Call or not?

[nickthefool]

$5 rebuy on stars, on the bubble (420ish left, 396 paid)

POKERSTARS GAME #10504359947: TOURNAMENT #52923325, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XI (600/1200) - 2007/06/18 - 20:56:35 (ET)
Table '52923325 27' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Leeson Wang (31970 in chips)
Seat 2: JuanchoR (28248 in chips)
Seat 3: 1SAGE1U (49987 in chips)
Seat 4: nickthefool (31592 in chips)
Seat 5: vo2max (4150 in chips)
Seat 6: altet6 (12124 in chips)
Seat 7: t2rodz (46735 in chips)
Seat 8: mr two four (14473 in chips)
Seat 9: maroso (20815 in chips)
Leeson Wang: posts the ante 75
JuanchoR: posts the ante 75
1SAGE1U: posts the ante 75
nickthefool: posts the ante 75
vo2max: posts the ante 75
altet6: posts the ante 75
t2rodz: posts the ante 75
mr two four: posts the ante 75
maroso: posts the ante 75
t2rodz: posts small blind 600
mr two four: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nickthefool [Ah Qs]
maroso: folds
Leeson Wang: calls 1200
JuanchoR: calls 1200
1SAGE1U: calls 1200
nickthefool: raises 4800 to 6000
vo2max: folds
altet6: folds
t2rodz: folds
mr two four: folds
Leeson Wang: raises 25895 to 31895 and is all-in
JuanchoR: folds
1SAGE1U: folds
nickthefool: ??????

I'm almost certain leeson wang has a low pocket pair here, or possibly AJ. He was a very loose player and preflop raised anything half decent, and had a massive limp/calling range. I've seen him raise with AA and KK preflop and get paid off both times, so i think it's very unlikely he would go for a limp/push with a monster, personally i think i'm giving him too much credit even thinking he might do this.

So, his range for me is something like 88-22 i think, which makes me 46% to win the hand, according to PokerStove.

I'm calling 25517 if i make the call to win 67909, giving me 37.5% pot odds. Does this mean i have to call as it's fairly +EV chip wise?

[Muzzard]

Personally I think this looks like AA/KK with a UTG+1 limp reraise. Thats said, if you think its 22-88 do you really want to be flipping in this spot near the bubble? You have to consider that this could be AA/KK or even AK some percentage of the time.

Don't you think his pushing range here is fairly tight, given that:
a) He limp/pushed
b) Close to the bubble

If you've seen him limp/push in EP before with lesser hands, then call. But without any information suggesting this, I'd fold here. If you're still fairly certain that this is a PP 22-88 its an easy call given the pot odds.

[nickthefool]

Thats said, if you think its 22-88 do you really want to be flipping in this spot near the bubble?

That essentially is the question i would like opinions on.

You have to consider that this could be AA/KK or even AK some percentage of the time.

I'll concede that it could be AA/KK/AK some of the time, but it could also be AJ/AT/KQ some of the time from this player, so they probably balance out.

[Muzzard]

He was a very loose player and preflop raised anything half decent, and had a massive limp/calling range.

His limping/calling range may be wide, but have you seen him limp/rerasie any hands?

As for flipping close to the bubble, I think you could find a better spot to take this guy on. You're not short stacked and IMO I don't think you have the best hand here, limp/RR stinks of a high pocket which has you crushed.

Yes, you should play to win, but you've also got to protect the stack you have. You're going busto if you don't hit the coinflip you think it is - but you got the right pot odds - and your drawing thin to the hands I think it is.

Most players will be tightening up at this stage due to the $$, he knows this and you know this. So he knows that your raising range is going to be fairly tight. I don't think he is capable of levelling you.

[chardrian]

He might have a massive limp/calling range, but he isn't limp/calling here. He's limp/pushing and that's a huge difference.

Guessing he "might" do this w/ AJ isn't enough for me here, you need to have hands like AT and A9s in his range for this to be a good call. Otherwise you are hoping for a flip when you have enough chips that you don't need to hope for anything.

[dstir2]

when it comes to tourneys you really have to throw out the pot odds when calling an a.i. with this size of a stack. survival is key, so even if you have him on a lower pair such as 22-88 like you suggested, to call a limp/re-raise a.i. with aq isn't justified. the best scenario, again is if he did this with aj or at. but with all of the other possible hands he could have that would be a preflop fav against you, this is an easy fold.

[nickthefool]

Okay, forget about the read, i know it's a debating point but it's not what i'm looking for advice about. I put him on 88-22 before i made the call, he had 22. Now,

Given that he has 22, and pot odds are 37.5% with 47.7% equity, is it right to call or not, and why? I had a discussion with a couple of my live poker playing friends on this and we were split over whether you should call as it gives you a much better chance to go deep in the tournament and the money is centred around the final table, or you should fold, with reasons similar to what dstir gave, basically just to survive.

[drmcboy]

if he shows you 22, you should call.

[chardrian]

If he flips over 22 and you then have to decide whether to call or not, it's a pretty easy call with all that dead money.

Waiting for a "better opportunity" is usually a crock. You don't get many opportunites where you are positive that the pot is laying you correct odds - when you do you take them. Here, you have basically a 50% shot to more than double up (by the time you have to call the all-in it is putting in somewhere around 26k to win somewhere over 66k). You need these chips if you want to get to the FT.