JJ on bubble

[iolzizlyi]

had just lost half my stack to short stack when i lost a coin flip. so now i am short stack. this is $10 SnG by the way. easy fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t4130)
SB (t2740)
Hero (t2060)
UTG (t4570)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
UTG raises to t600, Button raises to t4105, 1 fold
Hero?

[DetroitHusling101]

Hmm.... It's probally correct to fold here. I'm not sure if i'd have the discipline to do so but your facing a raise and a reraise from the 2 big stacks. I think if it had went fold fold after the UTG raiseer you would shove here. BB is only 200 so you still have 10XBB.
I'm interested in what others think about this situation.

[taipan168]

Yeah I think you have to fold this. I'd give Button credit for a real hand since he shoved over UTG's raise and UTG has button covered. If I was in Button's place my range here would be TT+, AK.

[iolzizlyi]

would i call if i had QQ rather than JJ? or is this limited to KK and AA?

[Jack Sawyer]

Weeeee, teh jacks look pretty...


Fold them. Quickly. Get involved with the big stack on the bubble with AA or KK only.

[taipan168]

would i call if i had QQ rather than JJ? or is this limited to KK and AA?

We can solve this one mathematically. For simplicity's sake I'm going to assume that UTG pretty much always folds (which they would unless they have AA or KK):
- If you fold you will have 1835 chips worth 16.8% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 4795 chips worth 31.0% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out.

Therefore, you need to be (16.8/31) = 54% to win against Button's likely range to make this a good call:
- If opp is shoving over with TT+, AK then QQ is 52.4% to win so you should fold. If I was Button this would be my range.
- If opp is shoving over with 99+, AQ+ then QQ is 57.9% to win so you should call.

Therefore, it is read dependent on how Button has played up to this point - if he/she has been tight I would fold QQ, if they'd been LAGG I would instacall.