Tilt or Variance

[zachaser]

I started off hot doing 1.25/3.30 turbos SNG's at Stars; I've finished out of the money the past 18/19 tournaments. Here is a hand I busted out on:
PokerStars Game #9052495576: Tournament #46017997, $1.50+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/03/23 - 18:50:52 (ET)
Table '46017997 2' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: zachaser (1385 in chips)
Seat 2: anuplander (1395 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: misana (1600 in chips)
Seat 6: pucknut68 (1310 in chips)
Seat 7: stevecherry (4040 in chips)
Seat 8: Fligga SF (3620 in chips)
Seat 9: JohnnnyPoker (3220 in chips)
stevecherry: posts small blind 25
Fligga SF: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zachaser [Ah Qd]
JohnnnyPoker: calls 50
zachaser: raises 150 to 200
anuplander: folds
misana: folds
pucknut68: folds
stevecherry: calls 175
Fligga SF: folds
JohnnnyPoker: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [5s Ad 8h]
stevecherry: checks
JohnnnyPoker: checks
zachaser: bets 350
stevecherry: raises 3490 to 3840 and is all-in
JohnnnyPoker: folds
zachaser: ??? stevecherry has been DONK/MANIAC. Only has chips from bad=beating other people.
Besides this example, I seem to be losing most of my money where donks will not fold to my preflop raises when I have a hand, and when I cb them after hitting the flop, I lose all my chips because they hit the flop harder with an inferior hand. Suggestions? Comments?

[taipan168]

Given your read, I am calling the push all day long. You're ahead more often than you're behind.

Sorry to hear about your losing streak. Post some more hands if you'd like to check up whether it's because of bad play or just variance.

[eugmac]

I would have bet more on the flop. Given his image I think I would insta-call.

[Black Sheep]

Shouldnt this be a fold PF? I mean this is still the early stages and shouldnt the tight play be applied here? Incase i would play this hand, i would def raise alot more to get rid of those marginal hands that some players cant lay down.

[Local_Echo]

Shouldnt this be a fold PF?

Not necessarily. I play AQ early on, typically for a raise depending on the situation. I still consider this a good hand because you will beat most of the trash other people play. As always, you should be cautious with it.

As for the OP, I'm calling this in an instant given your read.

[FlyingSaucy]

i vote for variance. i assume you called and got busted

[marmot]

I don't mind playing AQ early. I'm folding to the push though. Even if he is a maniac he could easliy have A5, A8, 55, 88 and then you're funked

[zachaser]

Unfortunately, he did have A8. Do I really fold here though? Guy could have pushed with any Ace, any piece of the flop.

[taipan168]

Unfortunately, he did have A8. Do I really fold here though? Guy could have pushed with any Ace, any piece of the flop.

Right, I am never folding here. Against a very tight player I would consider folding but not against this laggy maniac. You're ahead much more often than you're behind IMO.

[dsmrolla06]

Ya, you cant fold here. And about the comment on folding AQ pf, why? AQ is the second strongest unwired hand. If you folding this what are you playing? Im probly playing this pretty close to how you played it. With one limper im raising to about 200 here and betting the flop about the same amount. You cant fold to the all in bet, especially from this player with ~700 chips left. Your getting almost 3:1 to call the all in, so do you think your ahead more than 25% of the time? I do.

[taipan168]

Ya, you cant fold here. And about the comment on folding AQ pf, why? AQ is the second strongest unwired hand. If you folding this what are you playing?

I'd usually fold AQ to an EP raise but generally I won't open fold it or fold if there is a limper in front. There are plenty of posters on 2p2 that advocate open folding AQo from UTG early in the tourney however.

[dsaxton]

Do I really fold here though? Guy could have pushed with any Ace, any piece of the flop.

If this is the case, then obviously you shouldn't fold to his check-raise.