$16 no reads what would you do?

[MissKitty]

PokerStars Game #10732139647: Tournament #54388179, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/07/02 - 15:20:47 (ET)
Table '54388179 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: demo0013 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: xo*Kisses*xo (1470 in chips)
Seat 3: hamilton080 (1420 in chips)
Seat 4: jackartier (1580 in chips)
Seat 5: akacash76 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: java II (1480 in chips)
Seat 7: Flush-Gun (1550 in chips)
Seat 8: silencer145 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: LooseTight (1500 in chips)
jackartier: posts small blind 10
akacash76: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xo*Kisses*xo [Tc As]
java II: folds
Flush-Gun: folds
silencer145: calls 20
LooseTight: folds
demo0013: folds
xo*Kisses*xo: calls 20
hamilton080: calls 20
jackartier: calls 10
akacash76: checks
*** FLOP *** [7d Td 4s]
jackartier: bets 80
akacash76: folds
silencer145: folds
xo*Kisses*xo: raises 140 to 220
hamilton080: folds
jackartier: raises 200 to 420
xo*Kisses*xo: ...

[taipan168]

I would have made it 80 to go preflop to try to get HU on the flop.

As played, on the flop, that is a tough spot. I'm torn between just letting it go right now and flat calling and seeing what he does on the turn. This is how I'd play if I'd flopped a set or two pair if I was SB. With position on opp I think I flat call and peel off a turn card.

[bjsaust]

I guess my question here, is what turn card will make us call a turn bet? Is there any reason to believe opp wont bet turn if we flat call flop 3-bet?

An A is good, but not neccessarily an out unless villian has a strangely played JJ-KK. Probably our only sure-fire out is another T.

On the other hand, we could be up against a strangely played KT or similar. Heck, could even be an 89s or something.

Awkward spot.

[TLR]

Since villian is the SB he can pretty much have anything, a set, FD, 2 pair etc..
I flat call and see the turn card and his action

[Jack Sawyer]

I'm folding here.
1pair is not a big pot hand.

Opp probably has limped overpair/ made set.

[bjsaust]

Since villian is the SB he can pretty much have anything, a set, FD, 2 pair etc..
I flat call and see the turn card and his action

Sorry to harp on, but this is one aspect of the game I dont really get.

What are we hoping to happen here, and how likely is it?

Hero has already committed 16% of her stack, calling this 3-bet will result in her committing 30% of her stack, and theres still the turn and river to come and there cant be many ways we can improve here.

[Jack Sawyer]

Since villian is the SB he can pretty much have anything, a set, FD, 2 pair etc..
I flat call and see the turn card and his action

Sorry to harp on, but this is one aspect of the game I dont really get.

What are we hoping to happen here, and how likely is it?

Hero has already committed 16% of her stack, calling this 3-bet will result in her committing 30% of her stack, and theres still the turn and river to come and there cant be many ways we can improve here.

We're hoping villain is a maniac, and he decided to bluff his chips away w/ AK/AJ/AQ

But then again, unless he's a total donk, he'd raise those hands PF. Still more args for folding.

[bjsaust]

If he's a maniac bluffing his chips away with AK, do we have any reason to believe he's not going to continue his bluff on the turn? Theres some chance, but how much chance? Enough to justify the call?

[Jack Sawyer]

Usually, after big bets get called, people with medium hands tend to slow down. Medium hands, in this situation, maybe AK (two overcards to flop.). Pairs like 99, 88, 66 also fall in this category, plus giving him backdoor straight draw. He may also aggressively be betting a straight draw (89).

A turn check, hero check behind.
A river check means he was bluffing. A river bet means hero *must* fold. Also, hero has lost 1/3 stack.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

To think he's not betting with a 10/flushdraw on the turn is ridiculous. Once she calls on the flop villain knows that she only has a medium strength hand and is pushing any made hand and likely any draw hoping she'll fold. So saying "flat call/see what happens on the turn" is bad IMO. You should make the decision with the hand right now. I would fold, but I fold to much .

[Jack Sawyer]

.. or the flush draw indeed. I didn't see the suits.

[taipan168]

Since villian is the SB he can pretty much have anything, a set, FD, 2 pair etc..
I flat call and see the turn card and his action

Sorry to harp on, but this is one aspect of the game I dont really get.

What are we hoping to happen here, and how likely is it?

Hero has already committed 16% of her stack, calling this 3-bet will result in her committing 30% of her stack, and theres still the turn and river to come and there cant be many ways we can improve here.

The argument for flat calling is POSITION - we have position on opp on the turn so we can see what he/she does. Unless opp flopped a set/two pair or is slowplaying an overpair there is no reason to believe we are behind here. KT/QT/JT often plays like this but will check the turn if we call the re-raise. If they bet big again on the turn Hero can happily fold knowing she is beat.

[badgers]

No one else wants to fold preflop?


Yes I am a supernit early, it is true, but with3 players left to act and the limper there are too many dominating hands for me to want to get involved with 75BBs...

[bjsaust]

OK, so enough times this 3-bet is TP weaker kicker, and in that case we'd normally expect a turn check?

I've seen the 2-bet do this, not the 3-bet much (usually its me 2-betting then checking down).


Yeah, I fold this PF Badgers, although with another limper before me I may decide I'm getting odds to limp.

[Fnord]

1pair is not a big pot hand.

Don't post stupid stuff like that. K-thnx.

[TLR]

Since villian is the SB he can pretty much have anything, a set, FD, 2 pair etc..
I flat call and see the turn card and his action

Sorry to harp on, but this is one aspect of the game I dont really get.

What are we hoping to happen here, and how likely is it?

Hero has already committed 16% of her stack, calling this 3-bet will result in her committing 30% of her stack, and theres still the turn and river to come and there cant be many ways we can improve here.

The argument for flat calling is POSITION - we have position on opp on the turn so we can see what he/she does. Unless opp flopped a set or is slowplaying an overpair there is no reason to believe we are behind here. KT/QT/JT often plays like this but will check the turn if we call the re-raise. If they bet big again on the turn Hero can happily fold knowing she is beat.

QFT, position is key here.

BTW Tai, villian can have 2 pair here as well

[bjsaust]

1pair is not a big pot hand.

Don't post stupid stuff like that. K-thnx.

TPTK with the pair being Ts though?

My sample size is still small and biased by human perceptions, but I seem to see a lot of people lose all their chips with TPTK when the TP is less than a J.

[LeFou]

You in a bad mood, Fnord?
I agree with bjsaust .. can't think of a single turn card I want to see here. Push into a zany aggressive idiot ; fold to pretty much anyone else.

[taipan168]

I agree with bjsaust .. can't think of a single turn card I want to see here. Push into a zany aggressive idiot ; fold to pretty much anyone else.

I'd be happy to felt this if an A/T comes on the turn.

[Jack Sawyer]

1pair is not a big pot hand.

Don't post stupid stuff like that. K-thnx.

We're pretty deepstacked right now.
Every time in the past, when deepstacked, I took TPTK to the river for all my stack, it's had bad results for me.
Villain is saying he has better than TPTK, I believe him.

No need to risk most if not all of my stack on a relatively weak hand when I have such high M.

[cag8f]

I agree with folding this pre-flop. Later on in the tourney, if villian had limped a bunch, I would raise this up.

As played, if you call, you will have invested 1/3 of your stack, and the only information you have about opp's hand is that he's strong. At this point in a tourney, making TPTK with a limped AT isn't something I want to felt or even get too heavily invested in. If I called, I would be hoping that opp. checks turn and river, and folding to any bet unless a non-spade A or T fell, and even then I'd be worried about a set/boat if opp. was still aggressive. Too risky for me so I would fold.