Exampe of a trouble spot

[bjsaust]

I briefly discussed this with Taipan last night on msn, then I just got this example of it now and thought I'd post for discussion.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 8.
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 calls t20, 1 fold, MP3 calls t20, CO calls t20, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t130) 7, 9, 6 (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t60, UTG+1 raises to t120, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls t120, Hero ???


So I've got middle pair and an OESD. I have 31% chance of hitting my straight by the river. Pot is 370 and I need to call 120, especially since I figure theres a good chance UTG also calls I'm getting odds to chase this. However, if I dont hit on the turn, theres certain to be another bet to call there. Even if somehow I get pot odds for that (17.4%), I've already put in 120 voluntarily (140 inc BB), so even if the turn is only 100 chips which would be very low, if I call I've put in somewhere around 200-250 chips on a draw. Sure if it hits, then I'm set to coast to the bubble, but most times it wont, and I'm down 20% of my chips with middle pair.

[TLR]

you also have low pair, I think I call here, any 7,5,10 is a good card for you

[taipan168]

I agree with TLR, I'd call and see what happens on the turn. If you have to fold the turn you still have 1360 chips behind which is plenty this early.