Tough spot

[Toadstool]

Villain is 26/10/0.8 but is a regular and not as bad as his stats suggest. From what I've noticed he usually always stabs at the flop if he has the lead pre then gives up on turn, first time I have noticed him check in a meaningful pot after raising pre. He is usually more happy calling down than raising but have seen him spew and overvalue his hands.

He probably sees me as a standard TAG and probably puts me on a pp<9's

GAME #660393809: Texas Hold'em NL $5.00/$10.00 2007-09-19 00:52:06
Table Sabae
Seat 1: Hero ($1,419.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: SweetSteffi ($1,156.50 in chips)
Seat 5: gof ($1,022.00 in chips)
Seat 6: gross ($974.00 in chips)
Seat 8: pokernicklas ($1,025.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Villain ($1,206.75 in chips)
SweetSteffi: Post SB $5.00
gof: Post BB $10.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [4h 3h]
gross: Fold
pokernicklas: Fold
Villain: Raise $40.00
Hero: Call $40.00
SweetSteffi: Fold
gof: Fold
*** FLOP *** [6d 5h 5c]
Villain: Check
HeroBet $70.00
Villain: Call $70.00
*** TURN *** [7c]
Villain: Check
Hero: Bet $180.00
Villain: Raise $540.00
Hero: ?

[gabe]

i would call turn and call any river

because of what he thinks your range is he can be doing this without a boat, right?

[sauce123]

i think its close btw shoving turn and calling/calling

against this guy i like shoving better as hes calling with AA KK QQ JJ TT probably

[pocketfours]

Both gabe and sauce got this one wrong. The correct play here is FOLD.

[gabe]

lol

[IowaSkinsFan]

folding is way tooooo diiiirrrtttttyyyyy.

I probably just shove. Your hand is so underrepped he prob is playing AA in a stupid way and isnt folding it.

[crazycrazy]

sick spot really
i just dont feel he is misplaying overpair ,a5 ? A6clubs ? 67? or he just hit really well...dont know but to be honest i cant fold that straight there and probably get all in right on turn so he dont get chance to make great laydowns on river.

[pocketfours]

lol

You guys are calling stations. His line is saying that he slowplayed the hand or the 7 helped him. If thats the case and he is any kind of solid player then he has either 55, 56, 66 or 77 (he wouldn't c/c flop with an overpair, 23, 48 or 89).

If you think he has AA, then you really aren't giving him a lot of credit. With AA he is offering huge reverse implied odds, so why on earth would he want to give a free card? And does he really love his AA enough to c/r on this connected board?

Ok, so I agree his line looks spewy, but do we want call him down for around 900 more, when we have only put in 300? We can only beat a bluff if this guy knows what he is doing. That's also why I like calling down more than shoving, and if we call the turn, then we absolutely must call the river as well.

One thing that favours calling is that our hand is completely misrepresented after we bluffed the flop and value bet the turn. He might easily put us on 88/99 and think he can steal the pot with AK or AQ (very bad move).

I'm just saying that the bluffing frequency of a 1knl regular is usually not high enough to make calling here profitable.

(disclaimer: this is a very marginal situation though)

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Call/Call>Fold>Shove

[WildBobAA]

Both gabe and sauce got this one wrong. The correct play here is FOLD.

Hahaha this post is so awesome

[Toadstool]

I folded here - I just dont see him playing anything i beat like this, AA/KK etc would surely bet the flop and why on earth would they C/R the turn? surely im not going to call with anything that doesnt beat a big pair and he knows this im sure as he is a regular.

Im sure he semi bluffs with a straight draw on the flop - who wouldnt?

the only thing that makes sense is a flopped fh/4 of a kind. He lost out on money by trying to be tricky, he can remain unpredictable by betting with his flopped FH/4 of a kind. His line look a lot stronger than a simple bet/bet and if he had taken that line he would have stacked me (assuming im behind of course)

Taking into account he leads anything less than a flopped fh and occasionally checks when he either completely whiffs the flop or a flopped fh/4oak - then this boils down to how often he is making a stone cold bluff with air compared to when he has a fh or greater and I dont think the % its air is any greater than say 20% especially considering this guys passive tendencies.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I dont think its that bad a fold but its definetely not the right play. Your hand is so underrepped and he took such a monkey line.

[pocketfours]

Quite frankly, I think you made a world class laydown.

[IMSAKIDD]

Agree its vv close

[sauce123]

I folded here - I just dont see him playing anything i beat like this, AA/KK etc would surely bet the flop and why on earth would they C/R the turn? surely im not going to call with anything that doesnt beat a big pair and he knows this im sure as he is a regular.

Im sure he semi bluffs with a straight draw on the flop - who wouldnt?

the only thing that makes sense is a flopped fh/4 of a kind. He lost out on money by trying to be tricky, he can remain unpredictable by betting with his flopped FH/4 of a kind. His line look a lot stronger than a simple bet/bet and if he had taken that line he would have stacked me (assuming im behind of course)

Taking into account he leads anything less than a flopped fh and occasionally checks when he either completely whiffs the flop or a flopped fh/4oak - then this boils down to how often he is making a stone cold bluff with air compared to when he has a fh or greater and I dont think the % its air is any greater than say 20% especially considering this guys passive tendencies.

hey toadstool- first, thanks for posting, I think this hand has a lot of depth to it.

Ok, I think your analysis of the turn play specially considering this description of the villain makes a lot of sense. I think I was blinded by sheer hand strength and the fishy preflop stats of villain at first.

so if we decide to play for stacks here, it seems clear call/call is better than shoving and its not even close.

my default reaction here is to call/call because we can't put villain on a hand and our hand is just very strong, in an absolute sense. the negative to this is, when we are wrong, we put in approx 900 dollars in on all turn/river combos drawing dead.

You may have made an incredible laydown, either way nh

[IowaSkinsFan]

is there some reason why this can't be AA/KK/AcKc/ XcXc?

Because if there isnt i just dont see how we fold this.

[sauce123]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,100 games 0.015 secs 73,333 games/sec

Board: 6d 5h 5c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.182% 76.18% 00.00% 838 0.00 { 4h3h }
Hand 1: 23.818% 23.82% 00.00% 262 0.00 { AA, 66-55, AcKc, AcQc, 65s, 5c4c, AKo }


---
is this ridiculous?

[pocketfours]

{ AA, 66-55, AcKc, AcQc, 65s, 5c4c, AKo }

You need to add 77.

What it comes down to is the bluffing frequency. Here AA, AcKc, AcQc, and AKo have full weight, although we think he would only very rarely play those hands like this.

[sauce123]

{ AA, 66-55, AcKc, AcQc, 65s, 5c4c, AKo }

You need to add 77.

What it comes down to is the bluffing frequency. Here AA, AcKc, AcQc, and AKo have full weight, although we think he would only very rarely play those hands like this.

yea, i just did a quick "range" just cause i honestly didnt know what the numbers looked like. The big FD combos are in there of course as we think he may check/call them for SD value on flop. I put in AA to rep any time he does this with AA KK QQ JJ (tho this may deserve to be less combos still). I threw in the AKo to represent all combos of bluffs (should i put in more or less bluffs?) and I didn't put in 77 as the OP wrote that he stabs at many pots so it seems least likely of all that he would play a marginal SD bound hand in this fashion. But sure, i suppose it should still be in.

[pocketfours]

I didn't put in 77 as the OP wrote that he stabs at many pots so it seems least likely of all that he would play a marginal SD bound hand in this fashion. But sure, i suppose it should still be in.

You mean on the flop? You did notice that 77 gives the nut full house on the turn? I don't think c/c flop for pot control with that is very strange. 5c4c is not possible because 5c is on the board.

Against a very solid rock type player (perhaps multitabler) it could just as well look like this:

10,530,663 games 4.563 secs 2,307,837 games/sec

Board: 6d 5h 5c 7c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.637% 31.64% 00.00% 3331793 0.00 { 4h3h }
Hand 1: 68.363% 68.37% 00.00% 7200089 0.00 { 77-55, AKs, 65s }

My guess is as good as yours though...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think AA/KK should be in there no doubt about it.

P4's, you have a point that we don't see fd's at full weight, but guess what? We don't have any hand at full weight (77 I think is my best guess). I don't expect him to play any hand the way he did 100% of the time.

Although, from the fact that he didn't c/r the flop. and his raise size on the turn I do lean more towards a boat. But given how weird his line (and my range given that line) is an how aggressive the games are I don't think we can find a fold.

BUT I do commend toadstool on going with his range. If he felt like his range is crushing his straight, than you can't just go "well f--- it I'm probably wrong I'm all in."

[pocketfours]

P4's, you have a point that we don't see fd's at full weight, but guess what? We don't have any hand at full weight (77 I think is my best guess). I don't expect him to play any hand the way he did 100% of the time

Of course not, but we can still put 100% weight on the most likely hands as long as we adjust the weighting of the less likely hands accordingly. Say he plays 77 like this 5 times out of 10 and AKs 1/10, then we can give 77 100% weight and AKs 20%...

[Genitruc]

crazy hand my mind just asploded a bit