AKs on missed flop, is opp stop 'n' go-ing? ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats 32/9 over 57 hands. Is this a stop 'n' go or am I drawing to 6 outs here?

(BTW preflop was a mistake, I should have just shoved it).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t925)
SB (t1735)
BB (t1380)
UTG (t3095)
MP1 (t1265)
MP2 (t2200)
Hero (t2900)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K.
3 folds, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, SB calls t500, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1400) 7, 7, 4 (2 players)
SB bets t1135 (All-In), Hero ????

[fdnypoker]

Ugh....bad spot here. Not knowing opp I would fold this hand. Their call on your pre flop raise is what concerns me. That's nearly 40% of their stack. Sirens going off in my head.

A fold and you're left with 2300...still in the mix. Could be a stop-n-go and if it is I pat my opp on the back, say nh and make a note about them. Interested to see what the better players do in a spot like this.

[badgers]

As you know I like a call here. We are getting over 2:1 facing what looks exactly like a stop and go on an uncoordinated board. I can't see why 77+ would shove here, villains most likely hands are 55-66 or air imo.

[bjsaust]

This is such a perfect Stop'n'Go spot. Opp is very good if he's doing that here. That flop bet is so perfect. I love this hand by opp no matter if he's got a 4, a 7, and overpair, or nothing.

Enough of that though, what do you do?

Man, I just cant put a 7 in his range. 32/9 is loose, but not 30% of your stack on crap loose. The real question is does he have an overpair? I have a shitty feeling that we call this and find AA or KK. Most other hands I'd expect him to shove over with PF.

Hmm, I think Opp played better poker than we did this hand and I fold. I make a note to push my AK's when everyone in front of me has less than 10BBs in the future.

[badgers]

OK, let's do it!

If Taipan is a nit - 2300 chips worth 17.0% of prize pool
If Taipan GAMBOOLS but loses - 1165 chips worth 9.5% of prize pool
If Taipan GAMBOOLS and is victorious - 4835 chips worth 29.9% of prize pool.

Therefore we need to be > 36.7% to win.

Vs. any PP, we are 24% to win.

But, as soon as you put in even the slightest chance of opp having air this is a clear call.

Against any PP, and QJ, JT, QT which imo is a WORST CASE SCENARIO - that is a narrow range for a stop'n'go, and the overcards are hands that we don't dominate, our AK is actually 46%!

Against what is a more realistic range. (AA is there to weight against JJ+, which would either shove back preflop or check the flop most of the time)

AA,TT-88,66-55,AJs,KQs,AJo,KQo

That is the best range I can come up with. We are actually 48% against this range. If you can think of a reasonable range that makes a fold correct here, I will be suprised.

[badgers]

I have a shitty feeling that we call this and find AA or KK. Most other hands I'd expect him to shove over with PF.

If opp has AA/KK here he played the hand horribly. Stop'n'gos are meant to create more fold equity post-flop than you get pre-flop and you really really don't want FE if you have AA obv. Also, most players who slowplay AA pre-flop will continue to slowplay, especially on such a harmless flop.