AQo reraised on bubble ($5.50)

[Crazy Scot]

What about a situation like this one, should we lay down the AQos, or push over the top and hope for the best? This wasnt the first time that the villian had reraised me.

PokerStars Game #10741697051: Tournament #54433306, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/07/03 - 01:31:19 (ET)
Table '54433306 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: JTNES (840 in chips)
Seat 4: BlkViper19 (2235 in chips)
Seat 6: cjxland (7860 in chips)
Seat 7: Kyle Rote (2565 in chips)
Kyle Rote: posts small blind 100
JTNES: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BlkViper19 [Ah Qd]
BlkViper19: raises 400 to 600
cjxland: raises 400 to 1000
Kyle Rote: folds
JTNES: folds
BlkViper19: ???

[badgers]

What about a situation like this one, should we lay down the AQos, or push over the top and hope for the best? This wasnt the first time that the villian had reraised me.

PokerStars Game #10741697051: Tournament #54433306, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/07/03 - 01:31:19 (ET)
Table '54433306 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: JTNES (840 in chips)
Seat 4: BlkViper19 (2235 in chips)
Seat 6: cjxland (7860 in chips)
Seat 7: Kyle Rote (2565 in chips)
Kyle Rote: posts small blind 100
JTNES: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BlkViper19 [Ah Qd]
BlkViper19: raises 400 to 600
cjxland: raises 400 to 1000
Kyle Rote: folds
JTNES: folds
BlkViper19: ???

Just push in the first place.

[bjsaust]

Std approach is not to open push unless M < 10, however if villian has a habit of reraising you then your options are to push every hand you play, or trap him with a monster.

Yes I push this. If he's made a habit of reraising you, AQ should fair well against his range. If this was the first time he reraised you I'd fold. Second time and I'd have to think about it, might fold that. Three or more and its insta-shove.

[taipan168]

{Split from Classic Bubble Situation}

[taipan168]

I agree with badgers, just open push. As played, fold to the re-raise. Hero has very limited fold equity and it is a disaster to risk taking a flip on the bubble. I can run the ICM on this (I don't have time now) but I'm pretty sure it is a fold.

[Random_Hero]

Yeah I shove this PF with 11xBB.

You want to see all 5 cards with this so shove PF is best option.

As played. its a tough one but probably a fold...

[rubixstreub]

I tend to push my high broadway combinations with 11.5BB or less. Even though you're above 10BB it just makes it harder for opponents to call or reraise.

[cag8f]

Assuming opponent will call your push, ICM says you need to be 34% or better to win the hand. Here are some of your win percentages vs. various hands he could hold:

22+, A2+, K9+, QT+, JT: 60%
66+, AT+: 47%
88+, AJ+: 43%
88+, AQ+: 37%
88+, AK+: 34%
TT+: 33%
JJ+: 30%

If you have a read that he's raising with more than just JJ+, it looks like you have the odds to push over. I agree though that you should have pushed pre-flop. I like the 13BB rule for pushing pre-flop. If I hadn't run the ICM numbers and I was in this situation, I probably would have folded to his push and waited for a better spot.

Edit: You have to odds to push over if he's raising with wider than TT+, not JJ+.

[badgers]

Assuming opponent will call your push, ICM says you need to be 32% or better to win the hand.

That sounds very very wrong. Are you sure you don't mean we have to win the hand 68% or more?

Edit : For the record this is a random guess, I was thinking you might have looked at the opposite to what you need...

[cag8f]

Maybe I'm doing something wrong. Here's my ICM math:

Hero has 1635/13500 (12%) of prize pool if he folds.
Hero has 4770/13500 (35%) of prize pool if he calls and wins.
Hero has 0% of prize pool if he calls and loses.

0.12 < 0.35x where x is hero's chance to win

x > 34%

Any problems here?

[taipan168]

Maybe I'm doing something wrong. Here's my ICM math:

Hero has 1635/13500 (12%) of prize pool if he folds.
Hero has 4770/13500 (35%) of prize pool if he calls and wins.
Hero has 0% of prize pool if he calls and loses.

0.12 < 0.35x where x is hero's chance to win

x > 34%

Any problems here?

Yes, you are calculating chip EV not $ EV. Use an ICM calculator and redo your stats to see what a difference it makes since this is the bubble.

[Crazy Scot]

I pushed, he called with 55. I hit my Q on the turn, Villian rivered a straight. Thanks for the input everyone. I really need to work on my bubble play from the mid stack.

BlkViper19: raises 1235 to 2235 and is all-in
cjxland: calls 1235
*** FLOP *** [3s 6h 7h]
*** TURN *** [3s 6h 7h] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [3s 6h 7h Qs] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BlkViper19: shows [Ah Qd] (a pair of Queens)
cjxland: shows [5h 5s] (a straight, Three to Seven)
cjxland collected 4770 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4770 | Rake 0
Board [3s 6h 7h Qs 4c]
Seat 2: JTNES (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: BlkViper19 showed [Ah Qd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 6: cjxland (button) showed [5h 5s] and won (4770) with a straight, Three to Seven
Seat 7: Kyle Rote (small blind) folded before Flop

[taipan168]

Don't post results so soon, particularly when the discussion is still open!

[cag8f]

Sorry for the misinfo. Thanks for correcting me and I'll do some reading up before such posts. What's funny is that before completing my original post, I had a line in there that said something along the lines of, "The only thing you can't quantify is the fact that you will be busted out on the bubble." But ICM does just that. As an exercise for myself, here's what I've re-calculated (from the ICM link Tai sent):

Your ICM equity if you fold: 0.2171
Your ICM equity if you call and win: 0.3298
Your ICM equity if you call and lose: 0

0.2171 = 0.3298x where x is your chance to win
x > 66%

This makes a call not good. Anyone agree/disagree?

[dsaxton]

Pretty much what everyone else said. Open push so you can't be forced to fold or call off your chips. You prefer to put your opponents in that position. As played, fold to the reraise for the reasons taipan gave.

[taipan168]

Sorry for the misinfo. Thanks for correcting me and I'll do some reading up before such posts. What's funny is that before completing my original post, I had a line in there that said something along the lines of, "The only thing you can't quantify is the fact that you will be busted out on the bubble." But ICM does just that. As an exercise for myself, here's what I've re-calculated (from the ICM link Tai sent):

Your ICM equity if you fold: 0.2171
Your ICM equity if you call and win: 0.3298
Your ICM equity if you call and lose: 0

0.2171 = 0.3298x where x is your chance to win
x > 66%

This makes a call not good. Anyone agree/disagree?

Perfect! I did the calculation myself and this is exactly what I came up with. You can see that even against the loosest range you came up with, you're only 60% to win so you have to fold this.