100NL - is this too aggressive?

[silu73]

I have been getting good cards and raising quite a bit. Have been 3-betting at least 3 times within 4 orbits. How bad is this line?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($258.64)
Button ($99.50)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($41.78)
UTG ($119.12)
MP ($106.01)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, T.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button raises to $28, Hero calls $258.64 (All-In)

[Fnord]

What'cha know about the button?

[silu73]

Not much. His stats over 30 or so hands were 19/12. He seemed OK and not spewy at all.

[Fnord]

Well, he pretty much can't be bluffing here.

[snowbird4life]

yeah, i don't like this at all, especially considering your read. While its possible he may be playing back to fight your agroness and your cbets, i think thats pretty unlikely against a 19/12.

You might be drawing live to your OESD, but i still don't think its worth pushing. I think your probably dead to 8 outs (your OESD) maybe less. Even against just a raggedy jack, (and he probably has a lot better hand) your still a slight dog. Unless i have reads that he likes to play back at my cbets, i think this is the wrong move.

If you want to call and reevaluate the turn, i think that may be alright, but the pot is getting huge. I think a fold here is probably the best move without uber reads.

[IowaSkinsFan]

its okay.

[Da GOAT]

fold here,

if your opp has playing back at you on flop a few times then by all means shove it down his neck.

[Galapogos]

Fold here. You have mid-pair with a straight draw that will be very obvious when it completes. Unless he has been playing back at you too much in which case I would push.

[Fnord]

Betting this flop may not have been that keen of an idea.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.133% 28.22% 00.91% 67166468 2172141.50 { Tc9h }
Hand 1: 70.867% 69.95% 00.91% 166499505 2172141.50 { 88+, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs+, J8s+, AJo-ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }