JJ against LAGG 2nd stack ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were something like 26/20. I have no fold equity here, but can I let this go?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t2610)
MP1 (t1930)
MP2 (t2835)
CO (t895)
Button (t1085)
SB (t610)
BB (t2255)
UTG (t1280)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J, J.
1 fold, Hero raises to t300, 5 folds, BB raises to t1200, Hero ????

[CoccoBill]

26/20 doesn't sound maniacal, over how many hands? I guess if he's raising 66+,AJ+,KQs or looser this should be a push.

[TLR]

I would push over, I think most of the time AA/KK raise much less in this case to induce a call

[Deanglow]

I think this is a fold.

[Local_Echo]

Yeah, I think you can let this one go.

[taipan168]

I think I can answer my own question here.

- If I fold I will have 2310 chips worth 16.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I will have 4915 chips worth 29.9% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I will have 355 chips worth 3.1% of the prize pool

Therefore, assuming that opp calls 100% of the time I need to be 51.1% to win against opp's range to make this a good shove over. Against say 99+, AQ+ I'm about 48% to win so have to fold this.

This assumes that opp never ever folds here. Even if he folded 10% of the time it would make a big difference. Thoughts?

[TLR]

I think your range is too narrow for villian here.
In addition there are two issues with putting the opponent on a range in this format that affect close calls as this one when you are trying to figure out the 'correct' answer.
1. It does not take into account the chance of a total bluff, there is probably about 3-5% chance that he has total air.
2. All the hands in the range assume to have the same likelyhood to appear. I think 99 is much more likely then AA here for example

[Deanglow]

AK mostly shoves here and I think the pairs you are way behind play it exactly this way, raising more than half their stack begging for action. I believe smaller pairs are more likely to push in this spot.

[badgers]

I think your range is too narrow for villian here.
In addition there are two issues with putting the opponent on a range in this format that affect close calls as this one when you are trying to figure out the 'correct' answer.
1. It does not take into account the chance of a total bluff, there is probably about 3-5% chance that he has total air.
2. All the hands in the range assume to have the same likelyhood to appear. I think 99 is much more likely then AA here for example

I think it's extremely unlikely this is total air, more like fractions of a percent. I really think we have 0 FE here. If anything I think AA is more likely than 99 because of the strange raise size. As Deanglow said, this is begging for action. That said, against this opp I think we can make the range a little wider, even adding 88 to the range makes this a push and I think we can do that here.

[TLR]

I think your range is too narrow for villian here.
In addition there are two issues with putting the opponent on a range in this format that affect close calls as this one when you are trying to figure out the 'correct' answer.
1. It does not take into account the chance of a total bluff, there is probably about 3-5% chance that he has total air.
2. All the hands in the range assume to have the same likelyhood to appear. I think 99 is much more likely then AA here for example

I think it's extremely unlikely this is total air, more like fractions of a percent. I really think we have 0 FE here. If anything I think AA is more likely than 99 because of the strange raise size. As Deanglow said, this is begging for action. That said, against this opp I think we can make the range a little wider, even adding 88 to the range makes this a push and I think we can do that here.

I dont think the bet size means action, its 4 times the initial raise, a raise in the range of 300-500 is begging for action, this smells more like 'I want to take the pot down now but I am not willing to commit my entire stack'

[badgers]

I guess some people shove here with 99, some do this raise, the same with AA. Either way I don't think we can wieght his range to either, without a specific read I don't think his bet size gives away enough information.