$5.50 - Chicken? - AKo

[Black Sheep]

So, Button has been semi-loose agressive :P and just lost a allin and i just builded up my stack a few hands ago, so i wanted to chill a little. Just didnt know what to do with this hand. Maybe little bit of postion, what i the right decision here? P.S kinda loose and agressive game overall.

CD Poker Tallinn 100/200, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Button (2170)
SB (2170)
BB (2520)
UTG (3040)
UTG+1 (3820)
CO (1280)

Preflop: UTG+1 is UTG+1 with K A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 600, 1 fold, Button moves all-in for 2170, 3 folds

[taipan168]

Easy call for me with your read that Button was LAGG, and considering that you'll still have an OK stack if you call this and lose. I'll run the ICM on this later to show that this is an easy call.

[taipan168]

OK, here's the ICM analysis on your hand:

- If you fold you will have 3220 chips worth 20.6% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 6290 chips worth 33.2% of the prize pool
- If call and lose you will have 1650 chips worth 12.2% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be 40% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming that opp shoves over with 88+, AQ+ (which may be too tight given your read that opp is LAGG) then you are 48% to win making this an easy call. If opp shoves over with 66+, AT+ then you are 54% to win making it an even easier call.

Hope that helped!

[mukaka]

I never understood how you reach the last three numbers

%40, %48 and %54

[badgers]

I never understood how you reach the last three numbers

%40, %48 and %54

3. % of time Hero needs to win to make calling (taking into account the possibility of both winning and losing) worth at least the same % of the prize pool as folding:

20.6% = (x * 33.2%) + ((1-x) * 12.2%) where x = probability of winning

Solving for x (if you suck at algebra because like me you haven’t done it for 15+ years, you can use goal seek in Excel to solve this), x = 40% so Hero needs to be at least 40% to win against Villain’s likely range to make this call +EV.

(Note the calculation becomes easier if Villain has Hero covered because the term starting with (1-x) won’t be there)

I edited the numbers from Tai's stickied post.

To get the percentage of winning against a ange of opponents hands, use Pokerstove. It's free and magnificent. That's where Tai got 48% and 54%

About to actually check the maths, if I wrongly cut/pasted I'll edit...

[taipan168]

If you're having trouble solving the equation, try this:

http://www.algebrahelp.com/calculators/equation/

[badgers]

I was actually wrestling with goal seek I'm useless with excel, got there in the end though and it all seems to work. Cut and steal from tai FTW!

Thanks for the link though, I've bookmarked it and will use it whenever I have to attempt to understand algebra in the future!

[Black Sheep]

Easy call for me with your read that Button was LAGG, and considering that you'll still have an OK stack if you call this and lose. I'll run the ICM on this later to show that this is an easy call.

Yeah, exactly was thinking that too, that i got a fair chance to still make it with a 1650 stack. But somehow i found the fold to be the right play.

OK, here's the ICM analysis on your hand:

- If you fold you will have 3220 chips worth 20.6% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 6290 chips worth 33.2% of the prize pool
- If call and lose you will have 1650 chips worth 12.2% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be 40% to win to make this a good call.

Assuming that opp shoves over with 88+, AQ+ (which may be too tight given your read that opp is LAGG) then you are 48% to win making this an easy call. If opp shoves over with 66+, AT+ then you are 54% to win making it an even easier call.

Hope that helped!

Yup, those facts really helped, looked on it in a different way with those facts. Very helpful. Thanx!

[fdnypoker]

just lost a allin and i just builded up my stack a few hands ago, so i wanted to chill a little

This is exactly why I call this AI. You have a decent read on opp, they know you just lost an AI, maybe they think you're steaming. After seeing Taipans numbers it makes the call that much easier.

Also....after lose a big pot you have to treat the next hand as a completely new independent event. With the blinds at 100/200 there's little time to sit back and chill out. I love picking up a hand after losing a big pot the hand prior. I may even throw in a little B.S. chat prior to making my bet!!

[mukaka]

thanks for the equation and the site people cheers..

[Black Sheep]

just lost a allin and i just builded up my stack a few hands ago, so i wanted to chill a little

This is exactly why I call this AI. You have a decent read on opp, they know you just lost an AI, maybe they think you're steaming. After seeing Taipans numbers it makes the call that much easier.

Also....after lose a big pot you have to treat the next hand as a completely new independent event. With the blinds at 100/200 there's little time to sit back and chill out. I love picking up a hand after losing a big pot the hand prior. I may even throw in a little B.S. chat prior to making my bet!!

Good point there, didnt see it like that. The thing was that i didnt want to loose my stack again since i had a my position here to take it home.