AKs vs. limpers who were raised

[mixchange]

MP is very loose preflop and postflop. He has called down some huge 50bb type pots with 2nd pair. However, normally he is not doing the betting. He usually calls people down. Based on PF action, I was thinking he had a set. Normally I'd play that flop much stronger with the straight, flush,overcard possitibilies but warning flags were going off on this one for me. First, I felt the limpers were likely set miners so if they stayed in the hand it was likely because they A) hit their set B) have a middle pair and put me on like AK/AQ.

We don't really have fold equity.

I don't think "ZOMG SHOVE FLOP" is right here, based on circumstances with villain. Also, if CO is also drawing to the flush, we can stack him easily by keeping it cheap.

River IMO is probably a fold, but since pot odds are huge I grudgingly call. how do you play it? Since I called turn maybe he's dropping a blocker vs. a missed FD, but it smells more like a value bet to me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($339)
UTG ($258.20)
MP ($392)
CO ($204.70)
Hero ($212.85)
SB ($228.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
1 fold, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, MP calls $12, CO calls $12.

Flop: ($45) 4, 2, 3 (3 players)
MP bets $10, CO calls $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($75) K (3 players)
MP bets $30, CO calls $30, Hero calls $30.

River: ($165) 4 (3 players)
MP bets $52, CO folds, Hero calls $52.

Final Pot: $269

[Irisheyes]

I like a flop raise here. MP can have like any 2 here IMO and the CO could have 77/88 among other things and just not know what to do with himself. We have somewhere between 12 and 18 outs mak on the flop which makes this a fairly clear raise/call shove on the flop.

[Fnord]

Don't put people who play a wide range of pre-flop hands on sets without a sick read. As people play more hands, fewer are pairs and hence they're much more likely to have something like 2 pair or trips when they're strong.

You must raise up this flop because you have an equity edge and I don't think the hands you're drawing to play really well with lots of money behind. A flush will spook weaker hands (best to get them feeling pot-stuck) and a big pair will sometimes be good but not like to get in lots of money. Also, getting another Ace to fold on the flop might buy you more equity.

I would raise to $60 on the flop, call a shove. Take a free turn card if you blank, otherwise I'm getting in all the money.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Your equity is way too good here to not raise the flop

[benny999]

a weighted range prob gives at least 50% equity on the flop...raising and calling are similar ev...gambool it up!

[Fnord]

raising and calling are similar ev

No, raising is a lot better. Calling put him in this stupid spot.

[benny999]

good point, guess i meant that calling is +ev but raising is better.

[mixchange]

I raise the flop 98% of the time. In this case I did fele like I had a sick read. Now is river a fold given a good read?

also, let's look at the hand as played beyond the obvious "DUDE SHOVE FLOP" answer -- what do we think villains have here? What are we getting value from? I sure don't see fold equity.

[Irisheyes]

You can never have reads that good on fish, they do erratic things. However if your read is that paranormally good then there's no discussion in this hand. Except fold the river given the read.

[gabe]

pick a street and raise it

[Miffed22001]

in most cases we expect to win the pot a large proportion of the time, so doesnt this clearly make it a raise?
I hate every street and agree with raising flop or even turn perhaps

[Fnord]

Dude, it's online poker, it's 6-max and you described your opponents as loose (and probably fairly erratic.) I think you're way over-thinking this.

[Galapogos]

You have to raise this flop. Like Irisheyes said, fish are erratic. Their game changes by the minute. Just because he called down with 2nd pair one hand doesn't mean he's not going to push A high the next one.

[Genitruc]

How do you play 2 black aces here Mix?

[Genitruc]

cuz I'd rather have your hand than 2 black aces

[mixchange]

Forgive me, reading again my read isn't explained properly. Here is my whole read, tell me now what you think

- this villain was loose, but he tended to check/ call when he had a drawing or mediocre hand and bet when he had a strong hand.
- I had seen him limp/call with PP's before, baby suited connectors, a total of 5-6 times. Nothing else.
- Villain did not make big laydowns and would call down all in pots on second or even third best hands
- I felt I could see if my hand panned out cheaply and get paid off anyways. He wasn't shutting down if the flush or straight hit. So I could lose the minumum, and still stack if I got my cards.


ok, so...

- do you think I am overplaying my read? I'm trying really hard to take time and think about opponent more than what I have, not just seeing my cards and jamming flop.

- do you think I should call river?

[benny999]

if he's calling huge bets anyways if you hit a straight or flush or overcard, then go ahead and slow play. but i do think you are too optimistic about this.
also it's sort of a value raise vs anything except a set or straight even though you haven't made a hand yet.
as played it sounds like you should fold on the river, but it's not a big mistake if any to call.

[Fnord]

Yet, you still managed to put yourself into a difficult spot on the river.

The problem I have here is that all your non-flush outs aren't hands you're happy putting a lot of money in with. Hence, I would just bloat it up on that flop and try to save the last bet if you airball twice. Heck, if you're sold on him having set (I still think it's more likely 2pr), you have dirty flush outs.