Small overpair OOP deep in FTP Major

[elipsesjeff]

Reads: Villain is 23/17 and the table has gotten super-aggro. The thought of him having KK-AA here is definitely in my mind.

Seat 1: kailash (397,662)
Seat 2: ulilbosshog (71,148)
Seat 3: CodeRedRulez (290,667)
Seat 4: Keystone_Co (80,179)
Seat 5: lleall (380,756)
Seat 6: FlamingTears (193,098)
Seat 7: ndgroov (70,305)
Seat 8: BIGFLOPPER01 (267,364)
Seat 9: rppkoz (230,016)

Full Tilt (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7. Blinds: 5000/10000/1000
Hero raises to 25,000, 5 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 2, 4, 6 (2 players)
Hero ...

[chardrian]

u have to c-bet it.

[mcatdog]

c/f, he has AA/KK a lot and even we weight them equally to the rest of his range you're still in pretty bad shape. You're 45% vs. a range of 22+, AJ+, QJs, KJs, KQs and I think that's still optimistic, even people who get out of line a lot still respect an UTG raise. Your hand is junk here IMO and I'd rather continue with AK.

[Deanglow]

What is his impression of you? Since you raised UTG, i would represent a big pair. I think bet/f is the best line on the flop.

[elipsesjeff]

u have to c-bet it.

Small to induce a bluff raise or large so that if we do get raised it is a much easier fold?

I'm thinking maybe 31k with the option of 2nd barreling a turn scare card of an Ace/King, or 55k and check/folding any turn.

[chardrian]

Pot has about 75k right?

U have about 265k left and villain has 205k.

U definitely don't want to bet to induce a bluff raise because u have no idea if it's a bluff or not. How much would u bet if u had TT+ here? I'd bet the same amount. (For me that would prolly be 40kish).

As a side note, ur villain's stack size makes any bet that u make sorta irrelevant because any raise he makes is going to put him effectively all-in. (I still don't like the small 30kish bet though cuz that gives your opp incentive to make a bluff we don't really want him to make).

[mcatdog]

Char, Jeff, Dean,

What do you think villain's pre-flop range is and which of those hands do you think he'll fold to a c-bet?

[Deanglow]

Given the read, I think the villain can have any pair higher than ours, AK, and maybe AQs. I think there are a lot of hands we can fold out to a 40k bet on the flop.

[chardrian]

I don't know how many hands jeff has on villain but 23/17 is purty LAGG and the fact that villain is calling on the button when his only move seems to be raise makes putting him on a range tough.

I think it's most likely that he has a low pocket pair, KK, AA (I think he'd raise at least TT-QQ maybe lower), AQ-, or some suited connector or suited A.

The fact that jeff raised utg is only important if the villain is smart enough to realize that. Even if we agree that jeff is only 45% right now, there's enough in the pot that the risk/reward in taking a shot at it I think requires that he follow thru.

Going from 265k to 225k won't cripple jeff. Going from 265k to like 350k sure would be nice tho...

[elipsesjeff]

I don't know how many hands jeff has on villain but 23/17 is purty LAGG and the fact that villain is calling on the button when his only move seems to be raise makes putting him on a range tough.

I think it's most likely that he has a low pocket pair, KK, AA (I think he'd raise at least TT-QQ maybe lower), AQ-, or some suited connector or suited A.

The fact that jeff raised utg is only important if the villain is smart enough to realize that. Even if we agree that jeff is only 45% right now, there's enough in the pot that the risk/reward in taking a shot at it I think requires that he follow thru.

Going from 265k to 225k won't cripple jeff. Going from 265k to like 350k sure would be nice tho...

This is exactly my thought process right now and even during the hand. I played it the worst way possible though if you can guess what way that is.

[KoRnholio]

I played it the worst way possible though if you can guess what way that is.

Check-raise all in would be pretty gross...

[elipsesjeff]

I played it the worst way possible though if you can guess what way that is.

Check-raise all in would be pretty gross...

ty

[elipsesjeff]

Actually, my play was even worse than a check/raise AI.

[KoRnholio]

Actually, my play was even worse than a check/raise AI.

Check, raise, fold to a 3bet?

[elipsesjeff]

Actually, my play was even worse than a check/raise AI.

Check, raise, fold to a 3bet?

That was my plan, (un?)fortunately I called it.