Bubble Situations (6.50)

[DetroitHusling101]

So i got wiz. It's helping alot with my push/fold when shortstacked. Im on a pretty bad downswing though , mainly due to crappy beats , 3 otm in a row last night getting my money in 70+ favorite (about 95% on the turn on one. idiot pushes into my JJ with nothing , k2 and spikes a k on the river)
I could go on and on about the bad beats but this isnt the forum for that.
And i got pokeracehud but damn thing isn't working right!!

Dont i pretty much have to gamble here???? Obv no F.E. but if i fold ill have less than 2bb and still no f.e.
Wiz is saying if Villian is opening about 30% in this situation than go for it (which seems reasonable given he's the big stack and im the miniscule in the blind)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t3340)
Hero (t765)
UTG (t5800)
Button (t3595)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K.
UTG raises to t600, 2 folds, Hero raises to t765, UTG calls t165.

Flop: (t1630) 7, 3, 3 (2 players)

Turn: (t1630) J (2 players)

River: (t1630) Q (2 players)

Final Pot: t1630

And i know alot of replies will be "shouldnt of gotten this low" , well reviewing all my hands this is THE only opportunity i missed. And tweaking with wiz sb or bb has to call less than 30% to make this a push. BB is getting 2:1 on the call..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP (t3340)
Hero (t765)
SB (t5600)
BB (t1030)
UTG (t2765)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
3 folds, SB raises to t500, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t400

[DetroitHusling101]

ehhh first hand if i fold ill have 2.5bbs in the sb. not less than 2 like i stated at first.

[taipan168]

If UTG has been bullying the table on the bubble with the big stack I grit my teeth and shove over. UTG has to be raising 31% (44+,A3o+,A2s+,K7o+,K5s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+) or wider to make shoving over +EV and that's before taking into account the fact that ICM overvalues very short stacks.

Actually, given the fact that you've got >25% of your stack in the pot due to the BB already, I shove over here every time.

Second hand is an easy fold for me. Are you sure you had no other spots? Maybe post the hands prior to this to be sure.

[DetroitHusling101]

I guess this was stupid to even post since i already answered myself in the post (sngwiz refrences). Just needed somewhere to vent because this 16 BI downswing is starting to annoy me. Especially after getting wiz and pahud (which WONT WORKK!K!K!KK!) , and being taught a new way to review your session afterwards.
Gotta think long term though not short term!

[DetroitHusling101]

Actually, given the fact that you've got >25% of your stack in the pot due to the BB already, I shove over here every time.

Thanks for the reassurance.
Was hoping it wasnt horrible!