+EV play or not?

[TreNd]

Hey there, i would think that this would be a +EV play but for some reason sng wiz says its not, any specific reasons im missing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t1930)
BB (t2740)
UTG (t3780)
Button (t6550)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, 7.
1 fold, Button calls t400, Hero raises to t1905, 1 fold, Button calls t1505.

Flop: (t3885) Q, Q, 2 (2 players)

Turn: (t3885) 7 (2 players)

River: (t3885) 8 (2 players)

Final Pot: t3885

[Fortune 500]

This depends largely on Button's range, I think.

Also consider that you're short, and button is big stack. Your push gives him 1.8 to 1, with which he can call with a wide range.

Add in that he has big stack, and I think this become a -EV play, as he can afford (mistakenly) to call wide).

I'm tempted to fold here, and then open push the button regardless of my cards next time.

[chipper5711]

Easy fold pre-flop. Surely you can pick a better hand to shove with. Ya, you're only going to last another 2 orbits, but 7-3 offsuit?

[fdnypoker]

You have the button next hand? I wait and push next hand. With the button calling in front of you knowing you may push you h ave to put him on a dominating hand to 7-3os.

[Sprayed]

-EV = You have no FE and you shoved over a limper that has a huge stack and can't be hurt if he calls and looses.

[Dice Man]

You would struggle to find a worst possible spot to push than this. Gotta be huge -EV play.

[dsmrolla06]

Agree with what sprayed says. I push atc on the button tho.

[drmcboy]

three things his limp can mean:

1) I have a meh hand and want to see a flop against shorties, I'll fold if they push and probably will win most hands on the flop.

2) I don't mind playing this hand against the 1900 stack but I'd rather get away if 2800 stack shoves. I'll probably will win most hands on the flop.

3) I don't mind playing against either stack for all their chips. I'll call if they push and probably will win most hands on the flop.

Unless you have a specific read to make you think it's 1, assume it's 2 or 3 and you're getting called.

[Alexos]

This play is bad because you have no FE.
When you're short like this, just try to be the first to open shove, and u can do this with crap because u have no choice at this point.

With the limper, I would shove broadways, A8s+, 55+ or something like that...not 73o

[taipan168]

I agree with the others, fold this and shove the next hand where you can open shove. This would be an instashove if it was folded to you in the SB given BB's stack isn't much bigger than yours though.