Bubble, 22 on button ($27)

[taipan168]

SB has been pretty tight, overall stats 14/6. That said, he has seen me shove my 72o when I was the big stack 5-handed into his BB (he called with A3s). BB started out very loose but tightened up as blinds increased.

According to SNGPT, if SB calls with 44+, A7+, KJ+ and BB calls with 66+, AT+ this is +0.3% EV. That said, do YOU shove this?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400 (Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2637
Hero: t3010
SB: t4843
BB: t3010

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 2 2
UTG folds, Hero raises all-in t2985

[Fortune 500]

I don't like shoving here. While the blinds are high, 22 is a hand where you're always going to get 50/50 or worse, unless you trap an A2.

That said, I can see an argument for shoving here. We're certainly not going to open limp, and we do have a pair...

On balance, I actually lean towards a fold, but it's real, real close. In low M situations, I feel that small pairs go down in value, because of the lost ability to limp them and the lack of implied odds.

Like I said, I probably look for a marginally better spot, but I can see an argument either way.

[cag8f]

If SNGPT says it is +EV, then I am taking it and pushing it, especially since I might put SB on a *slightly* tighter range (even though he already saw you push with rags). The real question is if I can make the right decision on the fly without the benefit of SNGPT's numbers. Before I knew the numbers, I would tend to think that pushing any PP there is +EV.

[Random_Hero]

The SB has seen you shove with 7-2o plus he called with a marginal hand. This points me towards a fold here.

If this hadn't have happened then I'm shoving this.

[bjsaust]

I was railing this. Not only had taipan been caught pushing 72o (was in a fair spot for it, but most wouldnt realise that), but he'd also pushed from the button for the last 4 or 5 rounds I think. SB was taking longer each time to fold, suggesting he wanted to look Tai up. That said the last time Taipan got looked up he had pocket 9s I think.

My comment was a fold for image, but SngPT says push and you're almost certainly slightly on the right side of a coinflip. Theres probably not a wrong move here.

[Sprayed]

Image is important. But, I push this.

[Da GOAT]

as a side when i played before there are alot of spots where thinking ''I have a PP and my M is low therefore it must be a shove'' is in fact slightly -EV especially form 22-66. Cant think of an example but i remember mentioning it to tai last time i railed him MONTHS ago or even late last year lol

i think i push here, also tai i dont think KJ should be in the range. KQ yeah sure but alot of tight players dont have the balls to call with KJ

[bjsaust]

I've run into this a few times lately. I have 55 from mid position 5 handed and an M of 5 so I shove and get called and lose, run the hand through SngPT and it tells me it was -EV.

[Da GOAT]

I've run into this a few times lately. I have 55 from mid position 5 handed and an M of 5 so I shove and get called and lose, run the hand through SngPT and it tells me it was -EV.

exactly, there are some low PPs where you can assume that its +EV and then not go check it in SNGPT later which are in fact -EV. Of course this only works if you are happy with your ranges

[badgers]

I'm suprised this is a shove into 2 big stacks as so many of the hands that call dominate us completely. I would have folded before I read this thread anyway.

[Sprayed]

They're not that big. You can cripple sb and bust bb. They have to have a fairly decent hand to call. 22 is ahead all unpaired hands.