Tough preflop spot with TT ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is 14/11, seems like a solid player. EV is VERY dependent upon calling ranges. Calling is +EV if he shoves wider than 10%. According to SNGPT he should shove 69% if the button, SB and myself call with 66+, AT+ but only 11% if we call with 44+, A7+, KJ+. (The reason I say this is that he probably has SNGPT and knows how to use it).

Call or fold?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400 (Ante: t25)
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1925
CO: t3425
Button: t2460
SB: t1595
Hero: t4095

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with T T
UTG folds, CO raises all-in t3400, 2 folds, Hero ????

[|~|ypermegachi]

very tough indeed.

probably tough enough that it won't affect your winrate in a significant amount over the long run.

i call because i want 1st and want to gamb000l. fold isn't bad tho.

[cfought32]

Thats about as tough as it gets I would probably call here even though you could be in trouble .You are only afraid of Jacks or better and you have less than 10x bb if you count the ante. I always hate calling all in, SNGPT would probably say this is a call as well. I think I would insta call with 9's+ or AK/ AKs. I don't think folding is a terrible play though. I am only folding if my read on the player all in is "he's a mindless rock which would only push with exactly A's or K's." Other than that I am calling here. Even if your opponent has what you fear,an over pair, you will still suck out around 20% of the time.

[Black Sheep]

very tough indeed.

probably tough enough that it won't affect your winrate in a significant amount over the long run.

i call because i want 1st and want to gamb000l. fold isn't bad tho.

YEah, i call to because i want to gamble and win it, but sure its a tough spot, but i think most of the times i would fold here, you wont have much left if you lose and go AI on ATC is a must after that. Maybe he has a midpair and wants to steal some blinds ?

[fdnypoker]

Super tough spot. I don't like calling an AI with 10-10...... If he's a solid player you're most likely in a race. There are 2 small stacks waiting to be had. Think I wait here

[Scuba Chuck]

For me, this is an insta-muck.

You two should be partnering to control the table. He's expecting you to fold as part of this partnership. Also, given this tight wad's history, you have to respect that his range is tight, but not 10% tight.

Finally, SNGPT kinda sucks in analyzing this spot because it ICM tends to give waaaay too much equity to short stacks (which is what you'd have after losing here). In other words, you need to use your judgement a little more here, not just the math. Having t600 before posting the next hand likely does not equal the real equity that ICM tends to give shorties.

[taipan168]

Good point about ICM overvaluing the $ value of a short stack when blinds are this big. One manifestation of this is that I think ICM overvalues short stacks that are about to eat the BB.

The other factor that I try to take into account here is (hopefully) the skill advantage I have relative to the table. Assuming this is marginally +EV (say +0.2% or so), I tend towards a fold. If I believed that I had a skill disadvantage relative to the table I would take this edge every time.