KK on bubble against big stack, shorty sitting out ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats 33/8 over 46 hands. Shoving over is obviously +EV with KK, even with the player sitting out. That said, given Ax is well within opp's range, am I ever better off just flat calling the re-raise and betting a non-A flop?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t75/t150
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1990
Hero: t3435
SB: t1235 (note: sitting out)
BB: t6840

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K K
UTG folds, Hero raises to t450, SB folds, BB raises to t750, Hero raises all-in t3435. Or would flat calling be better?

[kstarm]

I think it depends a little on the opponent. If he is a thinker he would be understanding the situation and realizing your range has to be extremely tight. What would you be willing to risk your tournament life on with shortie sitting out? Thus your FE is high and you have a good chance of taking this down pre-flop. If he calls with Ax or a lower pp you are in great shape to double up and be in command to win the SNG. If he flips over AA then you just say to the powers that be that you are sorry for punching that girl in elementary school and that everything is now even.

I think with this hand you can reasonably argue that AI pre-flop is worth the risk for a good chance at 1st which is where we make the biggest difference to our ROI and bankroll and that your FE is so high.

The only reason I like flat calling is that you will be in position and can decide after he acts what you would like to do. I think letting the opponent see a flop is a little risky as well when your FE is so high.

[FlyingSaucy]

I like getting it all in here as opposed to flat calling. Unless BB is an idiot, he will have noticed that you are a solid player and you would not risk your stack on the bubble without a rock solid hand, AA or KK. I can't imagine he will call with anything other than the same.

[Zee Devee]

Even though he has tight stats, I would put opp on a pretty loose range here if he understands the situation that you must be very tight and he probably has a lot of fold equity.

I really don't think it matters much if opp understands the situation, because if you put anymore money in the pot opp should be folding unless he does have a great hand here.

I am leaning toward a push here to take the pot right now because you cannot be sure your hand is good if the flop comes all unders. Either you will not make anymore money or you will lose a lot.

[Da GOAT]

no brainer IMHO, double up then PWN bubble BIG TIME.

[bjsaust]

I fold, he almost certainly has AJ and calls your push and makes a straight.

Umm, I mean I'm always happy when I can get KK in PF.

[mukaka]

I think pushing is better since he won't fold if he catches a piece of the flop, but he might fold against your push and if he doesn't you're only afraid of AA and when you win you have a great advantage to become first.

[Fnord]

You're going to make bad folds on a lot of Axx flops, plus you have a strong interest in just taking the 825 on the table. I can't really see a way to spin this so he only sees 3 cards unless you're going to just felt any flop.

[taipan168]

Thanks for the replies. I've got no problem getting it AI preflop, just wondering whether I might have more FE on a non-A flop than preflop. Guess if opp does think about it he must know that I must have a monster hand to shove over here, and if he chooses to call with anything other than AA, that's a bet I'll take all day long.

Goat makes a good point about being able to pwn the bubble if I end up with the big stack and a shorty sitting out.

[cag8f]

This is post is interesting since I was in a similar situation yesterday. ALWAYS FOLD KK, BECAUSE THIS WILL HAPPEN EVERY TIME!!!!


Hero's M = 12.94
Full Tilt Poker Game #2815409534: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (21473502), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:45:00 ET - 2007/06/30
Condensed history provided by the Tournament Trimmer (v1.1.2w) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com
Seat 4: ALS24 (5,070)
Seat 7: massi8 (1,375)
Seat 8: tunstar (2,395)
Seat 9: jerry1333 (4,660)
massi8 posts the small blind of 120
tunstar posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4
Preflop: jerry1333 dealt K K
jerry1333 raises to 600
ALS24 raises to 2,160
massi8 folds
tunstar folds
jerry1333 raises to 4,660, and is all in
ALS24 calls 2,500
jerry1333 shows K K
ALS24 shows A A
Flop: 4 6 Q
Turn: 6
River: 3
jerry1333 shows two pair, Kings and Sixes
ALS24 shows two pair, Aces and Sixes
ALS24 wins the pot (9,680) with two pair, Aces and Sixes
jerry1333 stands up