KK, deep and its lookin to be big

[griffey24]

-villain is 38/11 and I've seen him make a few weird calls, but uusually on earlier streets
-edit: should I just push this river?.. check -raise? .. I really had no clue what he could have on the turn to call my check raise, given that I have top set.


Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $178.84
Hero: $744.03
Button: $425.20
SB: $163.70
BB: $129.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with
UTG calls, Hero raises to $8, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: ($27, 3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $17, Button calls, UTG folds.

Turn: ($61, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $26, Hero raises to $89, Button calls after thinking a while

River: ($239, 2 players)
Hero ??

[|~|ypermegachi]

i'm a fan of pushing here.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

i'm a fan of pushing here.

why? what worse hands call?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Well, it looks to me that he has something like two pair, a heart flush draw, or some kind of combo draw (pair and flush draw, straight and flush draw). Set is possible. He also seems like he doesn't like his two pair if he does have it.

I like a value bet. I'd make it small enough that a set will want to raise and a missed draw may bluff (pretty unlikely that will happen though). So i'd make it around 100.

[griffey24]

I like a value bet. I'd make it small enough that a set will want to raise and a missed draw may bluff (pretty unlikely that will happen though). So i'd make it around 100.

I'm assuming we are making a value bet, with the intention of pushing over any raise right?

[mixchange]

Yeah, I don't think you can worry about the backdoor flush. $120 value and call/push the rest if possible.

[noble007]

I make a bet of about a 100 and call a raise.
But I wouldn't push over his raise, once he raises, (as you guys are pretty deep) you gotta ask what he called on the turn with and what he wants to raise with on the river besides lower set that you beat. (I doubt he's raising 2pr)
I think long term its worth calling his raise but not pushingif theres still what like a 100-15o left behind for him?

(I think he would have pushed lower set on turn on that board.)

[griffey24]

i'm a fan of pushing here.

I actually ended up doing this. I open pushed, since I felt like his slow turn decision and eventual call felt like he had something that he wanted to take to the end.

As it turns out, he had Q9 clubs.. uggggh... stupid open push. He would have pushed over my value lead anyhow, I just wanted to make sure that everyone is fine stacking on this river, this deep, as played.

[|~|ypermegachi]

i'm a fan of pushing here.

why? what worse hands call?

cuz over pushes always look stupid to the opponent and i think they call wider.

[zook]

c-bet and 2nd barrel closer to pot, river c/r AI probably. I'm fine with stacking off here, so hard to put him on the backdoor draw.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

i'm a fan of pushing here.

why? what worse hands call?

cuz over pushes always look stupid to the opponent and i think they call wider.

In regards to this hand I disagree. His hand is far more likely a draw and I think c/c is the best play. It's very hard for him to have Kings up since we have a set of Kings and he would've played a set faster. He's not calling this river push with a hand we beat, ever.

I hope this doesnt come off to results oriented but this is exactly why I asked my question in the first place, yes I really c/c this river.

[Genitruc]

sick as it may seem I'd bet 150$ and fold to a push

edit : don t wanna be results-oriented... hadn't read replies yet.

[nutsinho]

135, fold to a raise. His flop call is definitely meh but not horrible considering how deep you are. No way he calls a shove with a worse hand. The fact that you each have to be concerned with the other having something like 8h9h brings your hand value down to the point where an overbet shove this deep is -EV.

[mixchange]

I think backdoor flushes get paid when you have top set--It's just too nitty to me otherwise... but this board after further analysis it's much harder to put villain on a range that would go AI on river. The only hands I can see are set over set, straight, backdoor flush, maybe K10 but you'd expect more flop/turn aggression from 2p. The story he's telling on the turn seems to be I'm drawing, but he played this hand so badly it's a bit deceptive. We don't put him on suited clubs on flop, because what is he drawing to to call flop? He'd have made it there on turn if he was.

I don't fault calling the push with top set. The only thing I could think of changing is the flop bet could have been stronger with draws out there, but it sucks to flop top set and blow people out of the water... you have to think though that if you have top set with 10 and a 6 on a board that villain is most likely drawing if he's not raising and is just calling. Anyway, just a sick kind of hand that I wouldn't dwell on. I think folding to the push is too nitty, even though I have trouble putting villain on a range on river that goes AI that we beat. But because he played it so badly, his hand is disguised and he's rewarded.


to you nits who fold on river with top set, is this a regular kind of laydown for you on a board like this?

[Genitruc]

I think backdoor flushes get paid when you have top set--It's just too nitty to me otherwise... but this board after further analysis it's much harder to put villain on a range that would go AI on river. The only hands I can see are set over set, straight, backdoor flush, maybe K10 but you'd expect more flop/turn aggression from 2p. The story he's telling on the turn seems to be I'm drawing, but he played this hand so badly it's a bit deceptive. We don't put him on suited clubs on flop, because what is he drawing to to call flop? He'd have made it there on turn if he was.

I don't fault calling the push with top set. The only thing I could think of changing is the flop bet could have been stronger with draws out there, but it sucks to flop top set and blow people out of the water... you have to think though that if you have top set with 10 and a 6 on a board that villain is most likely drawing if he's not raising and is just calling. Anyway, just a sick kind of hand that I wouldn't dwell on. I think folding to the push is too nitty, even though I have trouble putting villain on a range on river that goes AI that we beat. But because he played it so badly, his hand is disguised and he's rewarded.


to you nits who fold on river with top set, is this a regular kind of laydown for you on a board like this?

this deep against a loosy-passive villain who's unlikely to raise when 89 is in both of our ranges and after the long timing-tell on the turn which suggests his hand is "funky" then I think it's very doable to fold top set this deep.

It's not zomg standard or anything but this seems like a situation where you'll almost never get bluffed and always be looking at 89 or a flush if villain shoves over your bet.

edit : btw I think villain played his hand great

[sauce123]

I c/r shove here i think

[mixchange]

yeah, I definitely see the read on the river, its just soooo hard to lay down top set here. But maybe this is the kind of sick laydown I need to learn to make to get a lot better? I dunno. Usually people get berated for folding top set in this spot.

how do you think villian played his hand well? On the flop, just calling with a gutshot and a backdoor draw seems like an odd play. I'd want to raise or fold. Besides a jack, the 7 of clubs is the best card possible for villain. If villain blanks turn, how does his play then look?

As played on turn, villain is 70-30% dog with a lot of money going in...even if we only have AK here he's a 65/35 dog. He can't necessarily know he is going up against a set so it's hard to calculate implied odds. Are you saying he can usually expect that kind of implied odds (without knowing hero necessarily has a set) to pay $115 to get to the river?

[Genitruc]

yeah, I definitely see the read on the river, its just soooo hard to lay down top set here. But maybe this is the kind of sick laydown I need to learn to make to get a lot better? I dunno. Usually people get berated for folding top set in this spot.

how do you think villian played his hand well? On the flop, just calling with a gutshot and a backdoor draw seems like an odd play. I'd want to raise or fold. Besides a jack, the 7 of clubs is the best card possible for villain. If villain blanks turn, how does his play then look?

As played on turn, villain is 70-30% dog with a lot of money going in...even if we only have AK here he's a 65/35 dog. He can't necessarily know he is going up against a set so it's hard to calculate implied odds. Are you saying he can usually expect that kind of implied odds (without knowing hero necessarily has a set) to pay $115 to get to the river?

villain's flop call is good because thinking players (like Hero in OP) will have a tough time putting him on running flush or a str8 is he hits his gutter. This is one of the keys to winning huge pots deepstacked vs good players.

The other reason I like villain's line is that after being CR with so much money behind, he can be pretty sure that Hero will be firing the river. So when he hits his 12 outer 1/4 times, he'll be making a shit ton of $$$ by calling the 63$ turn raise and will often be in a spot to bust Hero if his river bet commits him.

[Genitruc]

also I think it's important to not think of this hand in a bubble where "villain pays 115$ to get to river"

he did a few things in sequence that were pretty +ev in and of themselves if he's at all competent postflop (starting with the flop float).

[sauce123]

yea villain played his hand fine

also, 115 call shove is a perfectly good line

[Alexos]

I would also bet/fold here, this is not 600nl on Stars, these guys will not raise us with worse on river. But they like to call with worse, thus the b/f instead of c/c. Open push is one of the worst options i think.

Something between 100-125

[mixchange]

villain's flop call is good because thinking players (like Hero in OP) will have a tough time putting him on running flush or a str8 is he hits his gutter. This is one of the keys to winning huge pots deepstacked vs good players.

I'm really confused now and genuinely want to get this. On the flop, you are advocating as a plan to hit a gutshot straight or running flush cards when we are 82-17 vs. set and 77-22 vs. AK?

I see other good players in this thread also agreeing with this line by villain... I guess I'm really missing something important here

[sauce123]

mixchange- we make a cbet which means our range is similar to our preflop range which is wide and villain intends to bluff on the turn or river if he doesnt hit given that we will have to put him on some kind of pair often enough to fold all underpairs and A high

[bigspenda73]

It's the implied odds of the situation. If villain believes we will stack off to his hidden gutshot then he could call on the flop getting 1:1 odds if we were deep enough.

However, villain's call is bad for the fact that most of the time we will miss this board (especially since our range opening in the CO is huge) and not be able to pay off his gutshot. He needs to win about $125 (prolly wrong did it quick in my head) every time to make the call profitable.

Throw in the times he can take the pot away from us and I guess his call is not that bad. However, him being passive I doubt he was floating.

[mixchange]

ok, so let me get this straight from villain's perspective --

- Hero may be cbetting, so we call thinking he may check to us on turn, or way may luckbox. Rather than spending the money to r/r the flop, we get to see a free card.

- If Hero checks, we can fire a cbet -- but do we only fire a cbet if turn helps us, or do we fire a cbet regardless if checked to? I'm guessing we only fire if turn helped us.

- If hero bets, we can only call if our draw improved.


?

Villain's turn play makes more sense, albeit expensive. The flop just looks like total crap for villain. Do you guys call flops a lot to steal on turns?
I've just never heard of calling with a gutshot and a backdoor straight draw as a good implied odds situation. But I am trying to learn from better players here, just confused

[griffey24]

I'm not really sure if villain did a good job of floating here (though, I don't think thats what he was really doing anyhow).

IF he was floating, certainly his weak ass turn bet wasn't gonna accomplish much I wouldn't think.

But I agree with most posts that perhaps I should have just lead a weaker bet of $100ish. Though I'm not too confident in my ability to fold to a river push here in this spot, with this strong a hand.. but thats another issue entirely

[benny999]

i've seen donkish players turn random stuff into bluffs a bunch of times. not often this deep, but bet-fold would be tough for sure...

mixchange - floating is def a good move for the "arsenal". i do it some (need to learn it better too), but sounds to me like u got the gist of it.

[sauce123]

dude its not rly floating if u have a gutshot- pretty much no strong players fold to a cbet from the PFR if they hit anything ever.

and u bet or check turn based on board texture and image factors mostly.

consider what ur repping- one of the benefits to being able to value bet mid pair on 2 streets is that we can more easily represent a medium strength hand with the call/check/bet line which gets our opponent to fold just about anything besides top pair played weird when the turn goes check/check

[Genitruc]

this is a really good discussion

because of description of villain I'd tend to think he played his hand well because of his fishiness (and would have played it particularly fishily had we been 100bb's deep or even less). so i don't mean to say villain is awesome or anything...

but

When you're playing a solid player deepstacked in position, I think it's a great thing to call a wide variety of flops with the intention of using your stack as leverage on later streets since most solid players aren't looking to get into marginal deepstacked confrontations with semi-strong hands. so I think calling this flop should be absolutely standard (and also calling this flop sometimes with an overpair, sometimes with tptk etc...).