Is this to tight/weak.

[fdnypoker]

Did I play this hand to weak/tight. At 10x BB at the start of hand and I'm UTG. BB is solid. Should I be pushing this hand pre flop? C-betting the flop? There is another small stack and we're on the bubble. What is the optimum play in these situations?

Looking back my 600 raise left me at 7x BB. Is that a leak? Should I be folding or moving all in at this point?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1975)
SB (t3940)
BB (t5585)
Hero (t2000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, J.
Hero raises to t600, 2 folds, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) 8, 6, Q (2 players)
BB bets t800, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2100

[taipan168]

Easy fold preflop. You are on the bubble with the big stack in the BB, and as you say with 10x BB you should be shoving or folding preflop and KJo is a definite don't push from UTG on the bubble. Standard raising sucks here because you are too short to c-bet the flop if you miss without committing yourself.

As played, of course you have to fold the flop.

[Random_Hero]

Can someone tell me if I worked this out correctly. Done it through an ICM calc. have been doing some manual calculations and I done one for this hand.

If you fold pre flop your tourney EV is 0.18%

If you shove (lets say Button and SB fold) and BB calls.
If you win showdown your tourney EV is - 0.28%
If you lose showdown your tourney EV is - 0.00%

say we put BB on 88+, AJs+, AQo+

Hand 0: 32.00% { KhJd }
Hand 1: 68.021% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So 32% of the time you'll have 28% EV
And 68% of the time you'll have 0% EV

(0.32*0.28)+(0.68*0.00) = 0.0896

So we get a calling EV of 0.089% and a folding EV of 0.18% so its a clear clear FOLD!!

was that right? Just wanna know if I have the jist of it lol

[fdnypoker]

Thanks Taipan....after my initial rise I figured it was a mistake. One of the many leaks I have to fix.

So we get a calling EV of 0.089% and a folding EV of 0.28% so its a clear clear FOLD!! [/]

I know making +EV decisions results in a long term winning perecntage. However....getting these figures....008 vs .28....is nearly impossible during the game.

I try to play position, stack size and hand strength. Is this less profitable than creating the EV off of a hand range that you put someone on? Is it the same sort of thing? I'm confused.

I get the feeling that you can plug in any sort of hand range to create a positive or negative EV for basically any playable hand. My goal is to learn how to put people on ranges and make the best play after that, My question is how do you get down to such small detailed %. Do you use a calculator during the game?

[Random_Hero]

edited the folding EV to 0.18% as originally put it in worng.

You can't work this out during a game unless your some sort of genius lol. It's basically what SNGPT and SNGWIZ do whe you review your HH after a game so that when you come up against the same thing later during a game you know what to do.

[TwoKicker]

Can someone tell me if I worked this out correctly. Done it through an ICM calc. have been doing some manual calculations and I done one for this hand.

If you fold pre flop your tourney EV is 0.18%

If you shove (lets say Button and SB fold) and BB calls.
If you win showdown your tourney EV is - 0.28%
If you lose showdown your tourney EV is - 0.00%

say we put BB on 88+, AJs+, AQo+

Hand 0: 32.00% { KhJd }
Hand 1: 68.021% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So 32% of the time you'll have 28% EV
And 68% of the time you'll have 0% EV

(0.32*0.28)+(0.68*0.00) = 0.0896

So we get a calling EV of 0.089% and a folding EV of 0.18% so its a clear clear FOLD!!

was that right? Just wanna know if I have the jist of it lol

What if you shove and take down the blinds?

[Random_Hero]

Yeah was doing some calcs on paper and I realised i'd forgot to add that cheers!!

take 2!!

If you fold pre flop your tourney EV is 0.18%
If you shove and everyone folds your Tourney EV is 0.20%

If you shove (lets say Button and SB fold) and BB calls.
If you win showdown your tourney EV is - 0.28%
If you lose showdown your tourney EV is - 0.00%

say we put BB on 88+, AJs+, AQo+ (Just as an example)

Hand 0: 32.00% { KhJd }
Hand 1: 68.021% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ } or 6% of hands, so 94% of the time they'll fold.

So 94% of the time you'll have 20% EV
And32% of the time you'll have 28% EV
And 68% of the time you'll have 0% EV

(0.94*0.20)+(0.32*0.28)+(0.68*0.00) = 0.2776

So we get a calling EV of 0.27% and a folding EV of 0.18%

This makes it a shove. I guess if we know 2 players will fold, as my example suggests, then a shove is correct.

Can someone confirm I done it correctly? cheers.

[taipan168]

Random,

a) you also need to take into account the times that Button and SB might reshove. This makes is tricky. Although they might only do this with monster hands (say TT+, AK) considering that big stack is in the BB, if they do you are pretty much crushed by their range

b) I think the big stack's calling range is wider than 88+, AJ/AQ+. Given he's the big stack, I think you might see 55+, A9+, KQ. How does the ICM work out if he calls wider?

[taipan168]

OK, I ran this through SNGPT. fdny, were there antes? It makes quite a difference and they don't come out in the converter.

Assume that big stack in the BB calls with 44+, A7+, KJ+ and Button and SB would reshove with 99+, AQ+.
- If Hero folds his stack is worth 18.7% of the prize pool
- If Hero shoves and does not get called his stack is worth 20.4% of the prize pool. This will happen 77% of the time. The other 23% of the time when he is called his stack is worth between 26-30% of the prize pool if he wins (because if Button calls and Hero wins Hero is ITM) but if he loses he is out. Blending all this together means the EV of calling is 18.1%

Therefore, shoving is -0.6% EV compared to folding. Of course this varies depending on the calling ranges you use for the three remaining opps but in general this one is a fold for me.

[Jack Sawyer]

Fold pre. Your chips are precious at this point.

Its either folding or pushing in these situations, but UTG KJo is not a fine pushing hand. You may get lucky, but its not adviced.
Push in D or SB position if folded to. Better chance at isolation IMO.

[JeffreyGB]

...This varies depending on the calling ranges you use for the three remaining opps...

I think this is actually key in this hand. It's fairly normal for me to push here if I'm against a pretty tight table. It's a pretty easy fold if they are going to play back much.

In a vacuum, on paper, it's a fold. But I think it's close enough that metagame and table dynamics can shift it either way.

[Random_Hero]

Random,

a) you also need to take into account the times that Button and SB might reshove. This makes is tricky. Although they might only do this with monster hands (say TT+, AK) considering that big stack is in the BB, if they do you are pretty much crushed by their range

b) I think the big stack's calling range is wider than 88+, AJ/AQ+. Given he's the big stack, I think you might see 55+, A9+, KQ. How does the ICM work out if he calls wider?

Ok cheers, Yeah was just doing it hypothetically. Just wanted to make sure I have the basic jist of how to manually work out the calculations.

Will do the calc if he calls wider later, have to go out in 10 minutes lol.

[LimpinAintEZ]

...This varies depending on the calling ranges you use for the three remaining opps...

I think this is actually key in this hand. It's fairly normal for me to push here if I'm against a pretty tight table. It's a pretty easy fold if they are going to play back much.

In a vacuum, on paper, it's a fold. But I think it's close enough that metagame and table dynamics can shift it either way.

this is the most important aspect of the hand, imo - If the table is sitting on monsters waiting for the bubble to drop out, I don't mind the push here - This is a fair hand, you are 4 handed - You gotta play some marginal hands to win these. If the table is loose and you are gonna get 2 callers then you can fold. I think as the short stack you gotta take the cornered animal approach - can't really raise just a bit, then hope to c-bet and win the pot - I think its better to pick a hand and go for it - also, unless they have a monster, pushing gives you a shot to see all 5 cards and win the race. Only a few hands have us crippled - if we run into those its just bad luck - but we gotta push some marginal spots and we gotta open up our game when we get down to 4 players...everyone is tightening up here, trying to make the money - but 1 1st will make up for 3 3rd places -

as played, fold the flop - depending on the table though, I might have strongly considered the push -

[Random_Hero]

Ok here it is worked out if calling range of the big stack is wider than oin the earlier "example"

If you fold pre flop your tourney EV is 0.18%
If you shove and everyone folds your Tourney EV is 0.20%

If you shove (lets say Button and SB fold) and BB calls.
If you win showdown your tourney EV is - 0.28%
If you lose showdown your tourney EV is - 0.00%

We put BB on 55+, A9+, KQ+

Hand 0: 34.950% { KhJd }
Hand 1: 65.050% { 55+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo } around 12% of hands so they fold 88% of the time.

So 88% of the time you'll have 20% EV
And32% of the time you'll have 28% EV
And 68% of the time you'll have 0% EV

(0.88*0.20)+(0.32*0.28)+(0.68*0.00) = 0.9456

So we get a shoving EV of 0.94% and a folding EV of 0.18% (If we know Btn and SB will fold).

sorry if I kinda hijacked the original post (lol). Just wantedto make sure I was woprking out the calculations right. cheers!!

[LimpinAintEZ]

so, im kinda dumb with the EV % thing...is a shoving EV of .94% a good number? or does that mean its not worth it to push the KJoff?

so is this a oft repeated joke? JKoff is known as the pee wee herman? I just heard that last week and thought it was pretty funny....

[Random_Hero]

In the calc I done above shoving is +0.76% EV (This figure is the difference between folding and shoving) compared to folding so its an easy shove in this instance.

In the calc Taipan done shoving is -0.6% EV compared to folding. So its a fold as you'll have more EV if you fold.