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For some reason i cannot log onto Full Tilt at the moment. So, i went here of course to do some studying and i saw this post. I want to do some EV calculations on this hand for practice and to verify whether the consensus of folding is correct.
Here are my assumptions about villains range (assuming he is probably frustrated from Zook's aggression). I think it is actually quite probable that villain is bluffing, since he laid zook good odds to call to see a flop, and his raise clearly doesn't pot commit him to the hand. Certainly villain could be doing all this on purpose to disguise the fact he has AA, but in order for me to do this i will assume we are NOT being 3rd leveled.
Bluff: 30%
A-A/K-K: 50%
A-K: 20%
If villain is bluffing, he will fold to a 4bet (presumably)
Hero raises to $110, Villain folds. Hero wins $57
Probability: 30%
If villain is holding A-K, he will fold to the 4bet probably only 1/2 the time (since he is so mad at you ) and shove AI the other half.
Hero raises to $110, Villain folds. Hero wins $57
Probability: 10%
Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and wins. Hero wins $204
Probability: 5%
Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and loses. Hero loses $173
Probability: 5%
Certainly there will be times when villain is holding A-A/K-K. He will never fold these preflop.
Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and wins. Hero wins $204
Probability: 10%
Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and loses. Hero loses $173
Probability: 40%
Math time!
(($57) x 0.3) + (($57) x 0.1) + (($204) x 0.05) +((-$173) x 0.05) + (($204) x 0.1) + ((-$173) x 0.4) =
($17.1) + ($5.7) + ($10.2) + ($-8.65) + ($20.4) + (-$69.2) = -$24.45
So, it is -EV. It would become even more EV if we gave villain a normal bluffing percentage, like 10% or less. So yeah to further validate aforementioned advice this is a fold, and it ain't even close.
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