Is folding TT+ preflop for 100bbs wrong in aggressive games?

[aislephive]

Consider a standard spot in an aggressive game, CO with a > 15 PFR opens for 4bbs, we repop from the button or blinds 3.5x his raise. Our image is aggressive and he knows our 3 betting range is very wide. He comes back over the top and 4bets to 40bbs.

First, we need to figure out his 4 betting range, obviously. This is all very player dependant, but a pretty standard range is AA/KK/AKo/AKs, and bluffs. Excluding bluffs, this is how TT fares against that range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

287,667,072 games 0.005 secs 57,533,414,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.734% 59.54% 00.20% 171267108 566874.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.266% 40.07% 00.20% 115266216 566874.00 { TT }

Now admittedly, this is a pretty tight 4 betting range. We'd need about 43-44% equity for a push to be correct IIRC. So against this range you would think we're making a small mistake by getting it in. But you also have to factor in complete bluffs, and also the fact that people generally 4 bet AK much more than they do with AA/KK. A lot of people like to play AA/KK coy and set a trap, where as people 4 bet AK nearly 100% of the time these days. With all of that said this would almost certainly swing our equity to over 43%.

Now, as I said, this is a pretty tight 4 betting range. In extremely aggro games, a range like the one below is more accurate.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

575,334,144 games 0.005 secs 115,066,828,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.891% 59.69% 00.20% 343427268 1147962.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.109% 39.91% 00.20% 229610952 1147962.00 { TT }

Like before, throw in some complete bluffs and the fact that people are 4 betting stuff like AK much more than AA/KK in general, and TT becomes a push.

I'm not really that great with pokerstove to be honest, nor am I great with calculating equities, so if I made any mistakes please let me know. But this looks about right to me.

Thoughts?

[sauce123]

This is so much more player dependent than TT dependent imo. If you have a PP against a light 4bettor just figure out if its AK AQ Axs like everytime which it is for some players and get it in on a super sick valueshove.

[mcatdog]

Yeah the problem with this analysis is that JJ=22 assuming they're folding their complete bluffs if you shove.

[aislephive]

Yeah the problem with this analysis is that JJ=22 assuming they're folding their complete bluffs if you shove.

A complete bluff like 45s perhaps, but any reasonable hand is calling a shove after 4 betting 40% of their stack.

[JL]

So you have more equity with TT vs KK+ AKo/AKs than you do with TT vs AQo+, JJ+ ???
That is very strange to me.
Can someone explain to me why that is??

[mcatdog]

Why is it strange JL? Those ranges both have the exact same proportion of overcards vs. overpairs but TT is marginally more likely to make a straight if JJ isn't out there. The difference was like 0.1% anyway.

Aislephive good point about the 4-bettor making a crying call with a bluff, and TT having more equity against bluffs than 22 has.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I find this really interesting... however, in my experience, tight players 4-betting range usually excludes AA (100 BB deep) or just includes AA or KK, sometimes AK