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AK on bubble, flush draw on turn that hits on river ($27)

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  1. #1

    Default AK on bubble, flush draw on turn that hits on river ($27)

    BB's stats are 28/23. I can't fold the turn with those odds, even with the possibility that I'm already dead to the A or (less likely) a full house. As played, what's my move on the river?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Button (t2760) - note: sitting out
    Hero (t3390)
    BB (t4825)
    UTG (t2525)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
    2 folds, Hero raises to t450, BB calls t300.

    Flop: (t900) 9, 9, 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets t500, BB calls t500.

    Turn: (t1900) 3 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets t450, Hero calls t450.

    River: (t2800) T (2 players)
    Hero ????
  2. #2
    I can't fold the turn with those odds, even with the possibility that I'm already dead to the A or (less likely) a full house. As played, what's my move on the river?
    You called the turn hoping for another diamond. Now when the diamond hits you have to shove to get your money in pot (it isn't even a pot-sized bet).

    If you didn't have a plan when you hit you shouldn't have called the turn in the first place.
  3. #3
    check/call.
    He'll most likely check behind you with his 9.
  4. #4
    If you didn't have a plan when you hit you shouldn't have called the turn in the first place.
    agree.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Geanosssss
    check/call.
    He'll most likely check behind you with his 9.
    I would be very surprised if villain showed up with a 9 here.
  6. #6
    I get it all in on the river. You have second nut flush and I can't see villain on a full house.

    I think a nine is rare and this is most likely a mid pocket pair trying to pick off overcards.
  7. #7
    I'd bet an amount that pot commits me, but not so much that it's difficult for him to call with a worse hand. Given this guy's play, he's probably bad and will call a medium-sized bet with a wide range.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Zee Devee
    Quote Originally Posted by Geanosssss
    check/call.
    He'll most likely check behind you with his 9.
    I would be very surprised if villain showed up with a 9 here.
    I wouldnt be suprised. Youve never seen anyone slow play?
    Obviously a half decent player would of bet bigger on the turn...
  9. #9
    Don't be results orientated taipan! I'm guessing you shoved this vs. the Ad. You need to shove here, you don't want to give a crap flush the chance to check behind.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Geanosssss
    Quote Originally Posted by Zee Devee
    Quote Originally Posted by Geanosssss
    check/call.
    He'll most likely check behind you with his 9.
    I would be very surprised if villain showed up with a 9 here.
    I wouldnt be suprised. Youve never seen anyone slow play?
    Obviously a half decent player would of raised the turn...
    What do you mean?

    Yes I have seen slowplaying before, but this would jsut be assinine. Villain bet 1/5th the pot on the turn, giving anyone with a diamond huge odds to draw to it. Someone with trips would not want anyone to draw here, so he should have bet more with 3 diamonds on the board.

    And..."Obviously a half decent player would of raised the turn..."
    What? Villain bet the turn.
  11. #11
    Villain could always be levelling and giving us odds to draw to the flush while he sits there on a full house nicely building the pot. More likely he's a donk with a diamond or a nine.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by badgers
    Don't be results orientated taipan! I'm guessing you shoved this vs. the Ad. You need to shove here, you don't want to give a crap flush the chance to check behind.
    I did shove here. Once people stop commenting I'll post what he had.
  13. #13
    And..."Obviously a half decent player would of raised the turn..."
    What? Villain bet the turn.
    Yeah my bad, Ive corrected it now. I meant a decent player would of bet bigger on the turn.
    Yes I have seen slowplaying before, but this would jsut be assinine. Villain bet 1/5th the pot on the turn, giving anyone with a diamond huge odds to draw to it. Someone with trips would not want anyone to draw here, so he should have bet more with 3 diamonds on the board.
    and I emphasise on the ''half decent'' part.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by taipan168
    I did shove here. Once people stop commenting I'll post what he had.
    I shoved the river. Opp instacalled with KxJ
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by badgers
    Don't be results orientated taipan! I'm guessing you shoved this vs. the Ad. You need to shove here, you don't want to give a crap flush the chance to check behind.
    LOL, if you read any of the gazilion post Taipan has made he is the least result oriented person you can think of

    Regarding the specific hand I would shove the turn, you have 2 overcards + FD and it is a nice pot already

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