Line check in 24+2 tourney

[KillThatInfidel]

Full Tilt Poker Game #3990796111: $17,000 Guarantee (29821324), Table 37 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:31:11 ET - 2007/10/28
Seat 1: I'm the bestest (19,628)
Seat 2: Simockaman (6,420)
Seat 3: No I am bestestest (15,996)
Seat 4: almost69 (7,120)
Seat 5: JuiceMeUp (2,371)
Seat 6: pufarin6 (9,748)
Seat 7: gizmos666 (16,763)
Seat 8: LVDONKEYKONG (12,523)
Seat 9: delifish (6,765)
I'm the bestest antes 50
Simockaman antes 50
No I am bestestest antes 50
almost69 antes 50
JuiceMeUp antes 50
pufarin6 antes 50
gizmos666 antes 50
LVDONKEYKONG antes 50
delifish antes 50
Simockaman posts the small blind of 250
No I am bestestest posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to No I am bestestest [7d 7h]
almost69 folds
JuiceMeUp folds
pufarin6 folds
gizmos666 folds
LVDONKEYKONG folds
delifish folds
I'm the bestest raises to 1,350
Simockaman has 15 seconds left to act
Simockaman folds
No I am bestestest calls 850
*** FLOP *** [Qs Th Qh]
No I am bestestest checks
I'm the bestest has 15 seconds left to act
I'm the bestest bets 1,866
No I am bestestest calls 1,866
*** TURN *** [Qs Th Qh] [4d]
No I am bestestest checks
I'm the bestest has 15 seconds left to act
I'm the bestest has requested TIME
I'm the bestest bets 3,500
No I am bestestest calls 3,500
*** RIVER *** [Qs Th Qh 4d] [2h]
No I am bestestest checks
I'm the bestest checks

Like it, dont like it?

[edited at both bestests' requests]

[AApoker]

I repop him pre, if not I'm playing it for set value especially on that board. I figure you are ahead of a typical button raising range with 77, and given that you two have fairly large stacks he is going to be careful when he messes with you. Also it sends the message back off my blind. I raise it to 5500 and fold to a push. I'm probably shoving that flop if I just get smooth called.

[Deanglow]

I dislike pretty much every street. If you are often a station postflop, then just make a big RR preflop and fold to a shove. I would checkraise the flop (this leaves room for us to fold). I would also bet the river when the scared card hits.

[drmcboy]

it's just such a bad flop, he has a ton of outs if it missed him. I can only see hanging around if you're going to try and move him off the hand, you can't call twice for value.

[mcatdog]

I dislike pretty much every street. If you are often a station postflop, then just make a big RR preflop and fold to a shove. I would checkraise the flop (this leaves room for us to fold). I would also bet the river when the scared card hits.

Call preflop vs. RR preflop and call shove is debatable but both of them are >>>>>>> RR preflop and fold to a shove.

I would fold the flop and be unhappy about it. That's not a good flop for you.

[chardrian]

I raise it to 5500 and fold to a push.

I'm not sure you can do that here - after you make that raise and he repops you will be getting better than 2:1 (I think).

I actually don't mind how u played it - but what were you going to do if he fired a last barrel on the river?

I would also be very tempted to checkraise with a push on that turn given your chip stacks.

[KillThatInfidel]

Probably would have called a small bet, but would have folded to anything large. He showed me 62 offsuit and i took down the pot. I think this hand was a big moment in this tourney, which i ended up taking down 2nd in.

[D3scride]

Lol @ this hand. Tanglewizard is my IRL friend and we were discussing this hand over MSN.

Given that his range is likely to be fairly wide in this spot, I would have rather seen a reraise preflop.

[tanglewizard]

Hey Kill, how come it says your name is Hero when in my FTP hand histories, it says your name is No I am the bestestest. I'm new to this site, just created an account tonight. Regarding this hand, I think you played it horribly. Are you calling a river 3rd barrel here too? What do you do when K, J, A fall. Are you hoping you have the best hand and hoping that I don't hit any of my cards (which could very likely be over 7)? I do get cards you know, even though I have a wide range here. Also, there is a flush draw out there. You are basically letting me control the hand in position and letting me draw to whatever I want and take free cards if I want.

Anyway, I don't know if this was a real turning point in the tournament. I would have been chip leader had this hand not happened just when final table started:

Full Tilt (Tournament): Unknown, 9 players
Sun Oct 28 05:30:16 MDT 2007
Powered by Poker Academy:

larrold ($248,282)
allin125 ($86,398)
hutchb21 ($158,330)
bluntfire420 ($79,262)
No I am the bestestest ($121,388)
I am the bestest ($132,922)
Joe23on tilt ($126,307)
Foomanchoo11 ($64,560)
tafokints ($92,551)

tafokints is the button.

Precards:
Everyone antes $750, larrold posts the small blind $3,000, allin125 posts the big blind $6,000.

Preflop: I am the bestest is dealt Ad Qc (9 active)
hutchb21 calls $6,000, 2 folds, tanglewizard raises to $24,000, 5 folds, hutchb21 calls $18,000.

Flop: Kh 5d Td ($63,750, 2 active)
hutchb21 checks, I am the bestest checks.

Turn: Kh 5d Td Jc ($63,750, 2 active)
hutchb21 bets $42,000, I am the bestest raises to $108,172 (all-in), hutchb21 calls $66,172.

River: Kh 5d Td Jc Kc ($280,094, 2 players)

Final Pot: $280,094
I am the bestest, net: -$132,922, Lost at showdown, has Ad Qc (an Ace High Straight)
hutchb21, net: $147,172, Won at showdown, has Kd Th (a Full House, Kings over Tens)

Also, you ran really well, won all flips and sucked out. I don't know if you should attribute that to skill.

gg

[edited by the mod with his schlong taped to his thigh]

[mcatdog]

Apparently he was ahead of your range on the turn.

Board: Qs Th Qh 4d
Dead:

Hand 0: 65.529% 65.36% 00.17% 29763 79.00 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 34.471% 34.30% 00.17% 15619 79.00 { random }

Also, I don't know if KillThatInfidel has ever posted his Full Tilt screen name on this forum, but if not, then you coming here and outing him is incredibly scummy, especially when all he did was ask for advice, not insult you. I think you should delete this account and go find some other forum where outing someone's screen name is considered acceptable behavior.

[chardrian]

I don't mind him coming here at all.

The fact that he "outed" him really isn't that big of a deal considering that KTI outed the villain by posting the thread in the first place.

I do think tangle is missing the point though. He wasn't saying this was the most important hand in the tourney - he was saying this was the most important hand FOR HIM.

As far as him supposedly playing it horribly - I disagree. 77 is a tough hand to play, and with the chip stacks you guys had, KTI (Hero) was simply trying to control the pot with what he thought was most probably the best hand, but not worth the risk of going busto on. There are definitely other ways to play it - like I said, I am usually check/pushing that turn, but I take risks that others aren't willing to make, and that doesn't mean my style of play is necessarily better or worse than anyone elses.

[tanglewizard]

mcatdog,

Like chardrian said, the reason for me "outing" him was because he "outed" me. Now, if he didn't provide the results (62-off) afterwards, it wouldn't be so bad but now since he's letting everyone know that sometimes I have a huge range and will multi-barrel OTB (of course a subset of everyone includes my opponents at FullTilt).

Also, there is an element to this that you are unfamiliar with (that being, that OP was quite an ass to me during this tourney).

Also, you said that my range here is random. This is definitely NOT true (although it looks like it from the 62-off hand that he describes). My range is not something that is static and that I look up in a table or a book. My button raises depend on lots of things including, stack sizes, how often I've been stealing so far, how defensive blinds are, how good blinds are, how often blinds 3bet me, table dynamics, recent and past history, etc. I simply do not just openraise ATC when folded to me on the button. Also, even if I had a random hand, and he has more than 50% equity, that still does not mean that the best line is to call down. This is such a draw-heavy board and ever overs are outs for an opponent, you just cannot profitably call-down, even against someone who raises ATC and multi-barrels. Also, assuming I had a random hand, he is still ahead on the river (by more than turn now even though a FD came in). Does that mean that if I shove or make a huge bet that he should call because he's ahead of a random hand? Don't you see how easily I (Villain) can get paid of with very very thin value bets when he plays scared/passively against me? Another thing that you didn't factor into your assumption of me having a random hand is that you assumed I will fire two barrels with every hand as well. You don't think there are any hands that I check behind on flop or turn?
Also, if you assume I raise ATC, why shouldn't he 3bet me PF with a fairly strong hand here, and then reconsider depending on my actions. Another thing to consider is that I may fire another barrel on the river (not as likely, but sometimes; notice that I actually hit a pair here and had SOME showdown value in case he had straight draws). Should he call another river bet if say, the Jh, Kh, or Ah fell on the river?

Basically, my point is that this line is very weak, and you do nothing to discover where you are in the hand. You hope your opponent has completely missed and will completely miss turn and river cards. He should have taken a more aggressive line at some point. Even donking the flop, turn might be +EV against me assuming I raise ATC and that I give up often enough. Also, if he actually thinks he has the best hand and knows that I'm aggressive and capable of raising a donkbet on the flop, he bet donk/3bet shove, or c/r shove or something like that. Why give me a chance to catch up and outdraw him, or simply take him to value-town.

chardrian,

I understand now what you mean by this being the most important hand for him. Also, I don't mind you check/shove line against me on THIS turn card. Obviously, if he was good on the flop, then he's good on this turn (<7) unless I have exactly 44. Also, since I have a high percentage of c-bets, this will be good against me most often. Also, with our stack sizes, it would be very hard for me to call with a T, JJ, PP <99, and maybe even KK, AA (it would depend on how I thought he'd play a queen). I still think that the c/c on the flop isn't necessarily the best if he thinks he's good here. There are many more scary cards that can come on the turn (namely, any overs and any heart) which basically makes his turn decision much more difficult and much more marginal since he could have been outdrawn.

Anyway, the way to determine the best line (using assumptions about Villain) is simply to compute the EV for different actions on the flop, turn, and possibly river. This would be a lot of work to compute. However, I plan on writing a program to create scenarios like these where you input stacksizes, potsize, flop, and you estimate different actions (based on your knowledge of the opponent) with corresponding turn card ranges and villain's hand ranges for those actions, as well as river (if reached). Then the program would compute the best line at every decision point (given your assumptions and approximations). Basically think of this as a tree where you have different nodes and the leaf nodes represent the end of the action and the program traverses the tree calculating the EV on that line (traversal). Then, at each node, you simply choose the line which has the max EV. This program would also help with balancing your own play and becoming less exploitable to opponents while being able to calculate the best way of being exploitative (or perhaps suboptimal exploitative play which is more balanced). Anyway, when I get some free time at some point, I'd love to write this program and think it would be of huge assistance to any poker student (esp. the less mathematical ones).

[KillThatInfidel]

I like it how you said i played horrible when I have almost the same profit in MTTs in only 2/3 of wat you have played and much more profit in SNGs. Im not saying im great, just much more profitable than you. And, i did not run "great" as you stated. I lost 88 vs A7 for 112k all in pre w/ 7 left at FT that left me with 41k at 4k/8k blinds. To come back from being that low will always take luck. After that i won A7 vs Q10, then AK vs 1010, and finally A9 vs JJ w/20BB in a blind vs blind situation. But i lost A6cc vs 44 all in pre during HU for chiplead.
I looked in my HH and fail to see a point i was an "ass" to you. I only said something to some guy that was insulting me after he busted when we were 3 handed or something. And thanks a lot there for saying my name, i put hero because i didnt want my name disclosed, as you knew of course. So thanks for that douchebag.

Finally, if you are here to be helpful (which i seriously doubt), i can post my full HH and you can comment on it, and try to help.

P.S=The bad beat forum is not here, go vent somewhere else.

[chardrian]

Did u really put hero in because you didn't want your name disclosed or because that is simply what the hand converter does??

I honestly don't understand these dickwagging contests (maybe it's cuz I tape mine to my thigh).

A post like this could actually help both the original poster (hero) and the so-called villain if they dropped their pretenses and actually tried to learn something. Instead both of you are being retards - "I am better than you because you should have repopped me if you thought I was weak"... "No, I am better than you, because I knew you were weak" blah blah blah. I am better than everyone when I see the cards after the hand is finished.

Understanding why your opponents play was not as bad as you first thought will help your games a lot. Understanding why your play was not as good as you first thought will do the same. To do so, you need to stop looking at the results and focus simply on the play.

p.s. responding that that's exactly what you were trying to do, proves to me that you haven't gotten the point.

[KillThatInfidel]

I didnt put this thru the converter, just changed my name to hero because i didnt want it disclosed. Can u replace my name by &*%#&*(%# or something?

[mcatdog]

Tanglewizard,

No one outed you. Outing someone means saying saying "This poster on FTR = this screen name on FTP". Some people want to keep their screen name secret because otherwise people could read their posts and know how to play against them. 2+2 bans people who out other posters because if they didn't then some people might be reluctant to post strategy advice.

I was joking about your range being random BTW, and if he was an ass to you in the table chat then I apologize for my tone before.

LOL at taping your dick to your thigh chardrian.

[chardrian]

I edited it for both of you.

wheeeeeeeeeee

[tanglewizard]

Kill,

First of all, I didn't say you played horrible. I actually thought that you played a solid aggressive game and respect your fearless aggression. I said I thought you played the hand in question (posted line check) horribly. Also, I shouldn't have used the word "horribly" but rather something like highly minus-EV or something. Just like I said, I thought you were a good aggressive player, but I think you played this hand way too passive and weakly. Even 3bet overshoving like you had been doing to me, I believe would be higher EV than playing the hand this way. Although probably just 3betting me PF would be the highest EV here. Also, regarding being helpful: did you not read my analysis? I wrote several paragraphs explaining my reasoning.

I disclosed your name because you disclosed the Villain's (that is my) cards when that is completely irrelevant to the bet line analysis here. Being results-oriented is obviously not important for checking your line. Instead, in your original post, give the reader's a sense for my open-raising range on the button and any other reads you have (esp. regarding firing cbets and multiple barrels, etc.).

Also, regarding comparing results: although this is one of the best ways of comparing us overall, this still does not show that you are a better player. There are many things to consider such as stakes played, ROI, ITM%, FTs, top 3%, etc., etc. I wouldn't say you are much more profitable than me. I think we can both agree that $24+$2's are both of our main games (as we've both played most of our tourneys in that area). I have played more of these with a higher ROI but I'm not claiming to be more profitable than you. Also, comparing the number of games doesn't make sense. I play a bunch of smaller buyin games and satellites for fun. I've also tried out more $55's, $75's, and $109's than you (which we are both unprofitable at). These would obviously decrease my profit (which amounts Also, I don't really play SNG's, I play some SNG MTTs but I don't claim to know how to play SNG's properly. I'm not sure which tournament database you used but according to officialpokerrankings, I am ranked higher than you (according to their ranking system). However, I am still not claiming that I am better or more profitable than you.

I don't see why this has become some "dickwagging" contest. I came here, and aside from "outing" your name (I apologize) and saying I thought that THIS HAND was played terribly (which I also apologized for above), I don't think I have done anything wrong. I actually gave a lengthy description of why I thought this line was unprofitable. Let's end this fighting and actually try to improve both of our games (as chardrian alluded to). We're clearly both winners but that doesn't mean that we play perfectly and we should work at fixing each other's leaks, especially when asked for advice (such as in this forum).

I apologize for my wrongdoings. No hard feelings?

[KillThatInfidel]

Yea its cool. I dont think that this line was the best, but i still dont think it was horrible. As you said above, i was constantly reraising you and i think you would not respect a reraise and go all in with KQ KJ A9+ 66+ type hands. I cannot fold after a reraise, since i would be pot commited and i am not willing at that point to risk that stack on a toss to pick up the ~2300. Maybe that is wrong of me, but i find that anyway i can think of playing this hand seems too weak or too reckless.

[tanglewizard]

Glad that things are okay now.

Okay, I just analyzed the EV for a few situations preflop. Let me know if there are any mistakes, miscalculations, typos, etc.

Preflop: Pot, P = 1200 = 250 (SB) + 500 (BB) + 9*50 (full table with antes)
Hero has 77 in BB
Effective stack, S = min{stack(Hero),stack(Villain)} = 15446 after posting blind

Assumption: Villain will openraise top 60% of hands when folded to him OTB.

Hero's options:
1. Hero 3bets to 4000 (approx 3x openraise):
Assumption: Villain will shove with {KJ,KQ,A9+,66+} =12.5% of total hands (as estimated in OP's prev. post) and will fold the rest

The range of Villain's 4bet shove is about 20.83% (=12.5%/60%) of his openraising range (top 60%). If we call this shove, we win 16646 (pot + effective stack) 45.878% of the time (by PokerStove). We win -15446 (effective stack) 54.122% of the time (by PokerStove).
That means he will fold to 3bet about 79.16%. In this case, Hero wins 2550 (1200 pot + Villain's 1350 raise).

2. Hero 3bet shoves.
Assumption: Assume Villain will call Hero's shove with {77+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs}=7.8% of total hands. Notice that this range is a subset of the 4bet shoving over 3bet range (i.e. tighter). Obviously this should be the case, due to the "Gap Concept" and that Villain estimates having SOME fold equity when he puts in the last raise.

Now, Villain is calling a shove with 13%(=7.8%/60%) of his open-raising hands. Hero wins 16646 (pot + effective stack) 38.921% of the time and wins -15446 (effective stack) 61.079% of the time. Notice that Hero's equity is lower here when called by Villain since Villain's showdown range is tighter (and stronger hands). However, Villain is folding to a shove 87% (=100%-13%) of the time.

Now, we can simply compute the EV for both situations.

1. Hero 3bets to 4000:
EV = (0.2083)[(0.45878)(16646) + (0.54122)(-15446)] + (0.7916)(+2550)
= -150.59 + 2018.75
= +1868.16 chips
= 12.1% of effective stack

2. Hero 3bet shoves:
EV = (0.13)[(0.38921)(16646)+(0.61079)(-15446)] + (0.87)(+2550)
= -384.21 + 2218.5
= 1834.29 chips
= 11.9% of effective stack

Note how close 3bet/calling and 3bet-shoving are to each other (not even 34 chips in the difference). This is what people mean when they say that "it is close" when deciding between two actions. Remember that these calculations, however, are based on assumptions or estimates. We ESTIMATED the ranges corresponding to the different decisions that the Villain could take. Of course these will never be 100% correct, but after more experience and reads/tells, our estimates will become closer to the true ranges. Because of these assumptions, I would say that both PF options (3bet/calling and 3bet-shoving) are equally valid. A very important parameter is how often Villain openraises when folded to on the button (an estimate of which could be obtained from PokerTracker or a similar program). The reason for this is because it affects all percentages and equities thereafter. If this percentages decreases (i.e. Villain tightens up) then the Villain will fold to a 3bet less often (meaning we don't make as many chips in the case where we 3bet and win uncontested). Also, assuming Villain will still 4bet shove with the same range (although openraising range is tighter) and call a 3bet shove with the same range as above, then we also lose more chips when Villain tightens up (since his all-in range now represents a larger percentage of his total openraising range) and because we lose chips on average at showdown with the estimated ranges and the given stack sizes.

Anyway, in the given situation (BTN raises and we have 77 in the BB), with a Villain who can fire multiple barrels, has a wide range, and can value bet quite lightly, I really think that it is very difficult to play this hand with very high EV OOP (esp. since Villain can control most of the action in position). If however, the same scenario occurred but Villain was stealing from SB and Hero still has 77 in BB, this hand would have MUCH higher EV. Even though calculations have not been done for this flop and many possible actions, turn cards, and river cards (which would take forever and better read on Villain's postflop game required), I think this demonstrates the power of position and how playing hands OOP is so difficult in general (I hear many pros often discuss how much they hate playing OOP in online instructional videos, interviews, TV programs, and blogs).

Anyway, hope that I didn't make any mistakes in the above calculations and that this helps with the analysis. Oh yeah, that program that I described wanting to write (in a previous post above) is basically something that would be able to do all of these calculations for you where you estimate ranges and give necessary details such as holecards, stacksizes, blinds, antes, etc. and then create the betting actions using a graphical user interface and it tells you the EV of different decisions. I really can't wait to write this and get it working, it would make analysis infinitely (word used lightly, obv) easier. Obviously, you can just use a combination of PokerStove and creating scenarios with a spreadsheet or something but I think this program would be much nicer (esp. for non-mathematical poker players).

Oh, another thing I didn't mention above is that even though you make about 12% of your stack when you 3bet (either to 4000 or all-in), you may think that you can pick better spots because if you lose an all-in at SD, you are out of the tournament. I believe that you had a pretty decent chip stack at the time and you might not want to take a chance like this against a bigger stack with the possibility of busting (since you're $EV is much higher if you believe you will cash for a bunch more often enough). Also, one line that wasn't considered was 3betting to 4000 and folding to a shove (which isn't horrible). You risk 4000, leaving yourself with 11446 (~ 23BB). Villain shoves 20.83% of the time and folds 79.16% of the time (where you pick up 2550 chips).

So if we consider the case where we 3bet/fold, we have:
EV = (0.7916)(2550) + (0.2083)(-4000)
= 2018.58 - 833.2
= 1185.38 chips
= 7.7% of effective stack.

Even though we forfeit some EV by playing this way, it is still +EV and ensures that we NEVER go broke on this hand. In the worst case, we are left with ~23BB which is still workable, and could potentially end up with a stack of 17996 = ~36BB and have about the same stack as the Villain (chip leader at the table) thus providing us with more leverage.

[KillThatInfidel]

Heres another hand from this tourney. This is at the final table. Read on the villain is that he is very aggro, but he hadnt made a huge overbet like that yet.

Heros M = 10.59
Full Tilt Poker Game #3991404243: $17,000 Guarantee (29821324), Table 43 - 5000/10000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Holdem - 5:52:31 ET - 2007/10/28
Condensed history provided by the Tournament Trimmer (v1.1.4w) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com
Seat 1: larrold (261,782)
Seat 3: hutchb21 (272,099)
Seat 4: bluntfire420 (108,524)
Seat 5: Hero (211,746)
Seat 9: VILLAIN (255,849)
All players post the ante 1000
Hero posts the small blind of 5,000
tafokints posts the big blind of 10,000
The button is in seat #4
Preflop: Hero dealt 9 A
larrold folds
hutchb21 folds
bluntfire420 folds
Hero calls 5,000
tafokints raises to 100,000
Hero raises to 210,746, and is all in

Good or bad?

[tanglewizard]

I would fold this for several reasons. First of all, like you mention, the Villain has not made a big overbet like this all that you've seen so far. Although you have a strong hand for a blind vs. blind situation 5-handed, I don't think it's strong enough in this situation. His bet is essentially half your stack, that means that if you push overtop, he's getting about 3:1, which means he can't fold ANY hand that he's legitimately raising here. Even if he's dominated, he's getting better than the right odds (unless it's pair domination). You pretty much have NO fold equity. That is, he is making an all-in committing bet. Let's assume that he wouldn't do this with a hand as strong as AA/KK but a range such as {QQ-44,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} (obv this range should be estimated by you, which would probably be more accurate). Anyway, against this range, we only have about 37% showdown equity. That is, we are risking our whole tournament life in a hand where we are not the favourite and we've only invested an extra small blind. I think you can safely fold this and look for a better spot. Another reason is that the table is now 5-handed and the differences in payouts is now very crucial (as the payout is top-heavy and steeply increases). There is still a shorter stack with ~11BB and your stack is not far from the others (even chip leader). That is, you're not desperate to make such a move yet.

If he however raised most times you limped in from SB (that is, even with weak holdings), I think a limp/shove or limp/reraise would be fine here.

[chardrian]

I agree - your only pushing here for value. And that's read based.