AA near the bubble: what's the best play?

[jimmy44]

Guys,

Here's a hand from the $6 rebuy at Party.

Hero's M = 13.5
#Game No : 5944726389
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:33287954 Level:10 Blinds-Antes(800/1,600 -50) - Sunday, May 06, 19:02:49 ET 2007
Table $10K Gtd Rebuy (1016232) Table #11 (Real Money)
Condensed history provided by the Tournament Trimmer (v1.1.1w) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Hero ( 38,680 )
Seat 8: fredi07 ( 75,990 )
Seat 9: spongybread ( 57,610 )
Seat 2: raynoslick ( 123,610 )
Seat 5: dzsinn6 ( 93,191 )
Seat 3: blund123 ( 22,440 )
Seat 7: scuderatti ( 8,400 )
Seat 4: wes026111 ( 63,900 )
Seat 10: Stalie88 ( 34,050 )
Seat 6: haggy666 ( 97,602 )
Trny:33287954 Level:10
Blinds-Antes(800/1,600 -50)
Hero posts ante [50]
raynoslick posts ante [50]
blund123 posts ante [50]
wes026111 posts ante [50]
dzsinn6 posts ante [50]
haggy666 posts ante [50]
scuderatti posts ante [50]
fredi07 posts ante [50]
spongybread posts ante [50]
Stalie88 posts ante [50]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac As ]
fredi07 folds
spongybread calls [1,600]
Stalie88 raises [6,400]
Hero ????

Reads:
Table has turned tight since the 800/400 blinds and normally there are 2 or 3 guys maximum seeing a flop that was raised pre-flop. Spongybread is a solid player, playing around 20% of pots and raising pre-flop about 7-9%. Stalie888 seems weak and tight pre-flop and post-flop, raising pre-flop about 3-5%.

My image:
I've been tight (playing very few pots), I've mostly bet for value, however, the other players only saw one hand from me where I had a medium strength hand and I bet strong.

Status of the tourney:
There are 170 left and top 80 get paid.

What do you do here? Do you raise to 12k? Do you push or do you call?
My toughts:
- Raise to 12k: will make sure that no one else enters the pot (spongygread would fold, except if he's limping with AA/KK/AK) a part from Stalie88, he might fold however.
- Push: This would show weakness and I might get called due to the only hand I showed down as explained in my image above.
- Call: Risky approach but I would most certainly get a call from Spongybread and I might get re-raised PF when I can then push.

At this stage of the tourney, with a cold head I would tend to go on the Call approach, If I'm lucky enough to double or tripple up I'll have an M of 26-40 where I can steal some pots and reach ITM with a good stack.
Small re-raising will more often then not (with my image) result in only a call from Stallie88 and a fold on the flop, I would get eventually 6000 more chips, but that's it ...
Pushing is simply out of the question in my view.

What do you do?

Thanks!

[Sprayed]

I push. I think that this will look more like a weaker hand than AA. If you reraise it will set off alarm bells. He obviously has a decent hand since he 4xed it after the limper and he will probably call. A smooth call might be ok, and could induce someone to squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze. But, I doubt it because of the limper.

[dsmrolla06]

I dont mind a push either, id rather do that than raise to 12k. I dont really like a call because with the table you described it sounds like you could get 2-3 cold callers and be going to the flop with AA 4 handed. I think a push is the best play. You stated villain has been playing pretty tight and he raised with a limper so he likes his hand. Your push is going to definately show strength, but it wont look like aces. If he has AK, JJ+, and maybe AQ you could get a call. You want to play for stacks here.

[LordVTR]

I push here. A raise to 12K smacks too much of wanting a call in my opinion, whereas a shove could be interpreted as weaker hand where wedont want action. I'm amazed the number of times I see all in re raises called by 88-QQ and AJ+ at these buy ins. If your read on him as tight is good, he prolly has at least JJ+ or AK to raise in ep after a limper. Calling is an option but if it ends up 3 way or more our chances of being beat by a set or 2 pair increase if the flop is unkind to us. If it gets folded, we still increase our stack by nearly 30% which is still a pretty good result.

[drmcboy]

Yeah I don't like calling, there are some huge stacks that can easily afford 6k. it's close between re raise and push.

[Monty9]

Near the bubble??? there are 90 spots to go.

Why is pushing out of the question??? Are you trying to ITM only??

Nothing wrong with that as I have been there myseld and often times play a staged goal structure in tourneys. ie: get ITM, then a $$ goal then FT. etc. One rule I usually stick to though is that I will usually risk it for big hand like AA, KK. those are worth the risk IMO. and may jump you to the FT ( skipping over a stage sort of speak ).

and as someone said picking up the pot here is a 30% stack boost. Letting you continue to play as tight as you want a few more orbits.

I think you'd be kicking yourself if you call or raise and get called by a suited AK. and have a stra8ty/flushy board flop.

If it was early then maybe a call or a raise to build the pot. But isn't this a spot dream of AA and going to the matress with it, especially as a tighty. Isn't this what tightys wait for??

[drmcboy]

Nothing wrong with that as I have been there myseld and often times play a staged goal structure in tourneys. ie: get ITM, then a $$ goal then FT. etc. One rule I usually stick to though is that I will usually risk it for big hand like AA, KK. those are worth the risk IMO. and may jump you to the FT ( skipping over a stage sort of speak ).

playing to get ITM is never going to be profitable long term, you should play SNGs instead.

I think OP meant pushing is out of the question because with his image he's worried he'll just get folds.

[Reidak]

Monty, your advice goes againts everything good players try to teach other players. You dont go for the money. Going for the moneys just shows that you are underrolled, and would be happy with constant, little paydays to keep you BR comfy and you can sleep better at night. Go ftw, youll make more money instead of little cashes.

Any btw, just push.

[dsmrolla06]

Nothing wrong with that as I have been there myseld and often times play a staged goal structure in tourneys. ie: get ITM, then a $$ goal then FT. etc.

Not to be harsh, but this is a terrible way to play a tournament. Theres nothing i like more than playing at a table with a bunch of medium-short stacks trying to fold their way to a payout increase.

[AApoker]

This might be a play by the raiser to push out the limper and take down his call and the blinds. If you think the players behind you will call if you call then you must re-raise. I feel 12k would be good here, giving the original raiser odds to call your re-raise and likely pushing out the original limper. If you are fairly confident that nobody behind you calls, I like calling and hopefully seeing this flop 3 handed. Obviously the goal here is to play for your stack and double/triple through, NOT to get everyone to fold.

[jimmy44]

Thanks for the comments guys!

The push for me was not a good option as I was quite positive that the initial raiser would fold anything except QQ+, and that I would simply get the 10k on the pot.
The advantage of calling was that I was also pretty confident that no one else (except from the initial limper) would enter the pot except with a pretty good hand (due to the table dynamics), plus there was the chance of someone trying to squeeze.

Obviously the goal here is to play for your stack and double/triple through, NOT to get everyone to fold.

This is why for me the call is a better option compared to re-raising to 12k ...

[Monty9]

Your right, I misinterpeted OPs question and reason for not wanting to push. I also underestimated his skill level.

As for my strategy. I do not play all tourneys this way and know of several beginers that do like to see how deep they can go etc.

I have made seveal final tables this way and also play a more aggresive style at times and done well also.

I sometimes keep this mindset to keep me out of trouble spots and not pushing small edges when I really don't have to.

Thanks for your comments harsh or not. We are all here for the same reason.

Didn't mean to hi-jack this thread, just wanted to clear it up a bit.

[AApoker]

Thanks for the comments guys!

The push for me was not a good option as I was quite positive that the initial raiser would fold anything except QQ+, and that I would simply get the 10k on the pot.
The advantage of calling was that I was also pretty confident that no one else (except from the initial limper) would enter the pot except with a pretty good hand (due to the table dynamics), plus there was the chance of someone trying to squeeze.

Obviously the goal here is to play for your stack and double/triple through, NOT to get everyone to fold.

This is why for me the call is a better option compared to re-raising to 12k ...

I do agree that a call is a decent option, however if you call you are likely getting 2 callers (the original limper and the raiser). You do need some sort of assurance people behind you will be shut-out. At this point the big blind is getting decent odds to call. Since this is a $6 tourney -- you must realize that players behind you are going to call also with a KQ type hand. Basically the point is -- 2 callers is about the maximum you want, you certainly don't want your aces to see 4-5 callers and for that reason I think a re-raise is also a legitamate move. This is very read dependent though -- have the players behind you been playing tight enough that they won't call or is the re-raise required to shut them out?

[jimmy44]

have the players behind you been playing tight enough that they won't call or is the re-raise required to shut them out?

My reads on the table was that no one else would call behind without a good hand. My reads were:
- A re-raise would get everyone out and maybe the initial raiser also (maximum 1 limper).
- A call would maybe get the initial limper in (maximum 2 limpers). Of course we can never be sure, but I think this risk was worth taking with my M, no?

[drmcboy]

If you're so sure a push was never getting called, were you going to shove any two? If not, why not?

Here is what you said about Stalie

Stalie888 seems weak and tight pre-flop and post-flop, raising pre-flop about 3-5%.

3 % is JJ+, AK. 5% is 99+ and AQ+. So you get called by most of the hands in his range. Also, he raised a limper so I it seems more likely he's in the high end here.

If he's weak post flop, the hands that won't call pre flop (AQ, 99-TT) don't hit much anyway, there is only one A left. I also assume this means you don't think he'll c-bet. This would be especially true in an (at least) three way pot where he's OOP and a tight player (you) has called from EP.

You have AA. Short of folding, there isn't really a bad play to make. Calling is OK. You just have to ask yourself if it's the best play. Given your stack size, you're charging everyone at the table 6500 to try and outrun your AA for the 32000 you have left. That isn't too bad, but it is a great price for them given most of the time they will play their hand pretty well against you - meaning you aren't going to stack 55 very much if ever, but it is stacking you about 1 in 8 times.

[Sprayed]

3 % is JJ+, AK. 5% is 99+ and AQ+. So you get called by most of the hands in his range. Also, he raised a limper so I it seems more likely he's in the high end here.

This was my read as well for making a push more effective.

[dsmrolla06]

Him being so tight was my reasoning for pushing as well since he probly likes his hand alot.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

cold calling here essentially gives away your hand too, especially when you're probably betting/raising/pushing whatever flop comes.

You really really really want to isolate here. I definitely put in another raise, and probably make it a push, even though your image here is tight and not bluffy, because this play is probably the only way you're going to get a loose call. Playing AA multiway, which i think is likely to happen if you cold call, significantly lowers your chance of winning the hand.

[zenbitz]

I think calling gives the best odds for tripling up, pushing the best for doubling up. Not really enough info to tell which is more +EV in toto.

If I was acting after you, I would be super paranoid if you just flat called this with an M of 13.5 (assuming you have been typically taggy).

Best is to be shoving a reasonably wide range here, so you will get some calls.

[LordVTR]

drmcboy wrote:

If he's weak post flop, the hands that won't call pre flop (AQ, 99-TT) don't hit much anyway, there is only one A left. I also assume this means you don't think he'll c-bet. This would be especially true in an (at least) three way pot where he's OOP and a tight player (you) has called from EP.

You have AA. Short of folding, there isn't really a bad play to make. Calling is OK. You just have to ask yourself if it's the best play. Given your stack size, you're charging everyone at the table 6500 to try and outrun your AA for the 32000 you have left. That isn't too bad, but it is a great price for them given most of the time they will play their hand pretty well against you - meaning you aren't going to stack 55 very much if ever, but it is stacking you about 1 in 8 times.

Nicely put sir! I find that its this level and depth of explanation/analysis from the experienced members on this forum that have really helped improve my game.

[jimmy44]

If you're so sure a push was never getting called, were you going to shove any two? If not, why not?

This is a good point! I must say that I didn't thought about this ...

3 % is JJ+, AK. 5% is 99+ and AQ+. So you get called by most of the hands in his range. Also, he raised a limper so I it seems more likely he's in the high end here.

My read here was that he would only call a push with QQ/KK/AA, taking in consideration that he raises 5% of the hands, he would fold the following hands: 99/TT/JJ/AQ/AQs/AK/AKs. I think we're losing value by shoving here. We could question that he would also call with AK+ and JJ also.
However, I agree that it was close and I now see also the push.

If he's weak post flop, the hands that won't call pre flop (AQ, 99-TT) don't hit much anyway, there is only one A left. I also assume this means you don't think he'll c-bet.
This would be especially true in an (at least) three way pot where he's OOP and a tight player (you) has called from EP.

I don't think the chances of Stalie c-betting was 0% even with the initial limper calls. Don't forget that the initial limper can still fold increasing the chances of Stalie c-betting.

You have AA. Short of folding, there isn't really a bad play to make. Calling is OK. You just have to ask yourself if it's the best play. Given your stack size, you're charging everyone at the table 6500 to try and outrun your AA for the 32000 you have left. That isn't too bad, but it is a great price for them given most of the time they will play their hand pretty well against you - meaning you aren't going to stack 55 very much if ever, but it is stacking you about 1 in 8 times.

I see your point, and indeed I think this applies to cash games, however, I think that in this kind of tourney situations where by doubling/trippling up you get a very good position that would allow you to put pressure on your oponents and accomulate chips to get deep in the tourney clearely compensates for the times you get stacked by 55. I am wrong thinking this way?

[Sprayed]

When I have a monster like AA late in a tourney, I'm not thinking about how to avoid being stacked. I'm trying to figure out what the best play is to double up. I think that you are making his range too small for him to call your push. He reraised an early limper, therefore making it obvious that he has a hand that he is confident in and is whiling to risk a lot of chips. An over push would not look like QQ+ to him and I would think that he would call with TT+ (maybe 99) and AK (maybe AQ). If I was him, I would have your range as 99-JJ, and AQ+.

[drmcboy]

Sure, you need to take a risks to get a big stack sometimes. You act like calling guarantees you will stack QQ. What if it comes K98 hearts and he's all black? You just saved him 30k . Pushing will sometimes cost you a chance to double up. So will calling. And again, calling may get you a five way pot.

Most people think your calling range for him is too tight. If you think it's correct, fine, but for next time consider that no one else really thinks it's that small.

One thing I'll say for sure is the idea that UTG-1 has a hand he wants to limp with, but doesn't want to call 5k more getting huge pot odds really doesn't make any sense. If you call, you have to assume the pot is three way.

[jimmy44]

Thanks for the help guys!

drmc and sprayed, I see that the range I had on opp was too tight and that a push from me would not look like QQ+ which might get a call from AQ+ and maybe JJ+. Plus it would avoid the possible multiple way pot ...