Hand reading exercise: QQ 2nd hand

[taipan168]

This is second hand of a $27 turbo and I have no prior reads. I think that how I should play is obvious, so I thought I'd turn this into an exercise in reading opp's hand range.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t1500)
Button (t1280)
SB (t1720)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
UTG raises to t80 1. What do we put opp on at this point?

4 folds, Hero raises to t240, 3 folds, UTG calls t160. 2. What do we think opp has that would raise UTG and just call a re-raise?

Flop: (t510) 2, 4, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks 3. Opp calls a raise and checks the flop. Can we narrow our range?

Hero bets t400, UTG calls t400. 4. Check/call a relatively draw-free (considering preflop action) flop, what does he have?

Turn: (t1310) T (2 players)
UTG checks 5. Check turn. Any guesses?

Hero bets t860 (All-In), UTG calls t860 (All-In). 6. So what does he have?

[bjsaust]

I'll apply this per my level which could be a fair bit different:


1. Very wide range. Ax, any two broadway, suited connectors, middle and high pocket pairs. Perhaps low PP, but unlikely.

2. At this point we can rule out AA, KK. Most opps would push them now. AK, AQ, probably AJ and AT. Mid pocket pairs (even without odds they still play them).

3. I dont think so. Checking could be a slowplay, complete miss, or just seeing what you'll do. You were the PF aggressor so checking isnt unusual here.

4. This is strange though. I'd usually expect a push here if he hit big, but as you say, no real draw. At this point I put him on AK, AQ, AJ, AT. He's got a straight draw and 2 overs.

5. At best he hit an over and is slowplaying it, at worst he missed and is still waiting for outs.


Our big concerns from the flop on are that he's a donkey who called your 3-bet with A5, or that he had low PP and hit his set. At my levels hands like that calling 3 bets early (and raising low PP from EP) arent as unusual as they should be.

[|~|ypermegachi]

1. AT+, 88+ something like that. i don't think they're that loose at this level.
2. at least AQ....probably all pairs.
3. not really, all his hands could play the same. mid pairs don't wanna get aggressive just in case you have an overpair. if he's got overcards he's unlikely to bet into you.
4. well, same hands really. pairs still call that bet. A definitely calls for the straight.
5. he wants to see the river cheaply or showdown cheaply. take your pick.

[taipan168]

OK, I added one more stage when he called my (pretty obvious) shove on the turn.

[bjsaust]

I'm starting to think maybe JJ or even the other 2 Qs.

[dsaxton]

My experience with players at this level is that they are very loose and bad, but given his normal raise size (rather than a minraise, or raise to like 160), I'm guessing he's one of the more sane players at these tables, but this is obviously guessing.

Assuming he is a normal person, his range after opening UTG then calling a reraise is approximately A-K, Q-Q, J-J and T-T (with a small chance of 9-9). The likelihood of Q-Q can be heavily discounted since there are only two left in the deck.

Once he check-calls 400 on the flop, A-K can be ruled out almost completely, so he most likely has J-J or T-T. Once the T falls, he probably has J-J, with some chance that he turned a set of T's. When he calls all-in on the turn, it's a matter of reads as to whether or not this increases the chance that he has a set of T's, as some players would usually fold a pair of J's at this point. My guess is that he has J-J about 60% of the time, T-T 30%, and A-K of hearts, Q-Q or 9-9 around 10%.

[gingerwizard]

1. Any two high cards or a pair. Without a read and considering it is the second hand, this could be one of the loss chasing donkeys. I'm more inclined to say {99+,AJ+,KQ} for a sensible player.

2. {QQ,JJ,TT,99, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ}. (The chasing donkey has more) Bit too advanced flat calling with a premium AA or KK in a sit and go. (Can be nice play deep stacked though)

3. Not yet, because since you have the lead most thinking opps would check to you on this flop and wait to see what you do.

4. Now we narrow. {QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AK}. The Ak maybe suited. I include AK as some people don't want to get rid of it, but i put a lot less likelihood on it. I'm almost sure he has an over pair to the board and that yours is at least as good (probably better).

5. Check still indicates he wants a showdown and has an overpair. If he had TT he has hit the perfect turn. I check behind here also hoping for a cheaper showdown with my better overpair. If he shoves the river I may cry and call or I may fold.

6. Well TT is the obvious but I think JJ may also play this way (incoreectly). 99 gives up on the turn.

Nice exercise.

[fdnypoker]

Nice exercise.....here are my thoughts before reading what others have to say.

Pre flop - UTG raise to 4x BB could be 10-10+ or AK. Don't think anything smaller than 10-10 would raise UTG. Even JJ is questionable to me.

Opp calling your pre flop raise - Still could be AKs, JJ, QQ (probably not) KK or AA. I discount AA or KK as they would most likely push here AI.

Opp's check/call of 400 - not knowing if opp is tricky or a donk....I would narrow down to an overpair to the board. JJ - QQ. Still don't think they call pre flop with 10-10 or less. Opp could be trapping with a made set.

Opps check on turn and calling your AI - Check on the turn stinks of weakness. However the way opp check/called the flop makes me wonder if they are slow playing a set. JJ still seems very likely.

[fdnypoker]

Tai, I'm losing sleep waiting to find out what opp played.

[taipan168]

Tai, I'm losing sleep waiting to find out what opp played.

Results in white below:
He had TT.

[fdnypoker]

If I was opp I'm out of the hand on your 400 bet. Would that be a weak fold with 10-10. I have to put you on over pair. Seems like Opp donked you on the turn.

[taipan168]

If I was opp I'm out of the hand on your 400 bet. Would that be a weak fold with 10-10. I have to put you on over pair. Seems like Opp donked you on the turn.

Even his preflop call was a bit iffy. He's in a tough spot on the flop. I could be c-betting a missed AK (16 potential hands) or value betting a legitimate overpair to his TT (24 potential hands). If I was him I think I would just dump it.

Opp could have avoided this difficult spot on the flop by limping preflop, flat calling my raise and letting the hand go to my bet when he didn't hit his set on the flop.