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Well i went and did a Pokerstove for Hero's equity vs. Button's c/r range in hand 2.
Board: Qs 8s 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.824% 37.73% 00.09% 4856 12.00 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 62.176% 62.08% 00.09% 7990 12.00 { KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }
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Board: Qs 8s 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.103% 28.04% 00.07% 4996 12.00 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 71.897% 71.83% 00.07% 12800 12.00 { KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s7s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }
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Somewhere between 30-40% equity on the flop. It looks like once we bet the flop and get raised we should shove a non spade turn.
But we lose a pot sized bet every time villain has a flush and calls our "donk" shove. And if we check we risk giving villain a free card IP. So I think since Hero is OOP we should take a passive line on the flop. Thoughts?
But if Hero were IP we could bet/call a check/raise on the flop and put villain AI on a non spade turn (assuming villain bets the turn 95% of the time after a check/raise) and it would be profitable.
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