$27 - TT after regular raise

[mattiesmat]

How is this?
He was a winning multitabling regular.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) by Hand Converter CG

BB (t2545)
UTG (t2170)
Hero (t1520)
MP2 (t3370)
CO (t585)
Button (t3070)
SB (t240)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Th, Tc.
UTG raises to t450, here folds.

[DetroitHusling101]

I dont mind it.
Would shoving over be horrible?

[badgers]

VGF imo. You have 0 FE here vs. a good reg, and other players may wake up with a hand.

[taipan168]

Ya, I agree with the fold too, considering a) your read on UTG and b) the fact there are 5 players still to act.

[mattiesmat]

JJ?

[taipan168]

JJ?

JJ I'm shoving for sure.

[badgers]

AK?

[badgers]

Actually scrap that AK is a clear shove methinks. Would be much more fun nearer the bubble.

[taipan168]

AK?

AK would be an easy shove for me here because a) we gain value from seeing all 5 cards b) AK actually fares better against JJ+ and c) opp does raise some hands that we dominate (AQ/AJ).

AJ I definitely fold, AQ is really interesting.

[badgers]

Can't we fold AQ pretty quickly because he almost never folds, almost never has worse, there isn't much dead money AND there are players yet to act?

[drmcboy]

JJ has the same equity vs TT+, AJ+ as TT has against 88+, AJ+.

You all just jump to winning player = open folds 99. I'm a winning player and I would never open fold 88/99 here.

[badgers]

JJ has the same equity vs TT+, AJ+ as TT has against 88+, AJ+.

You all just jump to winning player = open folds 99. I'm a winning player and I would never open fold 88/99 here.

But if he has 88+, AJ we're still screwed against that range with little fold equity and hardly any dead money.

[drmcboy]

my point is Tai is shoving JJ but folding TT, I don't know about you. The only reason you would shove JJ but not TT is because you put him on TT+, AJ+, with the TT discounted since we have 2.

TT is 50% against that range, I don't know what is 'screwed' to you. There is 1/3 our stack in the pot.

[taipan168]

my point is Tai is shoving JJ but folding TT, I don't know about you. The only reason you would shove JJ but not TT is because you put him on TT+, AJ+, with the TT discounted since we have 2.

TT is 50% against that range, I don't know what is 'screwed' to you. There is 1/3 our stack in the pot.

Meh I don't hate shoving TT in this spot, but to me it's a close one. If we were in the BB I would instacall. What tips the balance for me is the 5 players left to act, rather than just UTG's raising range.

I would definitely fold 99 though.

[mattiesmat]

I put him on 99+ AJ+.

[drmcboy]

What tips the balance for me is the 5 players left to act, rather than just UTG's raising range.

I was thinking about this last night because I realized I don't really know what the numbers are. I think we can assume most people will fold anything < JJ, AK+ here (after we shove), many probably would fold the AK and or the JJ. So check my math:

AA 6 ways
KK 6 ways
QQ 6 ways
JJ 6 ways
AK 16 ways

40 hands they will call with

total hands minus our two = 1225

40/1225 = ~3.26 %

so %3.26 * 5 players = 16 % chance we'll get called behind.

We are 50/50 vs AK,JJ+.

If we take out AK/JJ

18/1225 = ~1.5%, just over 7% chance we get called

We are 80/20 vs QQ+

Now we assume original raiser folds all hands except... hmmm. He calls with QQ+, what about AK/JJ?

OK before I do more someone make sure I didn't screw up any numbers