Tough spot pretty late 75$ tourney

[KillThatInfidel]

I was 15/65 and then this hand came up.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3991054891: $18,000 Guarantee (29824524), Table 30 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:24:23 ET - 2007/10/28
Seat 1: NRSEHONEYBEE (14,384)
Seat 2: pokersafado (17,475)
Seat 3: MargheritAA (10,780)
Seat 4: Kidneyhawks (5,505)
Seat 5: cincher (12,257)
Seat 6: fatass00 (20,647)
Seat 7: GBIT272 (15,482)
Seat 8: dsummiteer (15,341)
Seat 9: HERO (15,035)
NRSEHONEYBEE antes 75
pokersafado antes 75
MargheritAA antes 75
Kidneyhawks antes 75
cincher antes 75
fatass00 antes 75
GBIT272 antes 75
dsummiteer antes 75
HERO antes 75
dsummiteer posts the small blind of 300
HERO posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [6d 3d]
NRSEHONEYBEE calls 600
pokersafado folds
MargheritAA folds
Kidneyhawks folds
cincher folds
fatass00 calls 600
GBIT272 calls 600
dsummiteer calls 300
HERO checks
NRSEHONEYBEE is feeling confused
*** FLOP *** [Kd 6c 4d]
NRSEHONEYBEE is feeling happy
dsummiteer checks
HERO bets 1,500
NRSEHONEYBEE raises to 7,200
fatass00 has 15 seconds left to act
fatass00 raises to 19,972, and is all in
GBIT272 folds
dsummiteer folds
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO has requested TIME
HERO ?????????????

I think this is realllly reallly tough. What do you guys do??

[Evansgambit]

Don't try the semi-bluff when you have no fold equity. You still have 3 players left to act behind you. Someone is bound to have top pair at least.

Fatasso is doing some kind of semi-bluff, most likely a flush draw. So your hand is no good. There was no preflop raise, so a wacky flopped 2 pairs such as K6 or K4 becomes possible. Since you have no overcards, your two pair draw could be no good. Your trip draw with 6's may be no good also, in light of the possible flopped two pairs above.

I think you really have to fold here for your tournament life. You really don't have any of them covered in chips. And to make the call, you can't Fatasso on that flush draw, but that doesn't mak sense - although there is a possibility of a slowplayed AA before the flop. Your hand also won't look as good up against a set or 4 or 6. There is just too much strength here for your borderline breakeven draw.

[Deanglow]

Fold you're diamonds probably aren't good.

[Jack Sawyer]

Fold you're diamonds probably aren't good.

I was thinking this too.

Fold, its a limped pot

[KoRnholio]

Yeah I fold too. We still have a good sized stack and aren't committed to the pot at all.

[drmcboy]

I would usually look to CR with this many people in the pot.

As played, fold.

[AApoker]

This is a really crappy situation to be in, normally I'd be looking to get all my chips in the pot with a pair + flush draw... However given the action in front of you it just stinks of a bigger flush draw, perhaps a set... You really haven't put much money into the pot, as played fold.

[chardrian]

I would usually look to CR with this many people in the pot.

As played, fold.

I concur (it also let's you get out of the hand for free if things go crazy).

[Sprayed]

Check and either look for a free card or raise when some one bets.

[KillThatInfidel]

I folded. They got all in on that flop and showed KQo and AKo, and would have ended up hitting on the turn. I still think it was a good fold.

[Sprayed]

You know, when I run the numbers, they have to be pretty tight for this not to be +EV call. If you put them on the following range: KK+,66,AKs,KQs,AKo,KQo, you are 45% to win. Looks like you have the pot odds to justify a call.

The only way you are not a favorite here or getting the right odds to call is if you put them on a very tight range like: KK+,66. If you give one of them the wider range and the other the narrow range, you are still getting odds to call. However, this is all said with your tourney life on the line.

If you had more info and you were desperate for chips, I think you call here. Given the situation, I think the fold is fine. But, I wouldn't fault you for taking a possible edge and calling.

[KillThatInfidel]

shouldnt the range also include Adxd or 44 or K4, K6, maybe the odd 64 or Qdxd or Jdxd or something?

[drmcboy]

yeah sprayed there have to be a bunch of diamond draws in there, that range is way off -KdQd is much more likely than KsQs, and where is 64/44? Given a limped pot random (better) diamond draws and the lower sets make a lot more sense than big broadway hands.

[chardrian]

Folding and then seeing the two hands in the range that you could beat, doesn't mean that your fold was bad.

[Sprayed]

shouldnt the range also include Adxd or 44 or K4, K6, maybe the odd 64 or Qdxd or Jdxd or something?

I think that this is too broad without reads. Would you really suspect K4 or K6 from someone other than the blinds without a good read like he's an any two donkey player?

[Sprayed]

yeah sprayed there have to be a bunch of diamond draws in there, that range is way off -KdQd is much more likely than KsQs, and where is 64/44? Given a limped pot random (better) diamond draws and the lower sets make a lot more sense than big broadway hands.

Ok, I was just trying to show a range fairly tight. Is this any better:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,777,974 games 0.483 secs 28,525,826 games/sec

Board: Kd 6c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.255% 50.15% 01.10% 6909786 152150.33 { 6d3d }
Hand 1: 24.372% 23.52% 00.85% 3240761 117257.83 { KK+, 66, 44, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.372% 23.52% 00.85% 3240761 117257.83 { KK+, 66, 44, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AKo }

The wider their range the more ahead you are. Against one player you're almost 70% against this range.

[drmcboy]

you're putting 43s in, that doesn't make sense. change them all to diamonds, these guys don't have Jx9x in their range, it's ONLY Jd9d.

[Sprayed]

you're putting 43s in, that doesn't make sense. change them all to diamonds, these guys don't have Jx9x in their range, it's ONLY Jd9d.

I guess that I'm stove illiterate because I can't get it to allow me to select the particular suit. Only "s". For example "J9s". That is when I choose the hands from the "preflop" tab. But, let's say that it's close like 45%. Don't you still have odds to call since you are probably getting better than 2-1 on your money? I'm not saying call, just justifying that it would be an ok call if OP would have made the call. Also, OP has a 10M stack so it's not like he's in awesome shape.

[drmcboy]

Yes, if we were 45% it's an easy call.

Board: Kd 6c 4d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	33.912%  	33.91% 	00.00% 	          6737 	        0.00   { AdTd }
Hand 1: 	12.471%  	10.98% 	01.49% 	          2182 	      295.50   { 6d3d }
Hand 2: 	53.617%  	52.13% 	01.49% 	         10356 	      295.50   { 66, 44, KQs, 64s, KQo, 64o }

Board: Kd 6c 4d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	34.375%  	34.38% 	00.00% 	         61771 	        0.00   { AdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 8d7d }
Hand 1: 	12.675%  	12.04% 	00.64% 	         21631 	     1146.00   { 6d3d }
Hand 2: 	52.950%  	52.31% 	00.64% 	         94003 	     1146.00   { 66, 44, AKs, KQs, KTs, K6s, 64s, AKo, KQo, KTo, K6o, 64o }

[Sprayed]

Yes, if we were 45% it's an easy call.

Board: Kd 6c 4d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	33.912%  	33.91% 	00.00% 	          6737 	        0.00   { AdTd }
Hand 1: 	12.471%  	10.98% 	01.49% 	          2182 	      295.50   { 6d3d }
Hand 2: 	53.617%  	52.13% 	01.49% 	         10356 	      295.50   { 66, 44, KQs, 64s, KQo, 64o }

Board: Kd 6c 4d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	34.375%  	34.38% 	00.00% 	         61771 	        0.00   { AdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 8d7d }
Hand 1: 	12.675%  	12.04% 	00.64% 	         21631 	     1146.00   { 6d3d }
Hand 2: 	52.950%  	52.31% 	00.64% 	         94003 	     1146.00   { 66, 44, AKs, KQs, KTs, K6s, 64s, AKo, KQo, KTo, K6o, 64o }

Good example. I guess I'm running the ranges wrong. I'm just selecting from the preflop tab on stove for hands that I'm against. I need to be more specific I guess.