ICM worked example: call AI with AKo

[taipan168]

I thought that I would use this hand as a worked example of some ICM calculations. Before I do though, and the answer may be obvious, a few comments on what you would do here would be good.

Reads on SB: had been pretty tight overall, HUD stats at this point were something like 12/6. $27 turbo.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 (t2190)
CO (t2505)
Hero (t1515)
SB (t1530)
BB (t1405)
UTG (t325)
UTG+1 (t1215)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1305)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
6 folds, Hero raises to t150, SB raises to t1555, 1 fold, Hero ????

[Muzzard]

Hmm, it's a tricky one. I don't really play tournaments that much... well not online anyway. Here's my 2c worth. I dont really know much about ICM either

SB is tight
a)he either thinks you are on a steal and is restealing on wide range. Unless there's history I lean against this

b) He has AK/AQ/JJ+ maybe even TT

With that range its pretty much a coin flip unless you don't include AQo + TT

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 306353280 95172708.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 304659576 95172708.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 359277240 95413566.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 374539788 95413566.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.819% 28.08% 14.74% 173097708 90852480.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 57.181% 42.44% 14.74% 261626772 90852480.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

I don't think we need to call this so early on, at best its a 50/50 shot IMO

[Da GOAT]

i fold

[K2 the ArmA]

foldfoldofldfodlfodlfodf

[drmcboy]

Re stealing is so common in MTTs not I can't lay this down, but I don't play enough SNGs to know whether it carries over. Seems like this has to be pretty close to even cEV and $EV this early.

[Warpe]

too early to race, so fold

[taipan168]

OK, here's the ICM analysis. My gut feel is that I agree with drmcboy, it is close but a fold:

- If I fold I have 1365 chips worth 10.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3095 chips worth 21.1% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

Therefore, I need to be 49.3% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming SB shoves over with 88+, AQ+ then AKo is 48.3% to win against this range so it is a close fold. Interestingly, even if we open up SB's range a little to say 77+, AJ+ (say if SB thinks that Hero is stealing from the button) then Hero is 52% to win and should call.

[Sprayed]

OK, here's the ICM analysis. My gut feel is that I agree with drmcboy, it is close but a fold:

- If I fold I have 1365 chips worth 10.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3095 chips worth 21.1% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

Therefore, I need to be 49.3% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming SB shoves over with 88+, AQ+ then AKo is 48.3% to win against this range so it is a close fold. Interestingly, even if we open up SB's range a little to say 77+, AJ+ (say if SB thinks that Hero is stealing from the button) then Hero is 52% to win and should call.

tai, can you explain to me and everyone else how you come-up with your %s? Like, I know that you use an ICM calculator to get your %s for fold, win, and loose and then come-up with %s for ranges by using stove. But, the 49% is what throws me. What is the calculation for that number? Also, do we need to figure out the % for a tie?

Maybe if you broke it down as in a how to guide for each step would be helpful for everyone. Like step one, run the numbers in an ICM calculator to find out % of prize pull if you fold. Step two, then run the numbers for if win. Etc.

[taipan168]

OK, here's the ICM analysis. My gut feel is that I agree with drmcboy, it is close but a fold:

- If I fold I have 1365 chips worth 10.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3095 chips worth 21.1% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

Therefore, I need to be 49.3% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming SB shoves over with 88+, AQ+ then AKo is 48.3% to win against this range so it is a close fold. Interestingly, even if we open up SB's range a little to say 77+, AJ+ (say if SB thinks that Hero is stealing from the button) then Hero is 52% to win and should call.

tai, can you explain to me and everyone else how you come-up with your %s? Like, I know that you use an ICM calculator to get your %s for fold, win, and loose and then come-up with %s for ranges by using stove. But, the 49% is what throws me. What is the calculation for that number? Also, do we need to figure out the % for a tie?

OK, once SB shoves over, our two choices are call or fold. We know what our share of the prize pool is if we fold (10.4%), we know if we call and lose we are out (hence 0%) but if we call and win our share of the prize pool is 21.1%.

Therefore, we need to figure out what % of the time we need to win for calling to be better than folding. This % is (10.4%/21.1%) = 49.3%. Hope that cleared it up!

Maybe if you broke it down as in a how to guide for each step would be helpful for everyone. Like step one, run the numbers in an ICM calculator to find out % of prize pull if you fold. Step two, then run the numbers for if win. Etc.

I did break it down into a step by step guide, let me know if you think it is too obtuse: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=49674

[Sprayed]

OK, here's the ICM analysis. My gut feel is that I agree with drmcboy, it is close but a fold:

- If I fold I have 1365 chips worth 10.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3095 chips worth 21.1% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

Therefore, I need to be 49.3% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming SB shoves over with 88+, AQ+ then AKo is 48.3% to win against this range so it is a close fold. Interestingly, even if we open up SB's range a little to say 77+, AJ+ (say if SB thinks that Hero is stealing from the button) then Hero is 52% to win and should call.

tai, can you explain to me and everyone else how you come-up with your %s? Like, I know that you use an ICM calculator to get your %s for fold, win, and loose and then come-up with %s for ranges by using stove. But, the 49% is what throws me. What is the calculation for that number? Also, do we need to figure out the % for a tie?

OK, once SB shoves over, our two choices are call or fold. We know what our share of the prize pool is if we fold (10.4%), we know if we call and lose we are out (hence 0%) but if we call and win our share of the prize pool is 21.1%.

Therefore, we need to figure out what % of the time we need to win for calling to be better than folding. This % is (10.4%/21.1%) = 49.3%. Hope that cleared it up!

Maybe if you broke it down as in a how to guide for each step would be helpful for everyone. Like step one, run the numbers in an ICM calculator to find out % of prize pull if you fold. Step two, then run the numbers for if win. Etc.

I did break it down into a step by step guide, let me know if you think it is too obtuse: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=49674

I knew that. I was just testing you to see if you really knew what you were saying.

[TLR]

I call this anyday.

Most players will not shove AA/KK or even QQ at this spot, they would either smooth call you or minraise, raise to 500-600.
I think the most likely range you will see is something like 22-JJ,AT-AK, and you are ahead of this range

[swiggidy]

I never saw your original ICM how-to Taipan. I just skimmed it, but it looks good. The "problem" I see is that the people who care will generally buy SNGPowerTools or whatever, and the people who won't are too lazy to do the calculations.

[Black Sheep]

This is a def fold from me, dont wanna risk the sng on AK this early. And a comment to what TLR said, yes most people would just smooth call with like AA-KK, but i tend to see more and more people that tends to push over with those cards to maybe represent other hands but most of the times just plays the hand wrong...Anyways, must say that this is a very interesting post, thx and the icm-post you made must have slipped through my eyes :P

[bbqsquirrel]

So if we raise with a powerhouse hand like AK and yet can't profitably call a push, could we instead limp the hand intenting to reraise all-in if somebody raises preflop?

If the pot gets limped around, these can happen:
1) We miss we only lose 1 BB instead of 3.
2) We hit TPTK or better, our hand will be underrepresented -- with a low M people will go broke with outkicked TP.
3) We hit TP but somebody else setted, we go broke. Same thing could have happened even if we raise preflop.
4) We allow BB to hit a miracle flop like 2-pairs when we have TPTK. This just doesn't happen often enough.

If someone raises, we reraise AI, and it will be their turn to think "at best I'm in a race, it's too early to race, I fold".

[Sprayed]

I did break it down into a step by step guide, let me know if you think it is too obtuse: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=49674

For some reason, the link to comment in the above guide doesn't work. Your formula:

3. % of time Hero needs to win to make calling (taking into account the possibility of both winning and losing) worth at least the same % of the prize pool as folding:

24.2% = (x * 36.1%) + ((1-x) * 12.1%) where x = probability of winning

Solving for x (if you suck at algebra because like me you haven’t done it for 15+ years, you can use goal seek in Excel to solve this), x = 50.4% so Hero needs to be at least 50.4% to win against Villain’s likely range to make this call +EV.

Go here to solve algebra formulas:
Sovling Algebra Formulas

[taipan168]

Thanks Sprayed, I fixed the link in the original post, it works now. Thanks also for the link to the algebra calculator, if you plug it in without the percentages it works.