How's my bet sizing on this hand? (50NL)

[taipan168]

No real reads, opp just joined the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($30.15)
SB ($90.40)
BB ($48.75)
UTG ($13.90)
UTG+1 ($60.60)
Hero ($79)
MP2 ($26.05)
MP3 ($54.55)
CO ($25.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 9, 2, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4.

Turn: ($12.25) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10.

River: ($32.25) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20

[ShowMeAtlas]

If he''s going to call big bets then by all means bet the shite of it! nh

EDIT: What would you have done if he had CRAI on the turn?

[Miffed22001]

If he''s going to call big bets then by all means bet the shite of it! nh

EDIT: What would you have done if he had CRAI on the turn?

turn is an easy fold if he does that.

i like this, he looks you up lot with tp on the turn more than he has a flush IMO.

[zook]

I take a chance and push river. He has pot behind and could easily look you up with a worse flush.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

I take a chance and push river. He has pot behind and could easily look you up with a worse flush.

I agree with this. If he will call anything more than a small value bet on the river, i think you gain value by pushing this river as opposed to a 2/3 PSB.

(EV Analysis...)
Assume villan has TP or a flush, K or Q-J high) The flush hands make up 50% of his range, TP makes up the other 50%.

Villan will call 1/5PSB 100% (never folding a hand he called with on the turn)
Villan will call 2/3PSB 75% (never fold flushes, sometimes fold TP. This % may actually be a little high)
Villan will call PSB 50% (he will sometimes fold his Q-J high flush, but sometimes Hero call with TP)

$6 x 1 = $6
$20 x .75 =$15
$32 x .5 = $16


Even though the %'s are approximate, 2/3PSB vs AI is close. However it is likely that pushing AI is even more +EV since the likelihood of villan calling 2/3PSB with a hand like TP is probably less than 50%, the % i used for my rough EV calculation.