Face first into a set?

[Fortune 500]

Table: 12962338 (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
Seat 2 - REDROSE4ME ($1896.66 in chips)
Seat 3 - PRETTYPUPPY ($2026.66 in chips)
Seat 5 - SALTOWNS ($2100 in chips)
Seat 6 - FORTUNE500 ($2626.68 in chips)
Seat 7 - MPFIBER ($1160 in chips)
Seat 8 - TACTICAL64 ($3690 in chips)
REDROSE4ME - Posts small blind $15
PRETTYPUPPY - Posts big blind $30
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to FORTUNE500 [Qd Qh]
SALTOWNS - Folds
FORTUNE500 - Raises $90 to $90
MPFIBER - Calls $90
TACTICAL64 - Folds
REDROSE4ME - Calls $75
PRETTYPUPPY - Folds
*** FLOP *** [4h 9s 7c]
REDROSE4ME - Bets $120
FORTUNE500 - Raises $360 to $360
MPFIBER - Calls $360
REDROSE4ME - All-In(Raise) $1686.66 to $1806.66
FORTUNE500 - ???

RedRose4me has only shown down one hand, and it was solidly played. MpFiber has never made it to showdown, so we can only assume they're passive postflop. This is 16 hands in, so no real solid reads.

Am I running into a set here? Does the caller behind influence my play here?

[Scuba Chuck]

*** FLOP *** [4h 9s 7c]

REDROSE4ME - Bets $120
FORTUNE500 - Raises $360 to $360
MPFIBER - Calls $360
REDROSE4ME - All-In(Raise) $1686.66 to $1806.66
FORTUNE500 - ???

Does the caller behind influence my play here?

Um, how often can you put the caller on 56 here?

[Fortune 500]

I wouldn't think very, given my preflop raise. That's assuming rationality though, and since this is a 6+1, that's a big assumption.

[Scuba Chuck]

I wouldn't think very, given my preflop raise. That's assuming rationality though, and since this is a 6+1, that's a big assumption.

Yeah, poker sucks don't it?

[Fortune 500]

I wouldn't think very, given my preflop raise. That's assuming rationality though, and since this is a 6+1, that's a big assumption.

Yeah, poker sucks don't it?

lol... at times. A draw makes sense, certainly, since he called. I doubt a set is going to call a bet and a raise.

I think the pusher almost has to be on a set. Does anything else fit this profile?

Note: I folded, and yes, I know the results.

[dsmrolla06]

He could just as likely have 88 or 99 as a set, more likely i would think. I think i call this here.

[Fortune 500]

He could just as likely have 88 or 99 as a set, more likely i would think. I think i call this here.

99 is a set. I get what you're saying here. Not sure I agree.

[dsmrolla06]

Woops, misread flop, thought it was 457 for some reason. That changes things a little bit. At this level i dont think a set is going to lead out like that, so i think its more likely to be a draw than a set. Im going to say TT or A9 just because i want you to have the best hand.

[Fortune 500]

I didn't. I read it perfectly as a set... Pusher had 77.

He stacked the caller with an A9...

Just because I was right in this instance does not necessarily make it the right play.

[dsmrolla06]

I just dont think the lead out makes it look like a set at this level on this board. You usually see a check/call/lead turn or a check/raise/lead turn with a set here. Yao Ming?

[Fortune 500]

If I've raised preflop, and all I have to go on shows that RedRose hasn't done anything too dumb (Small sample, of course)... What can opp put me on when I raise his bet, particularly when the fish behind me calls?

Certainly a mid pair that hasn't set isn't going to lose their mind too often.

Unless they put me on an AK that missed, or something of that caliber.

I just couldn't put him on anything but a set here, or MAYBE TT-JJ.

We can assume he has called with a pair here of some nature. That's not apparent on his flop bet, but I think it is with his flop push. Wrong thinking.

He's going to reraise with AA or KK in most situations. QQ is highly unlikely... So we're looking at JJ- ?

JJ and TT likely play the same way. 44, 77, and 99 have all set. Opp should be able to fold any other pair, other than MAYBE 88?

So we're looking, I think at 44, 77, 88, 99, TT, and JJ.

Half the time I'm ahead, half the time I fold?

I'm getting a little groggy... My thinking is probably fuzzy here. I'll run it some more tomorrow.

[Scuba Chuck]

I wouldn't think very, given my preflop raise. That's assuming rationality though, and since this is a 6+1, that's a big assumption.

Yeah, poker sucks don't it?

lol... at times. A draw makes sense, certainly, since he called. I doubt a set is going to call a bet and a raise.

I think the pusher almost has to be on a set. Does anything else fit this profile?

Note: I folded, and yes, I know the results.

I think you took my comments to the exact opposite I was suggesting.
This board is so undrawy that this should be a VERY EZ fold. Of course the buyin makes it a challenge at times, but the 3bet and the cold-call are both very scary with this board.

[Scuba Chuck]

At this level i dont think a set is going to lead out like that, so i think its more likely to be a draw than a set. .

What is it about the action that makes you think that the level matters more than the flop action? Specifically, at what level does a lead of t120 into a t300 pot, then 3 bet after a ~PSR (pot size raise) and a cold-call mean weak hand?

[Scuba Chuck]

JJ and TT likely play the same way. 44, 77, and 99 have all set. Opp should be able to fold any other pair, other than MAYBE 88?

So we're looking, I think at 44, 77, 88, 99, TT, and JJ.
.

Why is it that I think TT and JJ are less likely than the others?
PS - you really should not disclose results this quickly.

[dsmrolla06]

You see this action all the time from hands that QQ beats even in the 22s and 33s. I think automatically putting villain on a set is too narrow of a range and is too weak tight. Im not saying i would never lay this down, because 97 wouldnt surprise me here either. I just have a hard time putting him on a set with how fast he played it and how dry this board is.

[Scuba Chuck]

You see this action all the time from hands that QQ beats even in the 22s and 33s. I think automatically putting villain on a set is too narrow of a range and is too weak tight. Im not saying i would never lay this down, because 97 wouldnt surprise me here either. I just have a hard time putting him on a set with how fast he played it and how dry this board is.

I think you're missing the point. Only one of them needs to have a set, not just the 3bettor. Both of their actions represents strength and of course possible donkishness at the same time. If it were just one other in the hand, well then I agree with your analysis above, but having two in a hand, generally speaking, changes the landscape.

I should emphasize that this action DOES NOT ALWAYS mean that we're beat. But I think the times that we're ahead here does not outweigh the times we're dogmeat. In fact, it's those "one time" type of situations that convince us to call here and prevents us from moving up in stakes.

[Fortune 500]

Upon further review, this hand is pretty simple. Now that I'm not groggy tired and looking at it with some distance between me and the hand, it should be painfully obvious I'm beat.

Sometimes, I like to imagine a hand as a conversation held with chips. Bear with me while I get overly simplistic.

I start the Conversation:

Me: I like my hand. I think it's very likely the best. I raise.
MPViper: While that may be true, I have position on you, and a speculative hand that I'd like to see a flop with.
RedRose (Who At this point, has shown me solid play - a belief later backed up by what was actually very good play throughout the tournament) enters the conversation: I too have a speculative hand, but it must have the capability to flop big if I'm going to play it out of position. Let's See a flop.

(Flop Occurs)

RedRose: I like that flop so much, I'm going to make a small bet into a big pot.
Me: Well, I realize you have hit the flop. But I don't THINK You've hit it hard enough to outdraw me. Did you?
MPViper: I am going to be coy. I've either hit this flop REALLY hard, or I've hit it just enough to stay in the hand. You Figure it out.
Redrose: I assure you, sirs... you are so beat.
Me: I give, I give. I will live to fight another day.
MpViper: But... I can't fold this.... Arrrrgh! I'm bleeding!

I know that's silly... but that's essentially how it plays out. The only two hands that play like that postflop CONCEIVABLY are TT and JJ, but they probably aren't going clear to the felt with that.

I have a good stack and plenty of play. I don't see a need to get broke with one pair. If two opponents are showing strength, and apparently willing to go down with this, how good can an overpair be?

Later in the tournament I get broke here, but all my chips are probably in preflop.

[Fortune 500]

JJ and TT likely play the same way. 44, 77, and 99 have all set. Opp should be able to fold any other pair, other than MAYBE 88?

So we're looking, I think at 44, 77, 88, 99, TT, and JJ.
.

Why is it that I think TT and JJ are less likely than the others?
PS - you really should not disclose results this quickly.

Those hands are more likely to reraise preflop at this level, and more likely to check call, or check raise postflop.

Is my flop line okay here, with the feeler raise to determine where I am at in the hand? I feel like it got me the information I needed at a relatively cheap price.