Theory Post- Thin Value Betting

[sauce123]

So... the other day I was reading a couple threads on 2p2 about some CONTROVERSIAL msnl and hsnl topics- "the two-way bet" and "merging your range."

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0167797&page=1

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0#Post10144378

I donno, when I read these two threads a lot of it seemed like a bunch of bullshit and random arguments over terminology, but I think the most important concepts were in the HSNL thread and were said by Durr and Jman, which is basically "If you can make a value bet, which according to an opponent's range, hovers around 0 ev, you should definitely make it. Call it a "pressure bet" because while it doesn't make you immediate profits it allows you to not get bluffed/outplayed and makes your opponent's hand ranges easier to read while it makes yours more difficult." There are examples/discussion in the thread and I'm guessing this is one of the more important attributes winning msnl and hsnl players have...

So what I got out of this was one important thing: in today's (tougher) games, everytime I have the opportunity to bet with a hand which rates to be the best hand 50% of the time when I am called I should DEFINITELY make the bet, and I should even err on the side of betting too wide a range because of the metagame/ability to tilt people that its going to cause. That means if we know an opponent is going to conceivably call down with ace high on a 9s 8s 4c 2h Jd board say, we can bet with A4 or 55+ or something similar to that, which is pretty mindblowing I think.

So thats really just my preface/something to think about. The post I am actually trying to make is an anthology of spots where I attempt to vbet in what I perceive to be "thin spots." There are definitely thinner spots than this, these are just a few pretty recent ones. There will be a few where I get called by better, some where I get called by worse (Also, as you do this more and more often and more and more effectively, your image gets better and you can value bet worse and worse on all streets... think of Gabe). What I am trying to get across is just in general people at SSNL here on FTR have great fundamentals, but I think one of the single biggest leaks people have, which accounts for the 1.5 PT BB/100 winrates and such at 25, 50, 100 and 200nl is constantly missing thin value, which is going to improve your image and allow us to tilt the donks, regs and everyone in between...

Now I donno if a lot of people on FTR think OMG STD to a lot of these but I know I see a ton of people on the forums posting hands where they fail to bet in spots a loooot more clear cut than this. We only have to win 50% of the time when called. This something I am working on a lot, and its one of the things which is going to decide whether I will be a solid winner in bigger games in the months/years to come...


Hand 1: CO is a 23/33 or something bad LAG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($108.40)
CO ($491.85)
Hero ($3053.35)
SB ($1063.50)
BB ($600)
UTG ($681)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, Q.
2 folds, CO raises to $12, Hero raises to $39, 2 folds, CO calls $27.

Flop: ($87) 4, K, 6 (2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero raises to $114, CO calls $90.

Turn: ($315) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero raises to $102, CO calls $78.

River: ($519) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $339,


Hand 2: Villain is a 20/11 mediocre TAG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($182.25)
SB ($803.60)
BB ($171.20)
Hero ($1797.10)
MP ($600)
CO ($2535.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9.
Hero raises to $24, MP calls $24, 4 folds.

Flop: ($57) 2, 3, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $39, MP calls $39.

Turn: ($135) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $87, MP calls $87.

River: ($309) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $150,


Hand 3: Villain is a 55/4 genuine loose passive

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($653.85)
Button ($633)
SB ($222.90)
BB ($539.85)
Hero ($1166.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A.
Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, Button calls $24, 1 fold, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($75) 3, 5, 4 (3 players)
BB bets $54, Hero calls $54, Button calls $54.

Turn: ($237) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $132, Button folds, BB calls $132.

River: ($501) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $330,


Hand 4: Villain is DaTrip a 21/15 TAG reg

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($600)
Button ($708.30)
SB ($3091.95)
BB ($609)
Hero ($1241)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 5.
Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, SB calls $21, 1 fold.

Flop: ($54) Q, T, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $39, SB calls $39.

Turn: ($132) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $129, SB calls $129.

River: ($390) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $170,


Hand 5: Villain is Anakinso a 30/23 thinking LAG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($600)
UTG ($1980.75)
Button ($755)
SB ($751)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T, 9.
2 folds, SB raises to $24, Hero calls $18.

Flop: ($48) 5, 7, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $33, SB calls $33.

Turn: ($114) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60.

River: ($234) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $153,



Soooo... post which ones you think I won, which I lost, and what villain's most likely hands were... obviously if you feel like it, Im kind of thinking out loud on this issue...

[sauce123]

O yea the 2 all in ones the villains called both times I left the other 3 blank cause one of the hands I get river check raised...

[griffey24]

I like the bets in 2, 3 and 4 and would probably often make these bets as well.

I'm not sure on 1 and 5.

In hand 1, I think you are only getting called by better hands. If villain DOESN"T have the flush in hand 1, then he will be even less likely to make a marginal call here. So I think the flush card makes it more likely that you will get called only by hands that beat you.

In hand 5, I often check through here. Same reasoning as the first. The river card will scare villain out of calling worse marginal hands. I would like this bet more if it was a Q or K or something, since the A high spade draw just hit the ace.

[IowaSkinsFan]

All these hands are great.

The thing I like about this post was something i was thinking recently when lyric asked me to pull up my stats for AJ UTG. Lyric has been looking at whether it was profitable to play AJ utg in the long run. Everyone he had talked to so far were in the red with it. At that point it dawned on me that, "But wait, even if we're losing a bit with AJ we should still play it right?"

It's really interesting that if we are completely break even or a little in the minus with a hand we should still play it.

Just clarifying is the math really just if u thin you are ahead 50% when called then you should v bet?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Uber thin? If you don't vbet here (which is a shove i think) what hand do you vbet? The best hand mcat has had with this line is tp, which hasn't been that much, most of the time it's been mid/low pairs.
POKERSTARS GAME #9672345309: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.05/$0.10) - 2007/04/29 - 20:08:25 (ET)
Table 'Dorado V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: redgrape ($21.40 in chips)
Seat 4: mcatdog ($19.60 in chips)
mcatdog: posts small blind $0.05
redgrape: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Td 7d]
mcatdog: raises $0.20 to $0.30
redgrape: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [Th 2d 6h]
redgrape: checks
mcatdog: bets $0.50
redgrape: raises $1.60 to $2.10
mcatdog: calls $1.60
*** TURN *** [Th 2d 6h] [4c]
redgrape: bets $4.30
mcatdog: calls $4.30
*** RIVER *** [Th 2d 6h 4c] [Ac]
redgrape:

[Alexos]

This is an very important concept and I'm glad you wrote a post about it, thx.

Hand 1: I like this and do this, but I would have liked it much much more if the club didnt hit on river, so idk. You got c/r?

Hand 5: Hand 1 and 5 are very similar. But I like this one much more because the spade draw missed, and you might get a hero call from a lower pair. Then again, I would have liked it alot more if something like a blank (2 or 3...even a 5 or 7) fell on river.

Hand 4: Im not sure about this one. You wont make someone fold a better hand like ever unless its a higher flush, even then...This hand is the least "value bet" of all, but has its merits as you discussed in your post.
Edit: nm just realized the Q there, you'll get called by worse i like

The others are pretty standard.

[c-luvin]

I think betting for thin value is a huge part of any laggy players game. Its different for a tag who is "capable of making moves". But for someone like me or you sauce its gunna be a huge part of our game because of the DB TB and random bluffs. The reason i say this is because when we make a river bet and our opponent has a hand that can only beat a bluff we gets calls because bluffing is a large part of our range. thats why i like hands like number 5, because youll get called down light by 578 because they think a made hand will be scared of the ace and check behind. a great example of this is one i played against danny (ISF) in our room the other night.
we are heads up i have A10 on the button. I raise 4x danny calls, flop comes QQ6 2 clubs. dannys checks i bet 6 he raises to 20 i call. turn comes a 2 and it goes check check. river comes a 4 and at this point im snap calling any bet up to pot with my ace high, danny bets 150 into a 50 dollar pot. I tank for like 5 minutes and fold and he shows A4. i could only beat a bluff but i figured his range was about half bluffs here because hes smart enought o realise hes getting called down with a river bet after taking that line very light.
weak value is key against thinking players

[Genitruc]

They all seem good to me based on the concept you outlined at the top.

I like 1 and 2 a lot (villains looks like they hold JJ/QQ/KQ/KJ and 44/55/66 respectively)

3 seems fine, just get ready to get CR by 5x

4 is my favourite (u get looked up oh so much by worse and it's an easy fold if villain CR unless you guys have some sick history)

5 seems thinnest to me. Laggy thinking villains will check-call gutshot Ax hands OOP here quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if you were shown A9 in this spot. Obv he might also be calling you down w A7 so it's fine. If I'm villain and I have A7, I play exactly like Anakinso and CR AI on river.

[gabe]

making a bet that is 0EV instead of checking is almost always good, but there are a few exceptions where checking is better

good post though

[2_Thumbs_Up]

there are a few exceptions where checking is better

I can't think of a single situation. Elaborate?

[sauce123]

making a bet that is 0EV instead of checking is almost always good, but there are a few exceptions where checking is better

good post though

I would say the most common instance of when checking is better is when you want to alter/create an image to manipulate an opponent, however against tough aggro regs who know you have a hand RANGE and can change gears/mix it up making these bets is prolly best just about always

[euphoricism]

These are why I will never succeed past 50NL

[gabe]

making a bet that is 0EV instead of checking is almost always good, but there are a few exceptions where checking is better

good post though

I would say the most common instance of when checking is better is when you want to alter/create an image to manipulate an opponent, however against tough aggro regs who know you have a hand RANGE and can change gears/mix it up making these bets is prolly best just about always

also i think its good to check and reduce variance when you have a deep stack and there is a deep fish at the table..there are probably more stacksize considerations im not thinking of that probably mean something since u can only reload up to 100bb

[Alexos]

Like this?

PokerStars Game #9685533646: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2007/04/30 - 17:07:11 (ET)
Table 'Nysa IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: tigerti ($362.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Dzsenaj ($400 in chips)
Seat 3: floppingnuts ($409.30 in chips)
Seat 4: alexos888 ($559 in chips)
Seat 5: ManiacRazor ($368 in chips)
Seat 6: THEcobbler81 ($899.50 in chips)
tigerti: posts small blind $2
Dzsenaj: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to alexos888 [Th Ts]
floppingnuts: folds
alexos888: raises $8 to $12
ManiacRazor: calls $12
THEcobbler81: folds
tigerti: folds
Dzsenaj: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 9c 3s]
alexos888: bets $24
ManiacRazor: raises $26 to $50
alexos888: calls $26
*** TURN *** [3h 9c 3s] [6d]
alexos888: bets $75
ManiacRazor: calls $75
*** RIVER *** [3h 9c 3s 6d] [Ah]
alexos888: bets $175

[swiggidy]

These are why I will never succeed past 50NL

The additional requirement for low-stakes players is not calling a push after making these "value bets". That's a big problem of mine.

[zenbitz]

1) villian's line is just too weird for me to bet the river. I'm not saying you didn't win when he called with like KJ or JJ, but I cannot predict that he ever calls when behind on the river here.

2) I think is pure value - you think he folds an overpair? I don't like a check here OOP, so you gotta block/value bet.

3) see 2) what could he fold? Not double ended.

4) here is where you got check/raised. decent player won't put you on a b/d flush, and villain could easily have JT boat or something. This is double ended because if the guy is in a nitty mood he might fold a slightly better flush.

5) Whenever I do 5 I get looked up by weak aces. I can't seem him calling flop with a T better kicker that beats you. Might fold JJ/QQ. I think this is better than 1.

The problem between the "thin value" and "two-way" CONCEPTS is that you can't really calculate value precisely - becuase

a) our reads are not perfect
b) our opponents are not bots (even if we knew their holdings, they don't act the same way everytiem)
c) our opponents reads are not perfect, if even they are reading at all!

What this means is that we are always guessing what will happen when we bet/don't bet. A bet could be thin EV because some combination of the above factors (including opp. blurring range, etc.) or it could be thin because opps range is very well defined, but either crushing us or air (with = probability).

So take hand 1:
Pre flop - we can narrow him down to whatever he calls a 3-bet OOP with. Probably something playable (SC, mid-pair, AX with X probably T+). He's laggy so this is quite wide. Now, he donk-tiny-bets flop and turn and calls our raise(s) on a draw heavy board. The only thing I think he doesn't have is 22 and air.

River completes obv. draw - what can villian have
1) Flush
2) straight/two pair/set - I would THINK he raises the turn.
3) AK
4) KX
5) other weak pair, like 55/88

So, we are beat by hands 1-3, and beat 4/5 other. Villian CHECKS river. Would he do this with a strong hand (indending to c/r) - sure he might, especially if you are not pegged as a weak foldy player (you're not, right?). Would he check/call weakish hands like sets? Sure, he might. Would he fold them if you bet? Probably not since we don't have a ready that he's a big lay down guy. I can't imaging that he has a hand like 34 here only to fold to a river club.

So as a bluff, our hand has very little value - probably negative value.
I think it's obvious that our hand has MORE value vs. weaker hands, but is it enough?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Like this?

PokerStars Game #9685533646: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2007/04/30 - 17:07:11 (ET)
Table 'Nysa IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: tigerti ($362.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Dzsenaj ($400 in chips)
Seat 3: floppingnuts ($409.30 in chips)
Seat 4: alexos888 ($559 in chips)
Seat 5: ManiacRazor ($368 in chips)
Seat 6: THEcobbler81 ($899.50 in chips)
tigerti: posts small blind $2
Dzsenaj: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to alexos888 [Th Ts]
floppingnuts: folds
alexos888: raises $8 to $12
ManiacRazor: calls $12
THEcobbler81: folds
tigerti: folds
Dzsenaj: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 9c 3s]
alexos888: bets $24
ManiacRazor: raises $26 to $50
alexos888: calls $26
*** TURN *** [3h 9c 3s] [6d]
alexos888: bets $75
ManiacRazor: calls $75
*** RIVER *** [3h 9c 3s 6d] [Ah]
alexos888: bets $175

I either c/f or c/c this river or bet less.

[Alexos]

didnt u read the thread
we need to value BET!

[Genitruc]

I like the 1010 hand

I think it's a good example of what Sauce is talking about

[zenbitz]

making a bet that is 0EV instead of checking is almost always good, but there are a few exceptions where checking is better

The trick is telling -EV from 0 EV.

I like Alexos' example, although his is really leaning towards bluff.

Another theoretical thought: Alexos has TT, villians range is probably 88-QQ, + stuff that crushes us or air.

In order for his bet to be +EV, the sum has to be +EV.
Villains hands:
A: 99<
B: JJ+
Folds(A) + Calls(A) + Folds(B) + Calls(B) > 0
Folds(A) is 0.
Calls(B) is < 0.

There is a multiplicative probability here - the P that he holds (each) hand in each range, and the probability he folds or calls (or raises) with it. Assuming we are acting last on the river after opp has checked...

P(A)*Pfold(A)*ZERO + P(B)*Pfold(B) *POT + P(A)*Pcall(A) *BET - P(B)*Pcall(B)*BET + raise terms.

Let's ignore raises. The default assumption when you make a value bet is that opp has a worse hand and will call. Ideally P(A) = 1 and Pcall(A) = 1. Also, should opp have a better hand p(B) then he will never fold Pfold(B) = 0.

So our EV is usually: [P(A)-P(B)]*BET Accounting for the fact that sometimes he has nothing and folds it (common)
EV = [P(A)*Pcall(A)-P(B)]*BET.

The EV becomes "double ended" if P(B)*Pfold(B) is significant. For POT >> BET it doesn't even have to be THAT significant, because you make so much money when he folds a better hand. Note that this is why you should "never fold in a big pot".

[Alexos]

Disagree about the range. I think 97s+, 22-JJ, A3s is more likely considering flop and turn.

[Alexos]

Oh, and I actually thought I was WA here. Which turned out to be true since he folded. I mean, the only hand I was scared of is JJ or 99, A9 as well but less likely. And by betting the river I have a good chance of making JJ fold too. Go thin value bets!

[zenbitz]

9X is just another P(A) to you (I agree it is in his range - maybe quite a bit since he raises flop). A3 is covered under "something that crushes you and will never fold".

OK, so you say P(A) >> P(B) here. But how much of P(A) does he actually call with?
I DO think this is a case where Pfold(B) is non-zero (JJ/QQ).

[Genitruc]

I think the more aggressive Alexos' image, the more effective the river play becomes.

[sauce123]

Alexos- Yea I definitely like the TT hand. Your are going to make a reasonable sized bet to rep this ace sometimes and so this is a perfect example of his range being 22-33 literally, with a bet being close to 0 ev, and this lets you off a difficult river decision.
Sometimes he will fold QQ here and sometimes he will call with 22...

[Jager]

Sauce: I like all your hands I use these lines quite frequently.

Alexos:I check that river alot(read dependent), but I find that most players will bluff this A after they called you down with KQ.

[sauce123]

This is a really fun hand- my image is crrrazy. Villain is adam a good 400nl reg we are donking around with. I have 3betting him and betting like crazy...


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($94.50)
UTG ($100.50)
Hero ($347.80)
CO ($141.40)
Button ($211.90)
SB ($99)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($13.50) 3, 7, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $9.5, CO folds, Button raises to $24, Hero raises to $54, Button calls $30.

Turn: ($121.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($121.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $289.8 (All-In)

[IowaSkinsFan]

He told me he thought u had nothing.