I'm fucked aren't I? But i can't fold right?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Opp is 25/16/1.5, really has been straight forward. 33% WTSD% over small sample.
PokerStars Game #9224577388: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/04/02 - 23:29:38 (ET)
Table 'Eudora V' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: redgrape ($274.35 in chips)
Seat 2: mayhem920 ($301.10 in chips)
Seat 3: 89blackbas ($44.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Poker_Pat_Sm ($200 in chips)
Seat 5: stiched ($120 in chips)
Seat 6: Red To Blue ($321.70 in chips)
89blackbas: posts small blind $1
Poker_Pat_Sm: posts big blind $2
stiched: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Jd 9d]
stiched: checks
Red To Blue: raises $4 to $6
redgrape: calls $6
mayhem920: folds
89blackbas: folds
Poker_Pat_Sm: folds
stiched: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [5h 9c 8c]
stiched: checks
Red To Blue: bets $12
redgrape: calls $12
stiched: folds
*** TURN *** [5h 9c 8c] [Jh]
Red To Blue: bets $22
redgrape: raises $60 to $82
Red To Blue: raises $221.70 to $303.70 and is all-in
redgrape:

[Reidak]

I think you really have to call this, you still have 4 absolute outs, we will see alot of OP's here, probably alot of 10x's .. your opponent might be mixing it up a bit or he might have just been running cold before and is overcompensating on a draw

[Genitruc]

No you're not fucked.

I think you're trailing to 888 and Q10 and leading oVERPAIIIIIRS WHOOT SHIPIT ALLLLLLIN

[andy-akb]

I dont know how much I really like calling here PF. Stacks arent shallow, but I dont know if they are deep enough for this. Every once in awhile it is fine, but I wouldnt make it standard [not saying you are]. This is a spot where I have no idea what to do and probably end up calling as I say "show me X" [that beats me] and then see it flipped up. How small of a sample is this over? If it is over a significant sample then I would fold this because of hands that bet the turn, the only ones we are beating are top pairs, some sort of combo draw [with a jack] or an over pair and of those, I dont think a passive player will play any this aggressively. If this sample isnt large then I dont think we can put too much weight on it and I dont think a call is that bad but I think its fairly marginal.

If my thinking is way off, let me know.

[IowaSkinsFan]

It's not a big sample, prob around 100.

[Fnord]

This is one of those hands I'd love to ask Ed Miller about.

Mixed feelings on every street.

[Genitruc]

I think it's really important that you don't look like you can have the hand you have. Ppl just don't play 7 10 do they? You'd almost always raise a set on this flop so you can't really show up with a set...

Villain raised in EP so more likely for him to have big cards than 67s type hand (unless he chronically raises SC's in EP). I'd feel pretty comfortable getting it in on this turn.

Then again, I might just be in an overaggro taggy phase right now so take this with a grain of salt.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Don't make big laydowns as Gabe says.

[elipsesjeff]

I think villain has overpair/draw here alot to call this.

[DennisGPunkt2]

His line is soooooo AA/KK.

He just tries to get you off your draw.

If he REALLY has the str8 you still have min. 4 outs. Just improve your suckout skills to be sure to hit the boat.

Anyway, I'd pay this easily.

[sauce123]

I insta call here and expect to be ahead just about always.

[Alexos]

I like playing around in Pokerstove, how is this range..

Board: 5h 9c 8c Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.012% 46.01% 00.00% 1073 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 53.988% 53.99% 00.00% 1259 0.00 { KK+, JJ-88, 55, AcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QTs, JTs, QTo, JTo }

Looks like a callio

[bair]

keep in mind his range could be much wider since that kid posted UTG, still a call

[IowaSkinsFan]

keep in mind his range could be much wider since that kid posted UTG, still a call

I think you misread the HH, as far as I know this guy didn't post UTG.

Results: Being a nit, I tanked, I really wanted to put him on some hand i was beating. I realized his turn bet size made rly little sense, which is why i put him on a straight or a draw (less likely), obviously every other hand is going to make a protective bet. However, completely reasonable that even though he is passive that he plays a draw this way or is overplaying some hand.

Feeling that pokerstove is going to give me at least 35% against his range (probably more like 50%), and having 3 to 1, I called.

He showed T9, I held.

[Alexos]

T9o, yeeshhh, nh.

[IowaSkinsFan]

bitch plz.