Trip Q's.. facing heat in limped pot

[griffey24]

-villain in this hand is overall solid, haven't seen him get out of line yet
-he is running at 23/18/3ish

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $93
CO: $340.65
Button: $111.20
SB: $322.55
Hero: $200.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with
UTG folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, 2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: ($24, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $49, Hero calls. <-- how is this call? should I just push/fold?

River: ($122, 2 players)
SB bets $142, Hero ??

[overflow]

My range for villian here is AhXh, 22, 44, As2s, 77-TT. I'm weighting towards the higher end of his possible range, as it was limped pre and he still calls on that flop, and then check raises the turn. He could have a hand like Q9/QT, maybe even KQ, he seems like a standard TAG, I doubt he'd raise KQo in the SB with 3 limpers.

I'd say flatcall, the chance you're up against a boat is realistic based on villians strong line on two streets, there's a lot of hands you're beating here and a lot of hands that are beating you. I think this is a standard WA/WB, and you lose too much money when you're behind to raise profitably against calling hands you beat. Ah3h gets paid.

[Galapogos]

I fold. Trips in a limped pot with a mediocre kicker is not my friend.

[overflow]

I fold. Trips in a limped pot with a mediocre kicker is not my friend.

So you're putting villian on Q2,Q4,Q5,KQ,AQ,22,44,55,A3 enough to ignore the fact that this might be a missed flush draw? Or even something like 2pair Q's and 9's, Q's and T's, something like A2/A4 for Q's and 2's or 4's? Maybe even as low as Q's and 6's.

If villian realizes your call of his check raise on the turn means you have a Q, he's going to do this with almost any holding that he checkraised with on the turn to see where he's at, because you're likely to fold a Q with a bad kicker on the river if you don't fill up. Hero has to be ahead often enough to call here.

Option 2 is he's value betting because he's got you beat and he knows a Q is almost impossible to fold with this board texture. How do we go about determining if we're ahead often enough to call?

[overflow]

It's situations like this that always have me pulling my hair out, I know I'm ahead a lot of the time, I know I'm crushed some of the time, and villian would make the same play regardless of who had who crushed to take control of the river action.

A good question to ask ourselves here is "Does my flatcall on the turn smell more like a naked set of Queens, or a boat." I think villian is probably putting you on a boat because you almost have to reraise with a set of queens with two flush draws on the board, and a weak flop line by villian. If you believe that villian thinks you have a boat, and is still leading into you on the river , it would seem like an autofold.

[Ash256]

Spades is possible, but I'm not sure if he thinks you're capable of folding three Queens.. Add to that that you could have 22, I can't see him bluffing much here.. Which makes it a fold.

[griffey24]

I fold. Trips in a limped pot with a mediocre kicker is not my friend.

Do you fold on the turn or on the river?

If you fold the river, whats the biggest bet you'd let yourself call in this spot?

[sauce123]

raise preflop

as played fold river

[crazycrazy]

guys,

23/18/3ish means vpip/flops/pfr ?? or ??? flops with in blinds or not in blinds ?

ty

[IowaSkinsFan]

It looks bluffy, but it's a limped pot so I fold.

[overflow]

guys,

23/18/3ish means vpip/flops/pfr ?? or ??? flops with in blinds or not in blinds ?

ty

First number is VP$IP, it's the percentage of the pot that person has contributed voltuntarily, which means outside of, and in addition to the blinds.

The second number is preflop raise % (PFR%), this is the ratio of the number of times the person has raised preflop with the number of hands they've been dealt.

The 3rd number is Total Aggression Factor, which (and guys DEFINITELY correct me if I'm wrong here) is a post flop stat that tracks how often you're opening and raising ratioed against how frequently you're just calling.

[griffey24]

Ok so most of you are saying fold, which makes me think I might have played this hand poorly.

I was actually villain in this hand, and I had pocket 2's, for a full house on the turn.

He ended up calling my river push, but by the responses here I'm guessing my line might not be the most +EV, if the Q folds the river.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

ok, haha, when i saw this hand i was thinking more about how the villain should've played it than how "you" should have.

Definitely lead the flop, if he raises you can 3-bet or call and c/p the turn whichever is fine. You shouldn't c/r a limped pot and you definitely shouldn't be c/c.

[sauce123]

yea man u gotta make some absurdly large raise on the flop here or lead or build a pot or whatever

[griffey24]

massimo/sauce - yah I agree. This was one of those 5% of the times where I don't actually lead my set, and check call for some odd reason. I'm not sure why, I think at the time i thought leading out into four players was gonna seem too strong.

But yah I agree, leading woulda been good. Villain would have called,and then probably raised my turn lead, and I could have 3-bet.

[Unibomber14]

I have no credible response to this hand, but I like how you did that (with the roll swap). It changes the way I might think about future hands before I post them here.

[snowbird4life]

I kinda like how you played it from villain POV. The bet on the river doesn't make me think your valuebetting your nuts, but more of a missed draw perhaps. While a lead bet here may seem to be good in retrospect, what if noone had a queen? Not much value there.