Good spot for a turn bluff?

[zook]

Villain is a 2/4-3/6 regular I've played a fair amount with. He's 22/16/3 over a lot of hands. My notes say he bets draws aggressively and 3-bets me a lot. Much earlier in the night I stacked him on another table as follows... I had AQs he called my button raise from the sb with KJs. He donked a J-high two-tone flop, I raised big with the nut flush draw. Turn came offsuit Q, I overbet pushed and he called with second pair and gutshot. Not sure why he donked that up so badly, must have thought I was a bluffer.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 6 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $621.30
Hero: $579
CO: $1288.05
Button: $565.55
SB: $418.20
BB: $600

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K J
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 4 folds.

Flop: K 7 5 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $39, Hero calls.

Turn: 4 ($129, 2 players)
UTG bets $99, Hero...

[Rondavu]

This spot depends on how you would play a flush draw against this opponent in this spot if you actually had one. Float lines rely heavily on cold call frequency in genuine situations against certain known opponents.

The point is if you have a flush draw on this exact flop, you would raise the flop a lot, because hands like 88-QQ would bet out and possibly fold when you semi bluff raise. In other words your flush draw semi bluff fold equity is way too high for him to believe you wouldn't take a shot at the pot immediately, therefore there's a good chance he won't believe you made a flush on the turn after cold calling the flop.

In my mind it's likely this opponent is semi bluffing or cold donking the flop for the same reasons you wouldn't be floating it with a draw.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think so because the fact that he has to put you on Kx or a flush and Kx with clubs draws your not necessarily raising.

I think you don't necessarily raise flushes on this flop.

[bigspenda73]

His read is that you raise your flush draws though.

[zook]

Very nice post Rondavu. It's really got me thinking about balancing my float lines vs. regulars.

New topic... vs. a solid tagg, 22/18 who c-bets ~80% of the time, what kinds of flops do you like to raise with draws and what kinds do you like to call? How does the quality of your draw affect the decision (nut flush, low flush, obv straight, hidden straight, combo)?

[bigspenda73]

OMG Rondavu's back!!

[Halv]

I think the original hand is a good spot for a valuebluff (or merging or w/e) raise. That turn card is a pretty good one for him to second barrell with a lot of hands if his read is that we raise FDs on the flop. We can't really flat call because we'll get outdrawn or outplayed on too many rivers, and a raise gets value from/protection against Acx and maybe QcQx/JcJx, plus he'll lay down KQ/AK some of the time.

Re: the followup topic, it really depends on the villain, his range vs board texture, and the general flow of the game. I raise NFD's and combos pretty much always though.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Is folding preflop bad? It's a suited connector, but your dominated by a lot of his range.

As for after calling preflop. I'd probably call turn and call a large river bet if it's a non club. You have some history, he seems like a pretty aggro dude, and he is pretty sure you don't have a flush. It's an easy three barrel once you call the turn so you really have to call the river.

[gabe]

i would just fold, i only make big moves on people who i KNOW like folding

[zook]

i would just fold, i only make big moves on people who i KNOW like folding

How do you figure that out?

[Galapogos]

i would just fold, i only make big moves on people who i KNOW like folding

How do you figure that out?

Take notes on a players most questionable calls.