OESD in BB 3-handed ($27)

[taipan168]

SB is a donkey, one of those see every flop with ATC kind of players but never raises preflop, stats 35/0. Button seemed unremarkable, perhaps a bit on the loose side.

What do you do on this flop? Shove it?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t2030)
Button (t4055)
SB (t7415)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 5.
Button calls t200, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t600) 2, 4, 6 (3 players)
SB bets t200, Hero ????

[biondino]

Yeah, I reckon so. The presence of the button in the hand might even be a plus because if button calls, the sb is more likely to and therefore your risk/reward will improve a lot. I think I may be slightly clutching at straws here, but you're ITM and you need to both double up and show them they can't run all over you.

[drmcboy]

shove is +EV, but with these stack sizes I sorta lean to a call hoping that SB checks turn and we can shove then.

Moving in here looks exactly like what your hand is and I can't really see something better than 4x folding. Folding 4x really isn't a great result.

[topsoyale]

Shove now while you have a good draw and a decent amount of FE. Calling can lead to a tough turn decision and folding is too weak in my opinion.

[taipan168]

shove is +EV, but with these stack sizes I sorta lean to a call hoping that SB checks turn and we can shove then.

That's interesting, that was exactly my logic for calling. This is what happened. What do I do on the turn? Shove it?

Flop: (t600) 2, 4, 6 (3 players)
SB bets t200, Hero calls t200, Button calls t200.

Turn: (t1200) J (3 players)
SB bets t200, Hero ????

[FlyingSaucy]

Call gives good draw odds, but the J is troublesome with Button still there ready to push against both of you guys' weakness. I still favor a call if you are pretty sure Button is a loose caller /passive.

[bigspenda73]

I don't get it, I thought you were ITM once it got to 3handed.

[bjsaust]

He is ITM.

As played I fold turn. I'm not sure you can fold the other 2 now, and you have attrocious odds to hit your straight (chance of it happenning, not pot odds).

[drmcboy]

Hmmm, 200 again. It's such a weird play with any hand.... I dunno. Clearly call, but I still think I want to move in. Maybe he also has a draw and wants to play for cheap, or he has 35. But I don't think calling is bad. One good thing about the J is it probably doesn't make anyone two pair, although honestly with this action I'm lost.

I'm not sure you can fold the other 2 now, and you have attrocious odds to hit your straight (chance of it happenning, not pot odds).

4/1 =! 'attrocious'. We are gettting 7/1 from the pot and button may still call. If you want to talk about button moving in, then we talk about implied odds on river. This is not close to a fold.

[bjsaust]

We're a bit worse than 4:1 (4.75:1). So if we call then almost 5 times in 6 we fold the river having thrown an additional 200 chips away. We're down to 1600 chips, if we call this we're left with 1400 at the end of the hand most times.

At this point I'm generally conserving those chips to make the most of opportunities later.

Its just one of those times when I think the value of conserving chips outways the mathematical correctness of calling. Obviously calling isnt incorrect, its just not what I'd do for the reason stated. If I was HU I might well push, I'm just not convinced we could fold both opps in this spot with a push.

[drmcboy]

Its just one of those times when I think the value of conserving chips outways the mathematical correctness of calling.

My problem with this arguement is it can't be proven. You can always use this as an excuse to make weak folds unless you're willing to run long elaborate ICM calcs. Have you done the ICM on 200 chips 5 times vs 1400 once? Please post. If not, you should be able to describe how you will use them later. Include:

why it's so much better it justifies ignoring pot odds, especially post bubble

which hands you play better at 100/200 with 1600 chips instead of 1400.

If we had the 7k stack instead of the 2k stack would you still fold?

Where is the break even point between when we still use pot odds to guide us and when we ignore them in favor of chip consevation?

[bigspenda73]

He is ITM.

I know he is, it's my way of saying Taipan played the hand weakly.

[bjsaust]

No, it cant be proven. I admit that calling is the mathematically correct thing to do. Maybe I've just been burnt too many times chasing these draws and ending up with nothing more than less chips.

The obvious advantage of 1600 chips over 1400 chips, is if we push and get called and win we end up with 3200 chips instead of 2800 chips. In a sense our 200 chips saved now are worth 400 in a double up situation.

I could try to make an argument for more FE with a push with 1600 instead of 1400, but I dont think thats really the case.

Another reason to fold is the fact that both bigstacks are still in there. Its unlikely, but its always possible they'll get into a pissing match on the river and one will be knocked out, while we stand aside and watch.

If I had the 7k stack this wouldnt be an issue, I'd have pushed the flop . But as played, yes I would call here with a 7k stack, because its a much smaller proportion of our stack than it is with heros stack here. As for a cutoff point? Probably if I'd started the hand with 2600 chips, which means we could call this and still have 10BBs behind.

This is just a gutfeel opinion. If this decision was purely mathematical based on pot odds, then theres no need to even discuss this thread (or post it in the first place).

I guess my stance with a small stack is to either play any particular hand aggressively or weakly. If we're not going to play this one aggressively, then I play it weakly and fold.

[bjsaust]

Hmm, just had a shower and thought about this some more.

What I dont like doing here is using pot odds to make my decision without regard to stack size. So I guess my focus should really be on implied odds (if we hit I think we have a VERY good chance of getting at least one opp to call a push) v's bets proportion to stack size.

So is it worthwhile calling 12.5% (1/8) of our stack, to win 150% of our stack (or is it 250%, how do you express that if we expect to win the 800 in there + our 1600 chips).

So if we miss we have a stack of 1400, if we fold we have a stack of 1600 and if we hit we end up with a stack of at least 4000. We hit 17% of the time.

So we compare:
1600 < (1400 * 0.83) + (4000 * 0.17)
1600 < 1842

Which is true, so calling is the best option. Calc should probably have some allowance for when we hit but dont get our push called, but I figure thats approximately evened out by the times we get more in the pot than just one player calling our push.

Looked at that way I change my mind and call . The risk now seems worth the reward.

[TLR]

The way you describe both opponents I call.
I think SB is betting a pair, not neccessarily top pair, and he is not going anywhere.
Button is more troublesome since he is probably drawing to an inside str8+overcard
3,8 and 7 probably will give you the best hand, so you have 11 outs, and SB is paying you if you hit, if you call 200 and then fold you are in a pretty bad situation but vs weak opponents its not over yet