Blind Stealing late in a MTT, short stacked.

[d0zer]

For the sake of discussion, I'm talking about the PS 180 $4.40 / $11 SnG tournies.

I remember reading in phil gordon's green book on blind stealing. He recommends stealing blinds on average 1.3 times per rotation to stay afloat with the blinds & antes.

Well -- how feasible is this actually when you get into short-stacked mode, late in a tourney (40 people left). Say 10-15 BBs. Down there you're pretty much in push or fold mode, so that seems like a lot of risk-taking if you're pushing that often. If I'm still around 20-25BBs, I feel better about blind stealing with standard raises, and feel ok with the 1.3/rotation figure. More short-stacked should that number be adjusted in a more conservative direction?

I prefer blind-stealing with pocket pairs because of their odds vs overcards if called, but down that low -- all it takes is getting caught once by an overpair and you're pretty much toast. Plus you can't exactly count on pocket pairs coming 1.3 times per rotation...

Last night I found myself in this situation, with 10-15 bbs. I had stole the blinds from early position twice in the last two rotations with a push (but I was pushing with QQ & AA). The table was tight -- not many calls on all-in pushes. A rotation later I found myself with QJs in late position -- I try to push again and get called by KK, busted out. is QJ too vunerable a hand to blind steal with when you're in push/fold mode?

[drmcboy]

you aren't stealing the blinds with QQ/AA - I would not open push with 10+BBs unless you have been in a lot already. Especially at a tight table where no one is calling pushes. You need action with these.

1.3 number really isn't useful, it's more of a way of saying that you need to win more than one pot worth of antes per orbit or your stack is going the wrong way.

You're taking a risk moving in with 10-15 BBs. You're also taking a risk if you don't.

Mostly your post feels like you want to avoid needing to get lucky when you are short stacked. Can't be done.

[cobere]

In terms of the standard raise steal, I definitely stop trying to do that once I get under 15xBB. With that stack size, you definitely don't want to make a std raise, get called, throw out a c-bet and get reraised when you whiff the flop.

At that point, I'm either looking to resteal (push) over top of a loose raiser (ideally from the blinds vs someone who is stealing constantly), or hunker down and find a good spot to push.

What constitutes a good push is another matter. There are all sorts of factors to consider -- your stack size, position, opponents' stack sizes, when the blinds are going up -- to name just a few. Oh yeah, your cards matter a little bit, most of the time.

[drmcboy]

great point, 15BB is perfect re steal stack.

[thelipkin]

First of all, 10bb is way different from 15bb. 10bb can raise to 3x preflop, then 7 on the flop, which may not be a good enough bet multiway. 15bb can hammer pretyt much any flop, and it can also double up right back into the upper middle portion of the pack. So, to say that with 10-15 you are desperate is not really a specific enough assesment.

With a short stack, you need to try and put yourself back in position to win the tournament. You cannot worry about if your hand is too vulnerable or not, you need to worry about if its chances of winning against your opponents calling range + your folding equity is enough to make it favorable. This has much more to deal with how few opponents you are betting into, how loose or tight they are, how close to a bubble you are, and how much your stack can hurt their stack than if QJ in the abstract is a good enough hand. QJ can be either fine or not good enough at all, contextually.

But to sum it up, if Mr. Gordon's book has you only thinking about stealing 1.3 times per orbit and what cards are good enough, he is not teaching you a good way of thinking about a tournament. If you could somehow steal every other hand, you need to be able to. And if it seems better to pick the loosest guy at the table and push over one of his raises and win 4.5 bets at once rather than 1.5 three times, well, its all good.

[d0zer]

This is all good stuff guys, thanks.

I feel like my game the first few levels of a tourney is pretty solid, tight aggressive -- but I can see that I definitely need to re-think the way I play when I have less room...

[mpendergast]

People tighten up on the bubble so they are not calling you without a big hand