Bubble hand $11 SnG

[badgers]

That was a bizaare tourney... I had QQ all in against AA and A4o (lol) preflop on the very first hand, only to triple up with a straight flush...

Anyway, on topic... Reads on villains, BB has been playing extremely aggressive over the last few hands, trying to steal, resteal and generally shove chips in all the time. Lost a large portion of his stack to Button on the previous hand. Button has been making my life on the bubble very difficult. Has played soidly all game. He had limped AA earlier, so I was a little cautious pf.

I have been playing extremely aggressively on the bubble. Villains could probably put me on any two cards!

Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, April 05, 15:30:41 ET 2007
Table Table 127684 (Real Money)
Total number of players : 4
UTG ( 3,010 )
HERO (SB) ( 6,720 )
BB ( 3,060 )
Button ( 7,210 )

Trny: 32716448 Level: 5
Blinds(200/400)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qh Jh ]
UTG folds
Button calls [400]
HERO calls [200]
BB checks

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, Jc, 7h ]
HERO bets [800]
BB is all-In [2,660]
Button is all-In [6,810]
HERO.........

Am I right to call here? I am much much more worried about the Button's strength than the BB. But I seem to have so many outs though and a win would put me on 16500 of 20000 chips.

Also, the payouts are $50, $30, $20.

Thanks

[Black Sheep]

I would lay this hand down, let those two take out eachother. Either BB or Button probaly have the Ace-FD or like AJ, KJ. Wouldn't be suprised if a mid pp would show up, like 88 or 99

[badgers]

Thanks for the feedback. I understand why you would fold, but given the extremely dominant position I would be in if I won the hand I do think it was worth the call.

Out of curiousity, I've been experimenting with an odds calculator.

Against a lower jack and a higher jack the odds are

ME - 48%
KJ - 43%
J4- 4%
Split pot 3%

Against a lower jack and a (higher) flush draw

ME - 51%
A2h - 40%
J4 - 6%
Split pot - 3%

Against a higher jack and two pair

ME - 43%
JK - 12%
93 - 45%

Against a set and a higher jack

ME - 32%
33 - 65%
JK - 2%

I am also dominated against a higher jack and a flush draw

ME - 11%
A4h - 40%
JK - 47%

And very dominated against a set and flush draw and 2 pair and a flush draw.

However, given that I could probably put BB on ATC, the pot odds, and the dominant position in the tourney if I win the hand, surely the call is the correct move here?

[|~|ypermegachi]

raise preflop.
as played, insta-call allin.

[Ghandii]

Call

[Ghandii]

Or fold , theres merits to both plays.

Heres to being absolutely no help whatsoever

[acesfullokings]

The only reason I can see for a fold is that you respect the button's play and so you have to assume he possibly has the BB beaten so you can fold and let the bubble burst. Of Course calling could put you in a commanding position, I'd say there's good arguments for both.

[|~|ypermegachi]

this is a call, it's not close.
if BB wins, you got ~3k left which is plenty to fight for ITM.
if Button wins, you got 3rd.
if you win, unless you suck HU or run incredibly bad, you're getting 1st.

[Ghandii]

^^^ Good point^^^

[dsmrolla06]

Agree on all accounts with hyper. The only way your not getting itm in this hand is if you lose to the button and bb beats you both.

[taipan168]

I would fold this preflop, even getting 5:1 on the call. I don't want to get involved in a hand against the big stack when I'm second stack. Plus, if Button has played solidly all game I would expect him to be raising rather than limping here, particularly when folded to on the button with the big stack. Add to that the fact that he has limped AA previously and alarm bells start going off.

As played, as your calculations suggest, a pair plus a flush draw is a monster hand and is almost never worse than 50/50 to win against most holdings so considering the chips already in the pot I call. Plus as others have already said, the only way you're finishing OTM here is if you are beaten by both opps.

[K2 the ArmA]

I can't wait to get my money in here.

[Scuba Chuck]

As played, as your calculations suggest, a pair plus a flush draw is a monster hand and is almost never worse than 50/50 to win against most holdings so considering the chips already in the pot I call. Plus as others have already said, the only way you're finishing OTM here is if you are beaten by both opps.

I could be wrong, but my instincts are to fold here. Tai, can you do the math here?

What's disturbing here about your "monster" analysis is that we have a t1200 pot, a bet, a raise allin, followed by an allin. I really don't think we're accounting for the "trappy" nature of the 2nd allin. How do we rate against black aces here?

FWIW, I certainly could see calling here in situations other than the bubble.

[taipan168]

I think you're onto something here.

As played, as your calculations suggest, a pair plus a flush draw is a monster hand and is almost never worse than 50/50 to win against most holdings so considering the chips already in the pot I call. Plus as others have already said, the only way you're finishing OTM here is if you are beaten by both opps.

I could be wrong, but my instincts are to fold here. Tai, can you do the math here?

The ICM is a little difficult given the 3-way AIs on the flop but it is something like the following:
- If Hero folds he has 5520 chips worth 32.5% of the prize pool
- If Hero calls and wins against both BB and Button he has 17,500 chips worth 46.6% of the prize pool
- If Hero loses against Button he is out

Therefore, Hero needs to be 70% to win against Button's range to make this a good call.

What's disturbing here about your "monster" analysis is that we have a t1200 pot, a bet, a raise allin, followed by an allin. I really don't think we're accounting for the "trappy" nature of the 2nd allin. How do we rate against black aces here?

Against black aces we are 50/50 (as we are against most hands against which we need to improve to win save flopped sets) but this isn't good enough to call here since we need 70%.

Apologies - poor advice from me.

FWIW, I certainly could see calling here in situations other than the bubble.

Agreed, the bubble makes all the difference here because it is the point of greatest divergence between chip EV and $ EV, particularly when we are second stack up against the big stack.

[|~|ypermegachi]

- If Hero loses against Button he is out

Therefore, Hero needs to be 70% to win against Button's range to make this a good call.

hero has to lose to BOTH button and BB to bust. it's probably closer to 50 or 60%.

[Scuba Chuck]

Against black aces we are 50/50 (as we are against most hands against which we need to improve to win save flopped sets) but this isn't good enough to call here since we need 70%.

So what equity (or chip stack) should we have here to call?

By the way, soooooooooooo many mistakes are made with big stacks v big stacks on the bubble. I would think the best way to think about these situations is like defensive driving.

[taipan168]

- If Hero loses against Button he is out

Therefore, Hero needs to be 70% to win against Button's range to make this a good call.

hero has to lose to BOTH button and BB to bust. it's probably closer to 50 or 60%.

How we fare against Button's range is the only thing that really matters here since he is the only stack that can bust us. Maybe the equity is a little bit less than 70% but not much I'd say.

Given the above, I think the only hands I'm calling with are sets and maybe overpairs (although even those are iffy given the draws out there).

[Scuba Chuck]

- If Hero loses against Button he is out

Therefore, Hero needs to be 70% to win against Button's range to make this a good call.

hero has to lose to BOTH button and BB to bust. it's probably closer to 50 or 60%.

How we fare against Button's range is the only thing that really matters here since he is the only stack that can bust us. Maybe the equity is a little bit less than 70% but not much I'd say.

Given the above, I think the only hands I'm calling with are sets and maybe overpairs (although even those are iffy given the draws out there).

Here's an interesting exercise, how does having pocket 3s change this hand?

[taipan168]

BTW it is great to have you back, Scuba. Hang around for a while, we could certainly use your insight and experience.

Here's an interesting exercise, how does having pocket 3s change this hand?

I am instacalling with 33:

Board: 3h Jc 7h
Dead:  

	        equity 	  win   	 tie 	     
Hand 0: 	80.333%  	80.33% 	00.00% 	{ 3c3s }
Hand 1: 	19.667%  	19.67% 	00.00%    { JJ+, 77, 33, AhKh, AJs, KJs, QhJh, JhTh, AJo, KJo }

[Scuba Chuck]

I am instacalling with 33:

I'm playing devils' advocate here a little, but you're probably right. I just don't see playing any AJ hands as trappy, but then, I might be smarter than most.

Board: 3h Jc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.261% 61.26% 00.00% 2029633 0.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 29.501% 29.48% 00.02% 976706 679.50 { KK+, JJ, 77, AhKh, KhJh, QhJh }
Hand 2: 09.239% 09.22% 00.02% 305409 679.50 { Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJs, QJs, J9s+, J7s, J3s, 73s, 6h5h, 5h4h, KJo, QJo, J9o+, J7o, J3o, 73o }