TPNK in the BB, is this spewing chips? ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is 29/0 over only 21 hands. Is this spewing chips? From my experience this kind of flop overbet is very often a draw rather than something that has top pair beat.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t2060)
MP2 (t1360)
MP3 (t1490)
CO (t1440)
Button (t1380)
SB (t1420)
Hero (t1425)
UTG (t1345)
UTG+1 (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K.
UTG calls t100, 1 fold, MP1 calls t100, 5 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t350) K, 7, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t500, MP1 folds, Hero raises to t1325

[ChrisTheFish]

Sometimes i think your outkicked here, but mostly i agree with you that the bet usually represents a draw... i like the play

[|~|ypermegachi]

i noticed a trend lately when i play. when the blinds get to 50/100 and there are still 9 players, i play HORRIBLY.

basically, we're in push range already, but 75% of the time we have horrible position.

i haven't really figured out how to deal with it when i'm one of the shorties in the situations (basically everyone's short except for 2 guys with slightly bigger stacks). recently i've just been gamb000ling in this situation with a lot of mediocre hands. seems like that's all we can do.

[givememyleg]

Meh, you can never call here and can you really fold? I think this is just one of those "whatever nothing I can do about it" pushes.

Any reason you chose to c/r rather than lead?

[taipan168]

Any reason you chose to c/r rather than lead?

I was convinced that one of the three opps would bet the flop, and I want to maximise my FE here against something like K9/KT that might fold if I C-R all-in. I suppose that was one of my questions too, whether leading is a better line here than C-R.

[dev]

I like it. If your opponents have showed you the ability to fold in earlier hands, this is a good play in my book.

I've tried a lot of stuff like this recently in different limits and games. I get myself into trouble with lower buyins, but most of the higher SNGs and tourneys they usually can fold TP.

Then again, say you're right. If he has a draw then you're giving him like 2.5:1. That's good enough for any draw. If he's got something like Axd, he has 12 outs to beat you, which is better than a 3:2 dog. On second thought, I think you lose to a draw enough that this play is marginal at best.

[dsaxton]

I think you should just bet the flop. Having checked, pushing over the flop overbet seems fine. He's swollen the pot and made it too costly to fold the best hand. His bet typically doesn't represent much strength anyways.

[Sprayed]

I think you need to lead this flop. With your stack size, I don't see why you can't go busto here.

[Scuba Chuck]

From my experience this kind of flop overbet is very often a draw rather than something that has top pair beat.

Isn't this all that matters? Just make sure your "experience" isn't biased to what you want to think it to mean.

[Fnord]

I would fold this.

[drmcboy]

using your 'stats', he never raises so he can easily have a better K here protecting against the draw. /end rant

I don't like it because if he has a draw it's often A high and you're flipping, or you're crushed. He doesn't show up with K5 or TT here much.

[Sprayed]

Should he lead this flop? What does he do if he leads and UTG pushes?