Ugly AK hand

[chardrian]

I couldn't get the converter to work but here's the hand...

FullTiltPoker Game #2818910516: $11,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (21304081), Table 19 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:49:31 ET - 2007/07/01
Seat 1: geebeejr (17,331)
Seat 2: Wazzu2001 (13,840)
Seat 3: THEmadPADDLER (4,270)
Seat 4: Cesc89 (10,995)
Seat 5: bluey308 (20,580)
Seat 6: PkrEnthusiast (31,040)
Seat 7: chardrian (9,660)
Seat 8: banda (15,469)
Seat 9: RLANCE777777 (20,275)
geebeejr antes 50
Wazzu2001 antes 50
THEmadPADDLER antes 50
Cesc89 antes 50
bluey308 antes 50
PkrEnthusiast antes 50
chardrian antes 50
banda antes 50
RLANCE777777 antes 50
banda posts the small blind of 200
RLANCE777777 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to chardrian [As Kd]
geebeejr raises to 1,200
Wazzu2001 raises to 4,000
THEmadPADDLER folds
Cesc89 folds
bluey308 folds
PkrEnthusiast folds
chardrian has 15 seconds left to act
chardrian ??

[mcatdog]

This is, like, the easiest fold ever unless one of them is a nutcase.

[drmcboy]

fold

[johnny_fish]

shove QQ+ without reads

[chardrian]

I actually think this one is so close that there is no "right" answer.

[Reidak]

Yeah, ill take this to the wall.

Reason being: Only 2 hands beat us
- a double up gives us a near chip lead, and a massive stack at those blinds, so we can expect future equity with the steals we can make and plays we can make
- I dont mind going busto with AK

[mcatdog]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }

I'd be surprised if UTG+1's range was any wider than this, and it might be tighter.

[elipsesjeff]

I'd think about shoving here. We're not up against KK-AA here as Wazzu usualy isn't reraising that much to blast the oppponent out of the pot. Also, we will only have a few playable hands left before we're shortstacked.

If UTG wakes up with AA-KK then oh well. But it still isn't a very easy decision.

[chardrian]

I disagree that you can take AA and KK out of the mix and I agree with mcat's range....

but that still doesn't make it a an "easy" fold.

Even if we are a 40% dog here it is not that bad of a push. Even if we know that wazzuu is calling we are putting in 9600 to win over 21k. Which means that we are gambling just a bit.

Add to it that we may be better than 40% (if we can add hands like AQ in there which is definitely a possibility given that "scare" raise) and the shove is definitely defensible.

Then again, the fact that one of our As or Ks is very possibly counterfeited by at least one of the two in front of us and the fold becomes even more defensible.

So it really is a wash I think.

[elipsesjeff]

Then again, the fact that one of our As or Ks is very possibly counterfeited by at least one of the two in front of us and the fold becomes even more defensible.

That also makes it less likely that KK/AA is out there too.

What would you do if it were the final table? The fact we're not ITM yet makes me want to gamble more.

[mcatdog]

Even if we are a 40% dog here it is not that bad of a push. Even if we know that wazzuu is calling we are putting in 9600 to win over 21k. Which means that we are gambling just a bit.

Using those numbers you need 45% equity in the pot and if you only have 40% then you're costing yourself an average of about 3 BB. I understand the idea of gambling to get a big stack, if it's -EV by like 0.5 BB, but 3 BB seems does seem pretty bad to me.

I think 40% is actually kind of optimistic because even re-raising JJ or AK is questionable in Wazzuu's position. If he has AQ then he is a total aggro-donk, which obviously doesn't mean he can't have it given how many aggro-donks are in you average medium stakes tournament these days, so yeah maybe a shove isn't that bad.

The only hands with >45% are QQ+ which is exactly the range that johnny fish gave. Whenever johnny fish posts advice off the top of his head, it always seems like I reach the same conclusions if I do the math. I can understand why he destroys tournaments.

[dstir2]

i do think it's an easy fold. a few reasons come to mind. i think you have to respect the gap theory when it comes to your current chip stack and the stakes of this tourney. a raise from utg of 3xBB followed by a reraise of 10xBB from utg+1 makes this at best a questionable shove. furthermore, the stack sizes of these two players seem to indicate even more hand strength, seeing as their tourney lives aren't at stake quite yet. most importantly, your stack size is sufficient enough to fold this hand and wait for a much better spot. the only ways i'd push in this situation would be 1) agro opps in both utg and utg+1 2) chip stack of 7,000 or less

[AApoker]

I think this is a difficult fold but folding is likely best. The good news is you have no money invested in this pot... Basically the question here is how often does the re-raiser have AQ and AJ, the answer I would bet is almost never. Then this hand becomes reduced to the fact that you are flipping at best and perhaps dominated (AA, KK). This then becomes much like calling an all-in with a a small pair (of course with AK you are dominated much less). However there is no real reason to do it here, you have a 25bb stack and you can certainly find a better spot than this to get your chips in play.

[chardrian]

I think this is a difficult fold but folding is likely best. The good news is you have no money invested in this pot... Basically the question here is how often does the re-raiser have AQ and AJ, the answer I would bet is almost never. Then this hand becomes reduced to the fact that you are flipping at best and perhaps dominated (AA, KK). This then becomes much like calling an all-in with a a small pair (of course with AK you are dominated much less). However there is no real reason to do it here, you have a 25bb stack and you can certainly find a better spot than this to get your chips in play.

This was my thought process as well - I folded.

[dntpushme]

I wouldn't take the flip.

[mixchange]

I think this is a difficult fold but folding is likely best. The good news is you have no money invested in this pot... Basically the question here is how often does the re-raiser have AQ and AJ, the answer I would bet is almost never. Then this hand becomes reduced to the fact that you are flipping at best and perhaps dominated (AA, KK). This then becomes much like calling an all-in with a a small pair (of course with AK you are dominated much less). However there is no real reason to do it here, you have a 25bb stack and you can certainly find a better spot than this to get your chips in play.

wow this is an awesome post, I need to think more like this in MTT's. I just read aokrongly's stickied strategy patience post last night and it helped me finish 4th in the $10 180man, and I must say this is the type of golden advice I need to read more of. Great perspectives

Thank you.

[LeFou]

I was gonna say ... are you particularly enamored with those 50 chips or something?
Without a very specific read that the reraiser is one of those dumb pushy bastards, we're *hoping for a coinflip here. I hate hoping for a coinflip. You have enough chips.