609: calls $4
DropkickMK: calls $4
ahmngrn30: raises $15 to $19
I pRaXiS I: folds
redgrape: raises $148.95 to $167.95 and is all-in

[bode]

good vs the right villains occasionally. i'd like a better A (ie AT+) to do this, but whatever. i would be leary in this spot since reraiser is unknown.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I just thought most people aren't raising this much with AA.

[Renton]

um its not even pot.

I fold 100% of the time here, this isn't 5/10.

[IowaSkinsFan]

um its not even pot.

I fold 100% of the time here, this isn't 5/10.

I don't have to win this that much, do the math.

pokerstove would prob say 25% against a call.
I need him to fold like 20% of the time.

[Renton]

ok the reason i fold 100% of the time is as follows:

We don't know his reraise range. We can make an assumption about it but that assumption would be wrong a massive percentage of the time. Likely its AK QQ+. It could be AQ+ JJ+. It could be KK+.

Obviously if his range is KK+, we're making a very poor play since he always calls and we're always dominated.

But what if his range is AK QQ+? He still pretty much always calls. He might fold very seldomly, but probably not enough to make our play profitable.

So basically, we're banking on an unknown player having a wide (enough) reraise range to fold it X percent of the time.

And X isn't 20. X is much greater than 20 because of our uncertainty that he even is reraising a wide enough range to begin with.

ONTOPPPPATHAT: The players in the middle MIGHT have been getting cute with a hand. You seem to be completely disregarding this possibility but it certainly does adversely affect the equity of this play.

Too uncertain, i fold.

[Galapogos]

I never make this play against an unknown.

[benny999]

don't like it much with no read on the reraiser, but if he can squeeze with a wide enough range then it looks good.

I actually did rough math out of curiosoity...with help from CTS's blog on this at http://www.cardrunners.com/fusetalk/...h=10&year=2006

he calls: you either win 112$ from him and the callers, or lose 96 from effective stack minus your pfr. so...
30% x 112 = 34
-70% x 96 = -67
total: -33bb expectation when called

folds: you take the ~30$ pot
30bb expectaion when he folds

so you actually need him to fold about 50% of the time for 0ev.

[Jager]

I tried this about a dozen times recently. I won 3 hands when I spiked an A v KK, KK, QQ. I got ZERO folds. At small stakes this play is highly unprofitable.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

um its not even pot.

[andy-akb]

I tried this about a dozen times recently. I won 3 hands when I spiked an A v KK, KK, QQ. I got ZERO folds. At small stakes this play is highly unprofitable.

I really disagree with this. When I was playing at FT a lot and running into very aggressive regulars I was making a play similar to this [I open, maybe a call in between, and then a 3bet, i then shove] somewhat consistently and was having very good results with it. Could be short term luck, but it wasnt just for a day or two.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I tried this about a dozen times recently. I won 3 hands when I spiked an A v KK, KK, QQ. I got ZERO folds. At small stakes this play is highly unprofitable.

You may have been running into bad luck. But yeah normally i don't do it unless I'm pretty sure opp has big range of raise and small range of calling.

[rebuyman]

lol ur terrible at poker

[bigspenda73]

lol ur terrible at poker

god i hope there is an inside joke I'm unaware of...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'm pretty sure there is no inside joke.