83 getting huge odds. $25+2

[AlexMorris]

Do I really call off 70% of my stack with 83 in this spot, or do you think folding is the right play? Top 3 get paid.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t1605)
Hero (t2040)
UTG (t2455)
MP (t4120)
CO (t1550)
Button (t1730)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 8.
2 folds, CO raises to t1500, 1 fold, SB raises to t1555, Hero [calls or folds]???

(NOTE: Pot is currently 3955 and it will cost me 955 to call)

[TwoKicker]

OMG FOLD

[CoccoBill]

What TwoKicker said. Use pot odds to decide when you have a marginal call, not as the primary guideline. This call is not marginal, it's horrible, and the odds are not even close to good enough when you're dropping from 3rd stack to short stack. I'd consider calling here with something like 44+,A8+,KT+,QJs+.

[GatorJH]

Do you really want to see all 5 cards against two opponents with 83o? This is an insta fold all day, every day.

[drmcboy]

Should I have open pushed my 83o the hand before this one?

fyp

yes

[AlexMorris]

So you're saying the 4:1 pot odds don't justify a call with any two cards? Awesome, I wasn't sure which way this goes since I don't normally play turbos (which means I rarely get to these blinds with this many people left). Thanks!

[donkbee]

Like drmcboy said, though, you absolutely needed to push before this hand. You should probably push UTG with almost any two when you're at around 5BB.

If you somehow got short from a lost AI or something, though, I can see how this situation would arise.

How are the $27 turbos these days anyway? I was looking at the turbos the other day and it made me wonder.

[drmcboy]

So you're saying the 4:1 pot odds don't justify a call with any two cards?

download poker stove and run 83 against some ranges. You'll get close to 4/1, but you probably need more to justify the risk to your $$ EV. See Tai's ICM post.

BTW this isn't nearly as clear a fold as everyone posting here thinks, which is why you should be shoving the hand before this. We have about the right price agaisnt a random hand and (AK,22+), which is a reasonable range.

Use pot odds to decide when you have a marginal call, not as the primary guideline.

Cocco, you are better than this. Say we have 601 chips before posting, should we still ignore those pot odds since the call 'is not marginal, it's horrible'?

[CoccoBill]

Use pot odds to decide when you have a marginal call, not as the primary guideline.

Cocco, you are better than this. Say we have 601 chips before posting, should we still ignore those pot odds since the call 'is not marginal, it's horrible'?

Absolutely not. Being the short stack would flip the situation on its head. This wouldn't be a marginal call, it would be an easy one just because of our stack size compared to the blinds and the other stacks, our cards would become irrelevant. Granted, I should have been more specific, I'm just having trouble explaining this (probably because I'm quite often struggling with making this a logical process myself). There are quite a few variables to consider in these situations, some of them are or can become "overriding", as in while some factors would say it's a call/fold/push, this overriding rule by itself negates them. Dan lists these 11 factors in HOH1:

1. What's the status of the tournament?
2. How many players are at your table?
3. Who are the players at your table?
4. How does your stack compare to the blinds and antes?
5. How big are the other stacks at your table?
6. Where do you sit in relation to the aggressive and passive players?
7. What bets have been made in front of you?
8. How many active players are left after you act?
9. What are the pot odds?
10. What is your position at the table after the flop?
11. What are your cards?

They are obviously not in any kind of order of importance here, but most of the time I'm putting the pot odds near the end. If someone can put those in the correct order together with the values and situations when they become overriding, I'd be interested to hear.

[Jack Sawyer]

4:1 against a single opponent, you have him covered (by a lot), his tournament life on the line, and your cards are suited: yes

4:1 against a schoolbus of oponents, you have the raggiest of rags, and they obviously suck: no

[drmcboy]

Poker is a game of making profitable bets and the odds are paramount at all times. You need a COMPELLING reason to play in a way that does not jibe with the odds you're getting/giving- typically that's the bubble.

All of the factors you list go into whether a bet is profitable or not.

You have AdX on a XXX all D flop and someone moves in. If he's a total rock, you assume he has a set/bigger flush and call if you're getting ~2/1. If he's crazy, you call getting 1/1 or worse because you might have the best hand and the best draw, or he has something like a pair plus a worse draw and you're a flip.

You (may) fold K9s UTG and raise K9s on the CO because the two blinds are tight and they fold most of the time, so risking 3 bets to win 1.5 is going to work out. Or you might do just the opposite because everyone calls LP raises now but runs away from UTG raises. Or you might do both because they suck post flop and you're a huge favorite every bet you or they put in afterwards.

In general, the most important thing is always pot odds, implied odds, or the payout. Stack size dictates which odds number you care 'more' about. It's great to call with 87s if you're getting 3/1 against an average raising hand, but it's a lot better it you have 100 BBs behind than 10, because it should be easy for you to figure out when to put the other 97 it, but it'll be hard to figure out what to do with the other 7.

I would assume, all things being equal, if I told you you could have AA once and only once during a tourney, you would take them at the largest possible blind level you'll still be alive at, rather than the first hand. That's because you're usually laying odds with deep stacks and AA but boy are you getting them when the stacks are shallow.

Notice how everyone here defends the fold not with math but with adages and ZOMG FODLDLDDL! That's because they get embarassed when they put money in with bad hands and other people at the table laugh or say they are bad. Secretly they are worried those guys are right. They don't understand why they play the way they do, they just know it's 'right' to raise AK and fold K2. They either won't or can't think about why that makes sense.


Getting back to this hand -
What the difference in equity is between

44+,A8+,KT+,QJs+.

and 83 in this spot?

And which of the factors you list is the one that makes you want to ignore the pot odds we're getting?

[TLR]

You are getting 4:1 odds, so you need to have at least 20% to win in order to justify it
83o vs KQ vs A7 is 20%
83o vs TT vs A7 is 10%
83o vs 2 random hands is about 22% (Monte Carlo)
83o vs Jto vs 66 is 15%


You simply dont have the correct pot odds here

[AlexMorris]

How are the $27 turbos these days anyway? I was looking at the turbos the other day and it made me wonder.

So far, they seem like donkfests. In my sample of 12 SNGs, they are miles easier than the $22's. Of course, that's an irrelevant sample size, and it might just be that I'm not so good at post-flop play. Could Taipan or some of the other $27 regulars chime in?

[AlexMorris]

83o vs Jto vs 66 is 15%

Thanks for the breakdown. I didn't realize the mid pair shafted me that much (thought I was still near 20%).

[CoccoBill]

As always, great points drmcboy. I'm not trying to argue that "odds" in general are not important, obv they're the most important factor in making decisions. Pot odds are a small subset of these, and while an important part of the whole picture, there are far more important ones. Yes, basically all those 11 listed factors just affect the odds, nothing else. My main point, which is what I initially posted, was just to say you can't ignore the 10 other ones and just look at the pot odds.

What the difference in equity is between

44+,A8+,KT+,QJs+.

and 83 in this spot?

Ouch. Anyone willing to calculate these?

And which of the factors you list is the one that makes you want to ignore the pot odds we're getting?

No single factor, but points 3,4,5,7 and 11 say we should fold. Only points 1,2,8 and 9 say call. 5 against 4 according to my scientific formula so a clear fold.

[taipan168]

How are the $27 turbos these days anyway? I was looking at the turbos the other day and it made me wonder.

So far, they seem like donkfests. In my sample of 12 SNGs, they are miles easier than the $22's. Of course, that's an irrelevant sample size, and it might just be that I'm not so good at post-flop play. Could Taipan or some of the other $27 regulars chime in?

Sorry, I missed this post in the broader thread.

I've played about 600 $27s now. I'd say they are definitely beatable, particularly if your ICM push/fold game is good. There are still a LOT of donks at this level who will stack off with TPNK or a flush draw and probably between 1-3 multitablers (not all are good) at each table. I'd say it's about 1/3 total donks, 1/3 semi-donks and 1/3 good players. Seemed like a pretty reasonable gap between the $27s and $60s (although the $60 turbos had their fair share of donks too).

My ROI fluctuates between 8% and 15% depending on where I am on the variance curve. Speaking of which, expect high variance though (as in all turbo games).

[donkbee]

Back when I played turbos, I found no difference at all between 6.50s and 16s, a small difference between 16s and 27s, and a fairly big difference between 27s and 60s. I've gotten the idea that the difference between 16s and 27s is a lot more than it used to be, and as such there is probably even a larger difference between 27s and 60s. I agree that they are all beatable.

[Pulpstar]

Some nice dead money in there cos of stuff like this

PokerStars Game #12928485182: Tournament #65609295, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/10/29 - 22:17:12 (ET)
Table '65609295 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: juandog111 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: Tony J66 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: doub1eag1e (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: SARA PEZ (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: noleman55 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Pulpstar (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: Rosinviolin (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: ThatFeltGood (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: MiBender (1500 in chips)
Tony J66: posts small blind 10
doub1eag1e: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pulpstar [Ac Qd]
SARA PEZ: folds
noleman55: folds
Pulpstar: raises 40 to 60
Rosinviolin: folds
ThatFeltGood: raises 120 to 180
MiBender: folds
juandog111: folds
Tony J66: raises 460 to 640
doub1eag1e: folds
Pulpstar: folds
ThatFeltGood: calls 460
*** FLOP *** [2s 6c 2d]
Tony J66: bets 860 and is all-in
ThatFeltGood: calls 860 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [2s 6c 2d] [9d]
*** RIVER *** [2s 6c 2d 9d] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Tony J66: shows [Ad Ts] (a pair of Deuces)
ThatFeltGood: shows [Ks Kd] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
ThatFeltGood collected 3080 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3080 | Rake 0
Board [2s 6c 2d 9d Qc]
Seat 1: juandog111 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Tony J66 (small blind) showed [Ad Ts] and lost with a pair of Deuces
Seat 3: doub1eag1e (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: SARA PEZ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: noleman55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Pulpstar folded before Flop
Seat 7: Rosinviolin folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: ThatFeltGood showed [Ks Kd] and won (3080) with two pair, Kings and Deuces
Seat 9: MiBender folded before Flop (didn't bet)

xD