Is this always a set? (25nl 6 max)

[snowbird4life]

Playing 25nl 6max from the button, guy sat down a couple orbits ago, nothing has seemed unusual with his play so far. Here is his pokeredge:http://www.poker-edge.com/whoami.php?name=darthczyz i was looking at.

NEW HAND
darthczyz posts the small blind $0.10
BSH28 posts the big blind $0.25

DEALING POCKETS
waterbobb folds
hotdogg23 calls $0.25
Dealt to Hero: [ Qd, Ts ] calls $0.25 (button)
darthczyz calls $0.15
BSH28 checks

DEALING FLOP (Qc,8s,3h)
darthczyz checks
BSH28 checks
hotdogg23 checks
hero bets $1.20
darthczyz calls $1.20
BSH28 folds
hotdogg23 folds

DEALING TURN (4s)
darthczyz bets $2.00
hero calls $2.00

DEALING RIVER (Th)
darthczyz goes all in $29.95
hero: what the hell?
hero, it's your turn. You have 10 seconds to act
hero, it's your turn. You have 5 seconds to act
hero folds (2 pair, queens and tens)
$29.95 is not called, return back to darthczyz
darthczyz mucks
darthczyz wins($7.05)

Is this always a set? Was it a mistake to call the $2 on the turn? Was that a huge warning sign? the push on the river is just like wtf especially with a nondrawy board and me holding top two pair? im thinking this is a flopped set of 3's, maybe 8's, possibly 910 but doubtful, im pretty sure i made the right decision but tell me what you think.

[Miffed22001]

i call.

[vaks]

ya this seems like a pretty standard call... I think your usually ahead here trips would seem to bet a more callable amount on the river...

[snowbird4life]

thats what i first thought as well, without much of a read he seemed solid so far though, i guess i just used his pokeredge notes to fold, it says he is a "shark" and is tight/agro, so i figured he wouldn't do that with anything but a set... hmmmm oh well

[Miffed22001]

stop trusting 3rd party stats that arent PT ones and start calling when your hand is too string and he doesnt take a typical set line.

[bode]

this is a set way more than you think. $10nl and $25nl guys love to push the nuts on the river because they read it was the thing to do somewhere.

[snowbird4life]

anyone else have opinions on this? i would have loved to see what he really had, just in my mind, i figured he wouldn't do that with anything but a set. He check called on the flop, a $2 bet into me on the turn, and a river shove?

While it seems like a donkish move, in his mind he may have been thinking slowplay zomg i hit a set of threes!, bet $2 on the turn when there are two spades, then when the river was innocent, he shoved hopeing to get all my money, i know its not a play you or I would make but ive run into plenty of $25nl players that shove the river with the nuts, would a donk like him make this play with a set? or am i ahead here 90 percent of the time?

[bigspenda73]

He had Ts9s and mooooved you off your hand.

[Miffed22001]

this is such a bad fold with top two.

[Pythonic]

villian had J9 and hit his straight

[rewfie40]

yea i say he has j9 or a set. I play $25 nl and have called giant river pushes from an oop player thinking its an attempt to move me off my hand and they flip the nuts/near nuts.

[snowbird4life]

yeah i agree with you refie40, well at least i did at the time, now im just confused. At these stakes at least in my experience so far, huge river pushes by these monkeys are often the nuts or near nuts, for some reason, they think they need to get value out of their "amazing" hand or something... but i dont know, so far from this thread the tally is:

Your beat: 3 peoples opinions
Bad laydown: 3 peoples opinions